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Aintree meeting plus Grand National

quiet gambler

quiet gambler

Filly
Hi

I see there is no Grand National thread so chose to start one.

I like Weveallbeencaught 200/1 a lot. I thought he ran well finishing 4th to Cruz Control, in a chase at Aintree last year. He also ran well at Cheltenham and has other good form. He is low in the list but hope he gets in. If not I think they could run him, in the Topham Chase,.

I also like Imperial Saint 100/1 a lot, and has good form. Hope he gets in the Grand National.

Firefox run 125 when 6th in 2026 Cheltenham Gold Cup, on my ratings. Firefox run 129 on my ratings, when 4th in the Irish Gold Cup, beaten by Fact To File 142 3/4. Firefox is 66/1.

Please feel free to put your Aintree meeting and Grand National selections here or chat.
 
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numbercrunching said:
Would Fact To File go up against Jonbon? Nicky sounds keen about Jonbon trying the trip (if he comes out of Cheltenham well enough).
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I thought that Jonbon could run at 3 miles with King George as an option. JP might run Fact To File in the Melling Chase. But if Jango Baie is running in the Bowl, is this stable running another from their stable, against him?
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Mumm Melling Chase 3.30 10th April.

Solness 1st 161 2024 Leopardstown Paddy's Rewards Club Chase, 1st 158 1/2 February 2025 and 1st 157 2025 Leopardstown Paddy's Rewards Club Chase. If Solness handles tight track at Aintree and 2 and a half miles, for me a canter. Yes, I say that! If it was Leopardstown, I would pile in. Because of unknowns, might not be so extravagant. Is Solness running? I see he is available at 25/1. I would say, he should be no bigger than 5/1.

Next best Libberty Hunter. Run 144, 2nd in Champion Chase. Again, if he is handling tight track and 2 and a half miles. Is Libberty Hunter running? I see he is available at 50/1. I would say he should be no bigger than 10/1.

Can't fathom Heart Wood. He took a Ryainair Chase because Fact To File never run. Heart Wood run 134 3/4, 2nd in the 2025 Ryanair Chase, beat 9 lengths by Fact To File 143 3/4. Heart Wood has been taking small listed races, in Ireland. There are others that are finishing in front of him, also.
 
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quiet gambler said:
What about the Bowl race.

I assume Jango Baie is running. Is Fact To File running as he never ran at Cheltenham? Is Aintree too tight for him?
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2.55 Aintree: The Racing Welfare Bowl Chase (Grade 1).

Key Historical Trends & Preps​

The Aintree Bowl is the ultimate post-Cheltenham heavyweight clash, and the trends paint a very clear picture of what profile succeeds here:

  • The Gold Cup Redemption: The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the dominant feeder race, producing an incredible 15 past winners. Horses dropping slightly in trip from that gruelling test thrive here. This points a massive neon sign directly at Jango Baie (2nd in the Gold Cup last month).
  • The Age Bracket: Prime-age chasers absolutely dominate. 8-year-olds and 9-year-olds have won 13 of the last 30 renewals. Conversely, 11-year-olds (like Protektorat and Pic D'Orhy) have a much tougher time, with only 3 wins from 22 attempts (14%).
  • Market Position: The cream rises to the top in small-field Grade 1s. The Favourite has a 36% win rate, and the 2nd Favourite sits at 27%.

Pace Forecast & IPS Tactical Breakdown​

In a 5-runner field around Aintree's flat, galloping track, tactical positioning is everything. It will likely be a Steady to Even Pace, turning into a sprint over the final three fences.

Running StyleHorsesTactical Outlook
Front Runners (IPS 1)Pic D'Orhy, ProtektoratThey will dictate terms. Pic D'Orhy loves to bowl along and use his jumping, while Protektorat was ridden aggressively to win at Kelso last time. If they take each other on, they could set it up for the stalkers.
Mid-Division (IPS 3)Spillane's TowerThe Tactical Sweet Spot. He will sit perfectly in the slipstream of the two veterans, saving maximum energy before utilizing his turn of foot.
Towards Rear (IPS 4)Jango Baie, Impaire Et PasseThey will be dropped out. In a 5-runner race, being at the back isn't a massive territorial disadvantage, but they will need the front two to ensure a true gallop so it doesn't turn into a messy sprint.
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The Contenders: Data Profiles & Comment Analysis​

1. Jango Baie (FR) (Odds: 4/5 - Fav)​

  • Timeform Data: TFR 178p | Top Tfig: 167
  • IPS Profile: 4kr (Towards Rear / Travelled Well / Responds Well)
  • The Verdict: The heavy favourite and the class of the field. He hits the ultimate trend having finished a brilliant 2nd to Gaelic Warrior in the Cheltenham Gold Cup 27 days ago. He proved he stays 3m2f, he travels powerfully ('k'), and he responds to pressure ('r'). The 'p' on his 178 rating suggests he is still improving. He is the clear standard-setter.

2. Spillane's Tower (IRE) (Odds: 5/1)​

  • Timeform Data: TFR 177 | Top Tfig: 158+
  • IPS Profile: 3k (Mid-Division / Travelled Well)
  • The Verdict: The major threat to the favourite. He bypassed Cheltenham completely and arrives incredibly fresh (75 days off) since winning the Cotswold Chase. He sits in the prime 8-year-old age bracket and maps perfectly in mid-division (IPS 3). His flat-track speed makes him highly dangerous at 5/1.

3. Impaire Et Passe (FR) (Odds: 9/2)​

  • Timeform Data: TFR 173 | Top Tfig: 157+
  • IPS Profile: 4l (Towards Rear)
  • The Verdict: Willie Mullins' enigma. He pulled up in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham last month, looking completely out of sorts. However, his record at this Aintree meeting is a flawless 2-2 (won the Aintree Hurdle and the Manifesto Novices' Chase). If the flat track revives him, he has the raw talent to feature, but he comes with massive risk attached.

4. Protektorat (FR) (Odds: 13/2)​

  • Timeform Data: TFR 163 | Top Tfig: 168
  • IPS Profile: 1x (Led / Prone to Mistakes)
  • The Verdict: The 11-year-old veteran. He won the 2024 Ryanair and arrives off a win at Kelso. He skipped Cheltenham this year to be kept fresh for Aintree, but he faces a brutal age trend and must fend off Pic D'Orhy for the early lead.

5. Pic D'Orhy (FR) (Odds: 12/1)​

  • Timeform Data: TFR 162 | Top Tfig: 163+
  • IPS Profile: 1 (Led)
  • The Verdict: Another 11-year-old. He is a phenomenal 2m4f horse (won the Melling Chase here in 2023), but stepping up to 3m1½f in a Grade 1 is a monumental stamina question mark. If he tries to lead this field over this trip, he is highly likely to fade late.

Final Tactical Summary & Staking Plan​

This race looks like a straightforward clash between the battle-hardened Gold Cup runner-up (Jango Baie) and the fresh, tactically advantaged Irish raider (Spillane's Tower). The two 11-year-olds will likely set the pace but are highly vulnerable to the younger, classier closers.

  • The Banker: Jango Baie (4/5). He has the best form in the book, the highest rating (178p), and perfectly matches the Gold Cup trend that dominates this race. He is a very solid odds-on play.
  • The Value / Exacta Anchor: Spillane's Tower (5/1). Missing Cheltenham to target this race was a shrewd move by his connections. He will be stalking the pace and has the cruising speed to capitalize when the veterans tire.
  • The Tactical Lay: Pic D'Orhy (12/1). Laying a 2m4f specialist who is stepping up to 3m1½f at the age of 11 in a Grade 1 is a statistically cast-iron strategy.
Suggested Exotic: A straight Exacta of Jango Baie to beat Spillane's Tower.
 
My first attempt at this years Grand National as per basic Van der Wheil.

1. I Am Maximus 3* (8/1)
4. Grangeclare West 2* (10/1)
31. Panic Attack 3* (12/1)
13. Iroko 3* 14/1)
33. Johnnywho 4* (14/1)
22. Jagwar 5* (14/1)

My three for now: Jagwar, Johnnywho, Panic Attack
 
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Jackform said:
My first attempt at this years Grand National as per basic Van der Wheil.

1. I Am Maximus 3* (8/1)
4. Grangeclare West 2* (10/1)
31. Panic Attack 3* (12/1)
13. Iroko 3* 14/1)
33. Johnnywho 4* (14/1)
22. Jagwar 5* (14/1)

My three for now: Jagwar, Johnnywho, Panic Attack
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no VDW involved just pedigree/past runs/jumping ability
Jagwar
Jonnywho
Oscars Brother(seriously needs to improve its jumping)
Grangeclare West (Too old ???)
Nick Rockett(is no Red Rum or Tiger Roll)
 
For me this day is right up there as the first day of any festival, certainly on a par with Royal Ascot Tuesday.

The Aintree Hurdle has been a very strong trends race since 2012. It wasn't run in 2020, Covid, and there were no qualifiers in 2024.

12-13 WINNERS HAD RUN AT CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL LAST TIME.
13-13 WINNERS HAD WON A GRADED RACE.
Those that hadn't won a Graded race are 0-43.
13-13 WINNERS CAME FROM THE FIRST FOUR IN THE BETTING.
Trying to catch one outside the first four in the betting has resulted in 0-39 with just five places.

Grouping the three trends together has found 12 winners in 12 renewals .

This year The New Lion and Brightertimesahead qualify.

The record of mares under the above trends reads 3-4 and the defeat was Epatante who was 14/1 second favourite behind Constitution Hill who was 1/8.

Brightertimesahead was half a length in front of The New Lion at Cheltenham, She 3lbs clear at the top of Timeform ratings with The New Lion second top rated.
Brightertimesahead beat Lossiemouth at Leopardstown recording a Timeform speed figure of 175, she has a 184 on her cv too. She won the Mersey Novices Hurdle over course and distance two years ago and the mares allowance should enable Brighterdaysahead to give Gordon Elliot his first winner of this race. Denise Foster won this with Abracadabras when Elliot was banned.
 
By cross-referencing the Timeform In-Running Pace Symbols (IPS) and the detailed RaceIQ jumping metrics, we can map out a blisteringly fast and highly attritional 2m Red Rum Handicap Chase:

  • The Aggressive Forcers: Javert Allen (IPS 2f, 1kj, 1k) and Highlands Legacy (IPS 4p, 2, 3kj) map to immediately contest the lead. Javert Allen disputed the lead and led at Cheltenham and Newbury, while Highlands Legacy chased the leaders early before hitting the front.
  • The Elite Jumper: Javert Allen has staggering early jumping metrics. When leading at Cheltenham, he gained +13.79L purely through his jumping, clocking the fastest Time in Envelope (4.74s) and Recovery Time (0.69s). At Newbury, he gained +14.23L and had a flawless 100% Positive Jump rate. He will apply immense pressure on the field at their fences.
  • The Mid-Division Trackers: Inthepocket (IPS 4kx, 2, 2p), Jasko Des Dames (IPS 3, 3x, 2), and Ryan's Rocket(IPS 5, 4kx, 3) map to sit just behind this leading wave. They will need to jump accurately to avoid losing touch as Javert Allen forces the issue.
  • The Deep Closers: Stencil (IPS 5Ps, 5kj, 4) and Sans Bruit (IPS 2, 4l, 2) have profiles suggesting they may be held up. Stencil was "raced well off the pace" and "pulled hard" last time out, while Sans Bruit has been "raced off the pace" and "labouring" recently.

The Upgraded Master Matrix (Fully Locked In)​

Here is the permanently locked-in tactical master matrix for our elite 7-horse retained field. It integrates the live-odds Bowers Rating, the CCR (Class Ceiling Rating), algorithmic PR% (capped at 100%), full TFR/Tfig splits, detailed RaceIQ metrics, and the full, unedited Timeform comments.

HorseBowers & CCRTFR / Tfig (Last 3)Algorithmic PR% (Last 3)Detailed RaceIQ Metrics (Last 3)Full Timeform Comments & IPS (Most Recent First)
1 InthepocketBowers:8.0
CCR:150.0		TFR:146, 143, 124
Tfig:-, 100, 127		0%, 25%, 35%
(Class ceiling / Fell last time)		Top Spd:36.48mph, 32.28mph, 32.51mph
Fin Spd %: -, 101.47%, 101.90%
Lgths Gained Jmp:-3.09L, -0.95L, +0.49L		IPS: 4kx, 2, 2p (Mid-Division Tracker)

1. (F/20, 6/1) looked an interesting runner returning to less testing ground and, with waiting tactics back in use, was in the process of running well when departing... held up, travelled well, slightly awkward first... headway approaching straight, yet to be asked for effort when fell 2 out.
2. (5/14, 16/1) turned in his best effort in a while, seeing things out better than of late having typically gone with plenty of enthusiasm; close up, went on third, headed 3 out.
3. (5/12, 15/2) easy to back, was below his best but, at least, seems to be taking his racing a bit better this season; chased leaders, took strong hold, close up entering straight.
5 StencilBowers:15.5
CCR:138.0		TFR:115, 135, 130
Tfig:114, 133, 128		10%, 100%, 100%
(Novice stepping into open handicap)		Top Spd:35.81mph, 33.77mph, 33.04mph
Fin Spd %:100.49%, 104.05%, 102.64%
Lgths Gained Jmp:+5.03L, +14.40L, +3.76L		IPS: 5Ps, 5kj, 4 (Held Up / Strong Traveller)

1. (10/18, 15/2) wasn't seen to best effect from right out the back and leaves the impression there's still a bigger effort in him, probably back around 2m considering his free-going nature; slowly into stride, raced well off the pace, pulled hard, some headway before 2 out.
2. (1/5, 6/5F) continues to look a smart prospect, impressive in landing this relatively simple task - he'd be an interesting runner if saved for the Red Rum... cruised clear after taking over between the last 2 to win with plenty in hand.
3. (2/4, 9/4) in first-time hood, again wasn't seen to advantage, conceding first run to the winner and making a mistake at a crucial stage; held up, took keen hold, not fluent seventh.
7 Sans BruitBowers:17.0
CCR:141.0		TFR:123, 119, 123
Tfig:-, 109, 106		35%, 10%, 15%
(Previous winner / Severe form decline)		Top Spd:32.93mph, 35.09mph, 36.05mph
Fin Spd %:99.47%, 100.83%, 98.68%
Lgths Gained Jmp:-5.61L, -6.45L, -4.41L		IPS: 2, 4l, 2 (Mid-Division / Fading)

1. (4/6, 11/1) is yet to fire this season, though has come good in the spring in each of the last 2 seasons and could be potentially very well handicapped by then; chased leader, left in front sixth, brushed aside approaching 2 out.
2. (4/7, 12/1) continues out of sorts, going with little zest and taking an age to get past Calgary Tiger; raced off the pace, labouring back straight, slow eighth, lost touch.
3. (5/7, 11/1) is yet to fire this season, not asked to lead this time... chased leaders, shaken up 3 out, weakened home turn.
8 Highlands LegacyBowers:19.0
CCR:132.0		TFR:129, 129, 127
Tfig:-, 111, 126		100%, 100%, 100%
(Progressive / Improving jumper)		Top Spd:33.05mph, 33.53mph, 33.93mph
Fin Spd %:103.26%, 106.13%, 103.50%
Lgths Gained Jmp:+4.32L, +3.36L, +4.23L		IPS: 4p, 2, 3kj (Prominent / Traveller)

1. (1/6, 11/8F) resumed winning ways from a 3 lb higher mark... the ease in which he went through the race suggesting he has an even bigger effort in him; waited with, took strong hold, awkward fifth, loomed up 3 out.
2. (2/6, 13/8F) didn't jump with the same accuracy on this occasion but continued his most encouraging start over fences nonetheless; handy, not fluent 4 out, shaken up approaching 2 out, untidy there, switched before last, ran on.
3. (2/9, 4/1) has made an excellent start to his chasing career... waited with, jumped well, smooth headway 3 out, ridden next, stayed on.
6 Jasko Des DamesBowers:26.0
CCR:134.0		TFR:126, 100, 134
Tfig:127, 57, 120		30%, 0%, 100%
(Erratic form / Needs Good ground)		Top Spd:35.29mph, 38.06mph, -
Fin Spd %:101.18%, 100.21%, -
Lgths Gained Jmp:+3.12L, -2.34L, -		IPS: 3, 3x, 2 (Tracker)

1. (5/20, 33/1) showed the benefit of a recent run, occupying the same position as in this race 12 months earlier, at a push possibly making his effort a bit sooner than ideal; in touch, upsides approaching straight.
2. (12/14, 18/1) might have needed the run after 3 months off but ran poorly even so; mid-division, lost place before 4 out, behind when bad mistake last.
3. (2/9, 9/4F) is progressing into a very useful second-season chaser... close up, chased leader before straight, left behind by winner from last but did enough to keep Brookie at bay.
9 Ryan's RocketBowers:26.0
CCR:133.0		TFR:106, -, 133
Tfig:101, -, 131		0%, 0%, 100%
(Needed the run / Won over C&D)		Top Spd:34.81mph, 34.77mph, 32.89mph
Fin Spd %:97.91%, -, 103.03%
Lgths Gained Jmp:-6.64L, +3.13L, +9.40L		IPS: 5, 4kx, 3 (Mid-Division / Bounced last out)

1. (6/7, 11/2) was notably easy to back and ran poorly after 11 weeks off... the return to further merely a side issue given how he shaped; dropped out, not always fluent, mistake tenth, labouring twelfth, beaten 3 out.
2. (UR/7, 7/4F) was sent off favourite and still tanking along when he departed... held up, travelled well, closing when mistake and unseated seventh.
3. (1/10, 18/1) proved better than ever after 8 months off, always in the right place and picking off the pace-forcers on the run-in.
🟢 13 Javert Allen 🟢Bowers:28.0
CCR:127.0		TFR:112, 123, 127
Tfig:100, 119, 125		0%, 100%, 100%
(Elite front-running jumper)		Top Spd:33.10mph, 34.97mph, 33.29mph
Fin Spd %:100.72%, 104.46%, 100.60%
Lgths Gained Jmp:+6.32L, +13.79L, +14.23L		IPS: 2f, 1kj, 1k (Dominant Jumper / Dictator)

1. (5/9, 3/1) is better than this, ridden with less dash kept to this trip but still not getting home; tracked pace from second, close up when pushed along entering straight, weakened; forcing tactics back around 2m ought to come next.
2. (3/11, 9/2) is shaping up well still relatively early in his chasing career but his Cheltenham Festival target ought to be the Grand Annual back down in trip, with his enthusiastic demeanour and attacking jumping surely better served by 2m... made running, jumped boldly, went with enthusiasm.
3. (2/10, 3/1F) again ran well, a lot to like about an effort that saw him outlast the other pace-forcer; disputed lead, travelled fluently, edged ahead briefly last, kept on.
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The Tactical Verdict: Good to Soft Ground​

To answer your specific question regarding which horse goes best on Good to Soft ground, we look at the retained field's profiles:

  • Inthepocket: 1 win and 2 places from 4 runs on Good to Soft.
  • Stencil: 0 runs on Good to Soft (wins on Soft and Good).
  • Sans Bruit: 0 wins and 2 places from 7 runs on Good to Soft.
  • Highlands Legacy: 1 win and 2 places from 4 runs on Good to Soft.
  • Jasko Des Dames: 0 wins and 1 place from 3 runs on Good to Soft.
  • Ryan's Rocket: 1 win and 1 place from 3 runs on Good to Soft.
  • Javert Allen: 1 win and 3 places from 6 runs on Good to Soft.
Both Highlands Legacy and Javert Allen have proven strong form on Good to Soft ground. However, the RaceIQ and Timeform data reveal a massive tactical advantage for one of them.

🟢 Javert Allen (7/1) is the definitive tactical play. Timeform explicitly noted last time out that "forcing tactics back around 2m ought to come next." He is dropping back down to his optimal 2m trip. His RaceIQ metrics when forcing the pace over 2m are spectacular: he gained +13.79L jumping at Cheltenham and +14.23L at Newbury, clocking the fastest recovery times in the field. He thrives on Good to Soft ground and maps to get an uncontested lead where he can jump his rivals into submission. Even though his Bowers Rating (28.0) puts him at the bottom of the retained list, his elite, aggressive jumping profile makes him the perfect anchor.

Inthepocket (7/1) is the logical Exacta partner. He holds a massive class edge with a 150.0 CCR. He was "in the process of running well" when falling at Cheltenham and has previously won a Grade 1 novice hurdle over this course and distance. He maps to track Javert Allen's strong pace and has the class to challenge late.

Highlands Legacy (5/1) is progressive but lacks the elite jumping metrics of Javert Allen (gaining a modest +4.32L, +3.36L, +4.23L) to truly dominate this field. Sans Bruit (3/1) is the defending champion but is in severe form decline (PR% 35%, 10%, 15%).
 
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