• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Analysing Races

K

Kraldrew

Colt
Hi Just thought i would put up here how i analyse a horse race the race is the 1616 at Beverley. A 0-80 hdcp over 10f ish less 13 yds


1 Westernesse won a 0-75 over 8f 2 runs ago
2 Strawman won a 0-85 over 10f OR 82 weight 9.6
3 Casilli won a 0-85 over 8.5f OR 78 weight 10.2
4 Bashful won 2 rces over 8.5f and 10f l2 races OR 70 and 73
5 Frankendael won a nvc C5 over 10f weight 9.4
6 Bobbys Blessing won a nvc C5 over 7.5f
7 Freak Out won a 0-80 over 10f weight 9.9 OR 75
8 Shine On Brendan won a 0-65 weight 10.2 OR 65

So i will now take out the horses i feel are outclassed
Bashful
Frankendael
Bobbys Blessing
Shine on Brendan
I have a bottom line of 6/1 taking out
Westernesse
Strawman
Leaving Casilli CD winner
Freak Out won at Newc on the A/W

I am going to bet on Casilli E/W ran in a 0-90 lto and is 8lb lower than for his last win at 12/1 He has won at the course and distance now below his last winning mark and won on his 4th run last year so expecting a big run
 
Last edited:
According to my ratings, Casilli is drawn well, has the best stats for course and distance wins and has a pace that works for him at this distance. However my speed figures show he is on the decline, his best run was 44 days ago and he hasn't run a quick enough race at all to be competitive here.

My selection is Shine on Brendan. Good draw and my third top rated on speed. He likes to get to the front and has been improving with every run recently and is approaching his top time which puts him into contention here. Got him at 21.0 but I see he has shortened to 13.0's.

Just sharing a different perspective. Your reasoning looks perfectly sound 👍🏻 Good luck with your selection!

Thanks,
SIG
 
Are you sure he is going to get the distance and never won in this class only class 0-65 15lb less than todays race
 
  • Like
Reactions: SIG
Not sure of anything lol. Can only tell you what I have interpreted from my ratings. At 21.0 I thought he was a value each way bet based on the reasons above. We'll know if it was a good call or not around 16.20 tomorrow... 🤣
 
Kraldrew said:
I am going to bet on Casilli E/W ran in a 0-90 lto and is 8lb lower than for his last win at 12/1 He has won at the course and distance now below his last winning mark and won on his 4th run last year so expecting a big run
Click to expand...
Looks like defeat is out of the question; 7/2 from 12/1
 
So the race did pan out as expected Freak Out was one of the 2 i choose but went with Casilli who dawdled at the back but obviously the Class Winners had 1st and 2nd so pleased even though my horse got beat
 
1800 New I have 4 Qualifiers for this race taking only those who got their mark over the distance
Fine Wine
Mondammej
Look Out Louis
One Night Stand

Out of the 4 Mondammej Looks the one being 1 pt below is last win i will not be betting on this one but i would dutch them as have a habbit of picking the wrong one .
 
Looking at the 1740 Chester Paws for thought fav not won a race since 3yr old days 17 runs ago also has not won in class 4 has had wind op but will it make a difference

Metalbolt
Danzan
Maywake
Starshiba
At the moment i have Maywake and Starshiba as the other 2 are below 6/1 I am taking Starshiba out as he is 0-20 on the flat so Maywake would be my choice unles the other 2 lengthen to 6/1 ah maywake 11/2 at the mo will check in te morning
 
Last edited:
Took the 11/2 on Maywake and also fot 7/1 on Danzan had to do Strashiba as he qualifies though not confident with his flat record
 
No luck again
1610 Winsor Class 4 Hdcp 2 horses have achieved the Class
True Courage First run after 244 days so may need the run
Noble Anthem 3lb less than last winning run
 
1610 Hay 6f 0-85 After analyzing and weight adj from the last race these are the ratings i have
Silent Flame 90
Significantly 87
Satin Snake 87
Roundhay Park 84

Sig had his first run back from a lay off in may has not run since which i find odd has tumbled down the weights but am not sure about the days off

Satin Snake last run was over 7.5 f which is 1.5f more than i like

Roundhay Park ran well lr only getting beat a length down 5lbs for that so has a chance

Silent Flame 3.25 3rd lto and dropped a massive 12lbs in an 81 hdcp over 6f this is an 85 but i think should make a bold bid for this @11/2 taking a chance with the weight drop.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top