AustinDillon75
Colt
Day 10 of our run. Today there's a 77% correlation to the market. The Chester card for today attached.
Let's see how we go.
Let's see how we go.
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AustinDillon75
Colt
I've asked Gemini for an assessment of how we are doing so far and here it is. Forgive me for it being in dollars.
Based on the data provided (379 valid bets), here are the calculated scoring metrics and a performance assessment.
The performance is currently exceptional. A yield of $13.35\%$ over 379 bets is significantly higher than what is typically expected from a long-term sustainable strategy. The "edge" is coming primarily from the mid-price range (BSP between $3.5$ and $8.0$), where you are seeing significantly more winners than the market prices imply.
How likely is it to continue?
The p-value of $0.099$ is the most important number for sustainability. It indicates that there is a $9.9\%$ chance that these results have been achieved through pure luck (variance) rather than a genuine skill-based edge.
The strategy is performing very well. To increase confidence in its continuation, you should monitor the next 200–300 bets. If the yield remains above $5\%$ and the p-value drops below $0.05$, you can be much more certain that the performance is due to a sustainable edge over the market.
Based on the data provided (379 valid bets), here are the calculated scoring metrics and a performance assessment.
1. Accuracy & Calibration Scores
These metrics evaluate how well the implied probabilities (from the BSP) match the actual outcomes.- Brier Score: $0.1941$
- This measures the mean squared difference between the predicted probability and the actual result. For context, a score of $0.0$ is a perfect prediction, and $0.25$ is essentially "guessing" in a 50/50 scenario. A score of $0.19$ in horse racing is quite strong, indicating that the market prices (and your selection process) have a good predictive relationship with the results.
- Log Loss: $0.5714$
- Log loss penalizes confident wrong predictions more heavily. This value is relatively low, suggesting that the outcomes are generally within the "expected" range of the market prices without too many massive upsets where a high-probability horse failed.
- Chi-Square Statistic: $15.32$
- This is a goodness-of-fit test. With 10 bins of data, a value of $15.32$ (p-value $\approx 0.08$) suggests that while there is some deviation between expected and observed wins, the calibration is reasonably tight. However, the deviations we do see are in your favor (observed wins exceeding expected wins in specific price brackets).
2. Performance Summary
| Metric | Value |
| Total Bets | 379 |
| Returns (Yield) | $13.35\%$ |
| Actual Strike Rate | $32.45\%$ |
| Expected Strike Rate | $22.70\%$ |
| t-statistic | $1.29$ |
| p-value | $0.099$ |
3. Assessment & Sustainability
How well is it doing?The performance is currently exceptional. A yield of $13.35\%$ over 379 bets is significantly higher than what is typically expected from a long-term sustainable strategy. The "edge" is coming primarily from the mid-price range (BSP between $3.5$ and $8.0$), where you are seeing significantly more winners than the market prices imply.
How likely is it to continue?
The p-value of $0.099$ is the most important number for sustainability. It indicates that there is a $9.9\%$ chance that these results have been achieved through pure luck (variance) rather than a genuine skill-based edge.
- The Positive: You are beating the expected strike rate by nearly $10\%$. The cumulative PNL curve shows a consistent upward trajectory rather than being driven by one or two "lucky" longshot winners.
- The Caution: In statistical testing, we generally look for a p-value below $0.05$ to declare a strategy "proven." At $0.099$, you are in a "grey area." It is very likely you have an edge, but 379 bets is still a relatively small sample for horse racing.
The strategy is performing very well. To increase confidence in its continuation, you should monitor the next 200–300 bets. If the yield remains above $5\%$ and the p-value drops below $0.05$, you can be much more certain that the performance is due to a sustainable edge over the market.
AustinDillon75
Colt
That was a very attritional day and hard fought day of winning and losing. No losing run of more than 4, but only 2 instances of back to back winners.
Yesterday was 33 races, 12 winners and a BSP profit of 0.53pts. The biggest profit was actually Adonius in the first race of the day, a 4.02, and exasperatingly, our stake on Maillot Blanc was halved due to him finishing in a dead heat for first. Still, we crack on.
TOP RATEDS AFTER DAY 10
393 RUNS
125 WINS
31.8% STRIKE RATE
41.29 PTS TO BSP
10.7% RETURN ON INVESTMENT
I am also recording the top rated horses finishing in the frame too, we've had 72 seconds and 51 thirds, so it's trapping the first two 50.1% of the time and the first three 63.1% of the time. That is pretty good, after 10 days. We just need a couple of bigger priced winners for lift off, we are due and of 37 that went off double digits to BSP we've had 5 second place ones. It just needs a couple of them to become winners now.
If we average all the 10 day periods of the backtesting, this is in the 43rd percentile for profit (49pts the middle), the 60th percentile for strike rate and the 38th percentile for return on investment (55pts the middle). So you can see how a couple of decent winners will make all the difference - they are almost certainly coming.
Note I'm taking the value bets off for now for time reasons and also because it's flagging anything the first 3 of the ratings no matter the number of runners. It needs adjusting so that it can only be a pick if the each way terms would justify it. I don't think it's right to make the 3rd ranked as a value pick if there are only 4 runners.
So today's picks attached and the Chester racecard. An 80.2% market correlation with morning lines.
Yesterday was 33 races, 12 winners and a BSP profit of 0.53pts. The biggest profit was actually Adonius in the first race of the day, a 4.02, and exasperatingly, our stake on Maillot Blanc was halved due to him finishing in a dead heat for first. Still, we crack on.
TOP RATEDS AFTER DAY 10
393 RUNS
125 WINS
31.8% STRIKE RATE
41.29 PTS TO BSP
10.7% RETURN ON INVESTMENT
I am also recording the top rated horses finishing in the frame too, we've had 72 seconds and 51 thirds, so it's trapping the first two 50.1% of the time and the first three 63.1% of the time. That is pretty good, after 10 days. We just need a couple of bigger priced winners for lift off, we are due and of 37 that went off double digits to BSP we've had 5 second place ones. It just needs a couple of them to become winners now.
If we average all the 10 day periods of the backtesting, this is in the 43rd percentile for profit (49pts the middle), the 60th percentile for strike rate and the 38th percentile for return on investment (55pts the middle). So you can see how a couple of decent winners will make all the difference - they are almost certainly coming.
Note I'm taking the value bets off for now for time reasons and also because it's flagging anything the first 3 of the ratings no matter the number of runners. It needs adjusting so that it can only be a pick if the each way terms would justify it. I don't think it's right to make the 3rd ranked as a value pick if there are only 4 runners.
So today's picks attached and the Chester racecard. An 80.2% market correlation with morning lines.