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all weather thoughts and flat racing

L

lendos

Filly
hi everyone im new on here, i will like to thank mick chesham and mjay on helping me on this site, i will be putting up how i pick my horses on the all weather,im not asking anyone to back them or follow them, i just hope that it might help a few people, i back at most of the all weather but not so much lingfield, i will be putting them on whether they win or lose, i usually look at them on a morning time so will put them on mid morning, i only do mondays to friday but will look at them this saturday as theres been no all weather this week apart from dundalk which i do look at but not many bets like lingfield, i look at lower class handicaps 4 5 and 6 as there tends to be more runners for ew purposes, thanks
 
please forgive my writing, early this morning i looked at the 5-30 at dundalk, the horse im interested in is malaysian but i wont be backing it, its ran 7 times this year 4 times from may to july and after a break 3 times at dundalk. last year it won a mile maiden over 1m making all and just holding on, my impression was it might be better over 7f, out of the 11 horses it beat 8 went on to win a race which is pretty good, in oct 22 it ran in a claiming race over 7f beaten nearly 2l being held up in midfield disputed 2nd 1f out hung left and kept on off a mark of 75 at dundalk, it was claimed by j mcaley who trained the first and second. its next race on the 27 oct over 1m held up behind leaders led over 1f out kept on no match for winner in a claiming race off a mark of 73 at dundalk beaten by timourid who won again on wednesday its next race an apprentice over 1m this time it soon led headed over 1f out and finished over 5l behind the winner at dundalk off a rating of 69. now for the plus signs its back over 7f which i think will suit it best, its down to a mark of 67 with d king claiming 7, d king has ridden 5 winners and ive watched all 5 races and he looks pretty good, so three races back it a mark of 75 effectively its running of a mark of 60 today with d king taking 7lb off, now my negatives im not sure how its going to be ridden today from the front or behind, the second negative is its rpr is going down 74 73 71, it may well be because of running over 1m instead of 7f, and the third negative is going to be four races in a month, i wont be backing it and it may well win but my motto is when in doubt leave it out
 
L lendos you have made some good points for and against Malaysian, and as you have decided to swerve i now hope the animal runs well without winning. :) Close call swerves which then mess on us by winning are a sod but also part of the game and we always tend to recall this type and not the more frequent occasions when we where correct to do so.
 
mick mick thanks mick if its a close call i usually back them ew, my main problem was the rpr, it ran 4 times and its in the summer its rpr declinded, i feel that it may run its best races fresh, then again it might be freshened up with a new stable, if it wins well as you say its a bit of a sod
 
lendos said:
mick mick thanks mick if its a close call i usually back them ew, my main problem was the rpr, it ran 4 times and its in the summer its rpr declinded, i feel that it may run its best races fresh, then again it might be freshened up with a new stable, if it wins well as you say its a bit of a sod
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I am not in a position to comment because its not a race i have looked at but i do get your thinking. :)
 
L lendos i note you made the correct call yesterday when swerving Malaysian. I have a simular situation today but will be swerving on price. I knew as from Thur that Sannie was my only possible so had plenty of time to ponder. Certainly no good thing but i felt there was a case of sorts to be made and compensated by setting a minimum price of 8/1 which tbh i anticipated being available, but this time i have been proved well wrong because yesterday the best EP price was 5/1 and this morning he is currently 10/3 with some. !

So a fuss over nothing and i now hope he runs well but does not win. On Thur i wrote up my thinking ready to post on this forum and while its now no longer relevant i will post it below because it includes some of the aspects i have mentioned recently on other threads in this part of the forum. Old School or back to School. :eek:

Sat 20th Ling 1.45 : Son And Sannie @

A 5 fur 0-80 with 10 run. I had decided for my AW bets this winter to implement a must be a previous course winner filter, but i am always prepared to make exceptions and subject to price this will be one. Sannie has only run once before at this course which was on 21st Nov last season when in a 0-85 over CD he finished a decent 3rd off a 7lbs higher OR than the 75 he runs off here, and showing @ +1 off my ratings he has the makings. True his all in score 2-21 is not inspiring but this does improve to 1-4 on the AW, and running off a LH bend appears to suit as he is 2-7 with but 0-14 without.

Looking at his recent form 3lto he was gambled on and considered an unlucky loser being done a nk in a large field. 2lto he was contesting well above grade in a 0-95, and lto having his first run for a new stable he was slow away and his 2.25 len 5th in a 0-85 at Wolv might be a bit better than the bare finishing position suggests and he was giving 15lbs to the winner.

I note they have put the CPs on when the only previous occasion these where tried they did not help but this may not be a Neg because in that race he was drawn 13 and the winner and 2nd where drawn 3 and 5 with RI commenting that he traveled strongly on the opposite side until losing his position inside the final fur, and i wonder if the wrong side situation was accepted late on and he was eased down.

The stable have produced 77 winners YTD including one last week and a very decent 12-47 25% S/r at Ling, looking longer term it remains there most winsome course and they are 1-1 in this race having won it in 2018. Luke Morris has ridden the animal previously and plenty of winners for this yard. Sannie is drawn 5-10 and judged via same size fields this shows as the best possible box.

There is a likely 3yo hot pot in the race ( Seixas ) who lto won by > 4lens and will be attempting a three timer, but under 9-5 this filly has yet to run in a Hcap or this class 4 grade and while her chance is respected she could be there for the taking. I tried to balance betting against one of my filters plus the CPs question coupled with possible threats from the opposition and arrived at a minimum value price of 8/1.
 
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mick mick looked at your post on son of sarnie and i can see why you would back it, luke morris is not one of my fav jockeys as i think he to harsh whip wise on horses, can i just ask you one thing if sarnie drifts out to about 8/1 would you back it, me personally i would leave it alone but they do win when drifting, i did make the right call yesterday which im pleased about, today i wont be having a bet as wolverhampton the handicaps are to tight, nearly all within 5lb of each other, lingfield im not a fan of but odd times will back one
 
lendos said:
mick mick i see your horse is on the drift
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Indeed and to answer your above question if it gets knocked out to my required 8/1 then yes i shall be backing him. :) I think this is unlikely but live in hope its part of what we do. :)
 
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For what it's worth (not a lot) here are my aw selections for Lingfield:

Lucky Ava L145 won two starts ago and M Dwyer is back on board 15/2.

Weloof L255 won on this track 3 starts back going well clear of the field. Adam Kirby is on Delta River this time but the 7lb claimer can come in handy and hopefully see this horse win. Has been running over further lately and is a tempting 30/1.

Charming Paradise L330 blew up last time over 8f so this 1f less could help and a nice low weight with Georgia Dobie claiming 3lb 25/1.

Good luck everyone.
 
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mick said:
Good write-up and I like the chances of Son and Sannie. Trainer certainly does well with horses obtained from other yards, (although this sprinter was trained by Paul Midgeley, and he certainly knows what he is doing with speed horses). Well handicapped horse and definitely has a chance after good run last time when well-backed


However, there has been a huge market move on Copinet. Probably no value now, but I was very interested in this one's chances, having joined Jane Chapple Hyam,, (a trainer I really rate), from the James Ferguson yard. Is a fairly uexposed horse anyway, and has a C&D novice win. Is also down in class from a Racing League 0-90 race last time out, when not disgraced in fourth over six furlongs.
Copinet returns from a 100 day break today today so has to prove fitness. However, the market move is a strong single that she will be ready today, as is fact that Adam Kirby was an early jockey booking for today's race, Levi Williams rides another yard runner who ran well last time out in another race on the card, and Clive Cox has no runners on the card, so this is a strong pointer to the chances of Copinet, in my opinion. We''ll see!


Jane Chapple-Hyam also has a yard debutant, (previously with Luke McJannet)., in the first, (12.05). That one's a handicap debutant also re-appearing after a break. It's also seen market support at bigger prices, Adam Kirby was ane arly jockey booking for that one too.
She basically has a couple of extremely interesting runners today!
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Okay a couple of selections from Lingfield so far:

11.35 One Last Dance:
One Last Dance is a fairly lightly raced filly with just eight career starts. Only just beaten in a 0-90 class 3 handicap last time over this sort of trip at Wolves twelve days ago. Today races in a 0-75 off the same official mark with Ryan Moore on board for the first time. Richard Hughes' horses were in good form before the mini AW break. Must have a great chance today
Win bet at 11/4

11.35 McCann the Man:
Stable debutant for Jane Chapple Hyam, having made three novice starts for Luke McJannet. Makes handicap debut today, having not raced since June. However. best of three novice runs was the only all-weather one, (on this surface at Chelmsford over seven furlongs). Steps up in trip to 1m2f furlongs today, which is a big doubt on breeding, (although was staying on over seven in that aforementioned Chelmsford race). Big factor in this one's favour is the big upgrade in trainer, together with fact Adam Kirby was booked early for this ride. Has seen market support but probably worth a win bet stil, (may bomb out), at current price
WIN bet at 11/1


12.35 Lingfield Iconic Queen:
Iconic Queen is a potential improver stepped up to 1 mile for the first time since flop on soft ground in Listed grade at Pontefract as a 2 year old last autumn, However, shaped clearly as if step up to one mile would suit last time when only sixth of eight at Chelmsford after a 99 day break. However,got no run through in closing stages that day so run is a lot better than form figure suggests. Iconic Queen is out of very good one-eyed racemare Barshiba and is half-sister to Group 1 winner Arabian Queen. Good chance of improvement today
E/way bet at 15/2
 
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Just noticed Clive Cox does have another runner on the card - in the 2.20. Doh!
That one interestingly has Hector Crouch aboard, whilst Adam Kirby is on racecourse debutant Little Raven for George Boughey. That one has also been very well supported in the market
 
I notice one of the Johnny Butler horses in the 2.55 is attracting money at big prices. Won off mark of 77 at Wolves a year ago at a mile. Steps up to 7 furlongs today on fourth start for yard, (first three runs at 6 furlongs). Ridden by Grace McEntee, George Wood and Michael Beresford first three starts for yard; Danny Muscutt takes the ride.
Trainer's runners often dangerous when backed. Has been backed in to 12/1 from 25/1. Could be worth a dabble?

Winnetka for Tony Carroll looks very solid but is pretty weak in market. 11/2 looks a big price to me
 
hi mattyboy and keerching best of luck with your horses, just looked at your 12-35 selection iconic queen ran in a 0-80 last time out with 9st 9 today 9st 1, today its 0-85 but with lady rockstar out of the race its basically a 0-80, so if it improves for the mile must be in with a shout best of luck with it, mick hope sarnie drifts for you
 
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