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An Idea...out of the box!

C

cemosh

Newbie
Hallo,
I've just joint the forum to have some opinions about an idea that came in my mind few days ago.
In advance:
I apologize for my spelling mistakes and my elementary English...coze is just my 3rd language.
I've noticed, a few days ago that it is possible to have nearly 90% of winning rates or loose about 15% ca of the stake if you loose the bet.
I'm like to trade more then betting (although sometimes I do) and by nature I want to know: where the market goes, where I stand with my tradings at any given time, what & when will be my exit point, my profit and my loss etc... What I've noticed is that in a markets like 1 or more goals (or related markets) if we increase the buying weight we can reach the point where betting the same amount we had bet till that point he trade will be almost void (loss of 15%ca. (BTW is noting new seen that is used by stock market traders every day.)
To be more clear: if you back Staking every 0.10 ticks the total stake till that moment on the market 1 or more goal (i.e at 1.10 10u, at 1.20 10u, at 1.30 20u and so on) till odd 1.90 and then you trade out if the match is still 0-0 laying on the same market (or a related market) at @ 2.00 the total stake till that moment . Doing so practically the total price has been mediate at @1.90 loosing only the 10 ticks difference between the mediate back odd 1.90 and lying odd at 2.00 (or back the 0-0 @ 2.00).
NOTE 1 : The good thing is that the winning amounts (if not 0-0) will be the total amount you staked on each step (i.e: if the goal will be scored after 30 min and the odd at that time is 1.23 we will win 3u -as per example above. Several time happen to win at @ 1.60, 1.70 or 1.80 which make the trade very very profitable ).
Sorry but it is much more simple and easy then it seems for any info please ask.
Thanks

PS: Of course there are a few lines that i follow and stick at like: the match's choice, one goal only (even more are expected) at 0-0 @ 2.00 out and move to next match,without hope for the goal to come.
 
cemosh said:
Hallo,
I've just joint the forum to have some opinions about an idea that came in my mind few days ago.
In advance:
I apologize for my spelling mistakes and my elementary English...coze is just my 3rd language.
I've noticed, a few days ago that it is possible to have nearly 90% of winning rates or loose about 15% ca of the stake if you loose the bet.
I'm like to trade more then betting (although sometimes I do) and by nature I want to know: where the market goes, where I stand with my tradings at any given time, what & when will be my exit point, my profit and my loss etc... What I've noticed is that in a markets like 1 or more goals (or related markets) if we increase the buying weight we can reach the point where betting the same amount we had bet till that point he trade will be almost void (loss of 15%ca. (BTW is noting new seen that is used by stock market traders every day.)
To be more clear: if you back Staking every 0.10 ticks the total stake till that moment on the market 1 or more goal (i.e at 1.10 10u, at 1.20 10u, at 1.30 20u and so on) till odd 1.90 and then you trade out if the match is still 0-0 laying on the same market (or a related market) at @ 2.00 the total stake till that moment . Doing so practically the total price has been mediate at @1.90 loosing only the 10 ticks difference between the mediate back odd 1.90 and lying odd at 2.00 (or back the 0-0 @ 2.00).
NOTE 1 : The good thing is that the winning amounts (if not 0-0) will be the total amount you staked on each step (i.e: if the goal will be scored after 30 min and the odd at that time is 1.23 we will win 3u -as per example above. Several time happen to win at @ 1.60, 1.70 or 1.80 which make the trade very very profitable ).
Sorry but it is much more simple and easy then it seems for any info please ask.
Thanks

PS: Of course there are a few lines that i follow and stick at like: the match's choice, one goal only (even more are expected) at 0-0 @ 2.00 out and move to next match,without hope for the goal to come.
Click to expand...

I know ,reading the forum, that there are competent traders and bettors that can help to improve the system (with different markets, entry points critics, suggestions, if as per their experience the could be some problem in the future and so on) I'm accepting all the comments because this is just my last system (paper traded and traded with small stakes) and I have other arrows in my arch to try to compete with the bookies.:) :)
Thanks
 
Hi Cemosh and welcome.

Sorry I have been away from the forum for a few months so may be not up to date with your posts.

I have been trading football for the last few years on and off so should be able to offer some advice and help progress the start.

First of all let me ensure I have this right:

You are drip backing the over 0.5 mg market - so £10 at these points:
Odds Risk Profit
1.10 £10 £1
1.20 £10 £2
1.30 £10 £3
1.40 £10 £4
1.50 £10 £5
1.60 £10 £6
1.70 £10 £7
1.80 £10 £8
1.90 £10 £9

So at this point you will have risked £90 to win £45

You then suggest laying over 0.5 mg at 2.0 for £90 risk??

am I correct so far?
 
Hi runnerjp,

thanks for your help first of all!

Actually I m using 1 or more goal market when there are matches with liquidity but also over 0.5 market is fine...

So far you are not that correct...sorry :)

To be able to reach the @ 1.90 with the total stake that allowing you to back the opposite at @ 2.00 and lose about 10 15% of the total stake is :


Odds Risk Profit
1.10 £10 £1
1.20 £ 20 £4
1.30 £40 £12
1.40 £80 £32
1.50 £160 £80
1.60 £320£192
1.70 £640 £448
1.80 £1280 £1024
1.90 £2560 £2304

stake in back on 0-0 (or U+0.5) 5120u @ 2.00.

I hope I've been more clear.

Cheers!
 
I am lost with the above bit (I get the joke M mike 68 :p)

My initial thoughts are around goal times. Most goals are scored in the second half then teams are attacking more. - Memory serves that when it hits evens its around 75min mark.
 
@runnetlp
the average first goal (that is what really we want) on data of 15000 matches is at around 26th min and the exit time on average is around 65th 70th min of the match (it depends on the match) In your case you can enter around 46 min time and out when 0-0 touch @ 2.00 or less loosing more than 10% of the total stakes plus the exchanges tax . I just ask if there is any way around to charge the price different that what i though to get an early goal/first half goal with better profit seen that odds are at 1.25 1.30 first half.

Hope explained myself enough clearly.

Thanks
 
cemosh said:
@runnetlp
the average first goal (that is what really we want) on data of 15000 matches is at around 26th min and the exit time on average is around 65th 70th min of the match (it depends on the match) In your case you can enter around 46 min time and out when 0-0 touch @ 2.00 or less loosing more than 10% of the total stakes plus the exchanges tax . I just ask if there is any way around to charge the price different that what i though to get an early goal/first half goal with better profit seen that odds are at 1.25 1.30 first half.

Hope explained myself enough clearly.

Thanks
Click to expand...
a big out look for something you thought about three days ago
 
M mike 68

Hi...really you did? may I ask you why or for what you did not considered anymore as strategy? was it not profitable...not easy to follow...liquidity issues or else?
I' m asking you coze more I try it and more I find it an excellent compromise between investment and profit. I use asian odds to select the matches and u can increase the rate to 93 95%. Maybe there is something on it that make the strategy not working or not profitable looong time or something else i couldn't catch yet.
Sorry for my English mistake again....and thanks a lot if you would like to answer.

Cheers!
 
1527838806064.png

Above is the average goal time for each time to either score or concede in the prem league the season just finished.

As you can see the 26 Min mark is deff out as if that was the case you would be better concentrating on the first half market.

I am not saying what you are doing is wrong- infact I like the idea do drip backing the goal markets but the key thing here would be value to me. If the adv goal comes in after 20min would it be wise to skip the market at 1.10, 1.20 knowing a goal is unlikely to be scored during this time?

Also match selection is something to think about - Targeting these games where a goal is more likely in the second half after a slow start when teams start chasing the game.

Have you collected any data on this over the last few days or is it still in theory?
 
runnerjp runnerjp
Hi...yes I did the research on all the major league around the world but most of them are not scheduled on BF unless you dnt use other books loosing in case of 0-0 more then what we are talking about. I know that BPL has high average.
About the match selection i personally use the asianodds site and than I filtering the match based on this.
My point is another and precisely:(seen that with the filter I m using I reach 93 94% I m find with the loss of 10-15% of the 6 7% remaining): How to maximize the stakes especially at lower odds (maintaining the the exit loss).
Thanks
 
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