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    AR

Angles

greyabbey

greyabbey

Colt
As I've posted a few times in places elsewhere, I like looking at angles that on their own are not sure fire winners, but might be an aid on top of daily race reading methods (either manual or ratings). In a sense, "angle testing" more than system testing.

While the Horseracebase ratings machine is a little unnecessarily complicated for my liking, I find it very useful to create a basic ratings system and then merge it with angles and see if they might produce something profitable in the long term.

I thought I'd share some ideas below of angles that might just be an edge that's underplayed. I appreciate others may like to keep their own clever ideas to themselves, but if others would like to share, I'd be very interested to hear.
  • Top weights on tight tracks. Courses with tight tracks may be better for top weight horses as the constant turns gives the weight less chance to take effect. Courses like Perth and Stratford on the jumps and Beverley on the flat would be examples.
  • Top weights on downhill tracks. Same principle.
  • Inverse of these on uphill/galloping tracks.
  • Unexposed 3 year olds in 3yo+ races.
  • Horses trying something totally different on handicap debut (eg changing surface, stepping markedly up/down in trip).
  • Frontrunners at certain courses (would love to work with this more if I had the time to code the previous race comments from Racing Post - I think Horseracebase is progressing the idea).
  • Sole course and distance winners.
  • Small yard/jockey combinations with good records.
  • Horses with penalties running on tight tracks/downhill tracks.
Just a few thoughts. I've explored some in detail, some not at all. Feel free to use/share your own.
 
Horses that have come from doing well on the ptp circuit and have been entered into a bumper.
The theory being that they are pretty fit, but used to being confronted with barriers to get over, so once they work out there are no such barriers they are likely to enjoy themselves more than usual and hopefully that will manifest itself in a decent performance.
These are quite often under the radar so you can pick up the occasional big priced winner.
 
:text-goodpost:

I couple I have am working with at the moment are:

Trainers who do well over specific months - Trainers seem to follow the same plan every year and I know from my running background as specific people like to peak at different times of the year. you find the coach (running) or Trainer (horses) will get his whole squad ready at the same time as they will work along side each other and almost peak together.

I also enjoy trying to find acorns .... small things that can turn to bigger proft over time. I like to look for yards who do well in specific class, course and races. Not many selections over the year but group 5 or 6 of these and soon add up :)
 
Yes, and sometimes you can find trainers who aim at picking up certain races - sometimes if you dig a little bit deeper you can find a connection /reason behind it.
 
dave58 said:
Yes, and sometimes you can find trainers who aim at picking up certain races - sometimes if you dig a little bit deeper you can find a connection /reason behind it.
Click to expand...
I have followed certain NH Trainers in certain races at certain courses for years now and never failed to make a profit.

They range from the simple eg, Ascot - all Nov. Chases - N Henderson, to much more complicated, but they are there if you dig deep enough.
 
I avoided mentioning trainer/jockey angles as there are too many to mention and lots of you exploit them better than me, but Geegeez have done some helpful blogs on them. Some ones I keep an eye on.

  • Dalgliesh in flat maidens/novice after a run.
  • Fergal O'Brien's in novices/NHF.
  • Beckett in AW handicaps.
  • Honeyball in handicaps at local tracks (Taunton etc).
 
greyabbey newcomer - if you could identify low drawn front runners over 5F at those AW courses run around a bend eg. Lingfield, Wolverhampton, Kempton and Chelmsford, you would be very, very, rich.

The trick is, of course, in identifying them.

GeeGeez has a very good pace/draw/run style analyser to help but you still need to know the horse's running style, jockey tactics and trainer's strategy to name but a few. Still, if you manage to crack it...you win bigtime.
 
To a point. You're rich until the market figures it out! Hugh Taylor has said as much - he made a very healthy profit from draw biases in the past until the market figures it out. 20% strike rate at 6/1 is brilliant. 20% at 3/1 less so...

Pace is different and less utilised, I agree there. Race comments data from Racing Post etc. (eg: led early, broke well, raced prominently) can be scraped and then coded for the right courses. I'm just not a good enough coder to do it. I think that's basically how Geegeez do it (scraping race comments).
 
You guys are spoiling my surprise fun lol 😂 I literally have a script now running to try determine front runners and will review then to see if I can pull anything out of use.

gambling is always about thinking slightly outside the box and going of the normal path.
 
runnerjp said:
I literally have a script now running to try determine front runners and will review then to see if I can pull anything out of use.
Click to expand...
This was a list of tracks and trip that I pulled from pro-form a couple of years ago where front runners had a significant advantage. (Measured by impact value)

I found that actually predicting the front runners was a little more difficult than it first appeared.

The number after the distance is the impact value ...

IVs.PNG
 
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