AD's daily selections

[AustinDillon75]

More for fun these ones as the value shouts, I'm just asking Gemini for the each way returns with these so don't whack me over the head if I'm wrong. I quite like the idea of doing a 1pt win, 1pt each way on these. A couple of them shortened from the morning line odds.

(When will Golden Ace get the credit from the market her performances actually deserve?)

1pt Win Stake on All Selections​

Total Outlay: 19 selections at 1pt Win = 19.00 pts

Here are the returns for the three horses that won their races:

Horse	Result	Odds	Return (1pt Win)
Loud And Proud	WON	12/1	13.00 pts
My Gift To You	WON	9/4	3.25 pts
Arthurs Sixpence	WON	6/1	7.00 pts
Total			23.25 pts

Final Balance (Win Only)​

• Total Staked: 19.00 pts
• Total Returned: 23.25 pts
• Net Outcome: +4.25 pts

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Combined Totals (1pt Each Way + 1pt Win)​

If you placed the 1pt Each Way bet and an additional 1pt Win bet on every horse (a total stake of 3pts per race):

• Total Staked: 57.00 pts
• Total Returned: 71.13 pts (47.88 pts from E/W + 23.25 pts from Win)
• Overall Net Outcome: +14.13 pts

 

[AustinDillon75]

Total Outlay
10 selections staked at 1pt Win + 1pt Each Way (which equals 2pts to Win and 1pt to Place, totaling 3pts per race) = 30.00 pts

Actual Field Sizes and Place Terms
Here are the official field sizes from May 2, 2026, which lock in the exact place terms for your successful bets:

• 13:55 Uttoxeter (Final Surprise): 7 runners. Standard terms for 5-7 runners are 1/4 odds, 2 places.
• 16:10 Newmarket (Ten Carat Harry): 11 runners (Handicap). Standard handicap terms for 8-11 runners are 1/5 odds, 3 places.
• 16:15 Punchestown (Place De La Nation): 4 runners. Fields of 1-4 runners are strictly Win Only.
• 18:27 Doncaster (Papa Cocktail): 6 runners. Standard terms are 1/4 odds, 2 places.
• 16:40 Hexham (Mr Globalist): 6 runners. Finishing 3rd in a 6-runner field means the place bet loses, as only the first two places are paid.

Returns Breakdown​

Time	Horse	Result	Odds	Terms Applied	Return
13:55	Final Surprise (IRE)	WON	3/1	1/4 odds (7 runners)	9.75 pts
16:10	Ten Carat Harry	WON	28/1	1/5 odds (11 runners)	64.60 pts
16:15	Place De La Nation	WON	10/1	Win Only (4 runners)	33.00 pts
18:27	Papa Cocktail	2nd	12/1	1/4 odds (6 runners)	4.00 pts

Calculation Details:

• Final Surprise: 2pts Win @ 3/1 (8.00 pts) + 1pt Place @ 3/4 (1.75 pts) = 9.75 pts.
• Ten Carat Harry: 2pts Win @ 28/1 (58.00 pts) + 1pt Place @ 28/5 (6.60 pts) = 64.60 pts.
• Place De La Nation: As this was a 4-runner field, the 1pt place stake defaults to the win under standard rules. The total stake is therefore applied as 3pts Win @ 10/1 = 33.00 pts. (Note: If your specific bookmaker voids the place stake instead of rolling it over, your return here drops to 22.00 pts, with the 1pt place stake refunded).
  
  
• Papa Cocktail: The 2pt Win bet loses. 1pt Place @ 12/4 (3/1) = 4.00 pts.

Final Balance​

• Total Staked: 30.00 pts (87pts)
• Total Returned: 111.35 pts ( +182.48 pts)
• Net Outcome: +81.35 pts (+95.48 pts)

 

[AustinDillon75]

The main top rateds absolutely tanked yesterday, just 9 wins from 50 that ran (3 non runners) and a loss on the day of 17.20 pts to BSP. I know it seems an odd thing to say but all we are doing is regressing towards what is expected.

TOP RATEDS AFTER DAY 6
234 RUNS
79 WINS
33.8% STRIKE RATE
51.31 PTS TO BSP
21.9% RETURN ON INVESTMENT.

Will put up today's horses in a bit.

 

[AustinDillon75]

Today's ratings, and the Newmarket card. We are 80.1% correlated to the morning line market.