ADJUSTING SPEED FIGURE
- Thread starter twmills
- Start date
TheBluesBrother
Dam
You have a horse who ran over 1m5f on the AW at Lingfield and after adjustment to 9-0 he earns a speed figure of 90.
The lbs per length for 1m5f distance at Lingfield AW is 1.23.
3 weeks later your 90 rated horse has an entry in a 1m2f at Ascot.
The lbs per length for the 1m2f distance at Ascot is 1.59.
Subtract the lbs per length figures: 1.23-1.59 = -0.36 x 10f (Ascot) = -3.6lbs.
Subtract -3.6lbs from 90 = 86.4lbs (86).
He ends up with a speed figure of 86 as he is running over a distance of 3f less.
You could take it a step futher, in the Ascot race he is set to carry 9-8, do you take 8lbs of his adjusted speed figure of 86
so after the adjustment you now end up with a speed figure of 78.
Food for thought
The lbs per length for 1m5f distance at Lingfield AW is 1.23.
3 weeks later your 90 rated horse has an entry in a 1m2f at Ascot.
The lbs per length for the 1m2f distance at Ascot is 1.59.
Subtract the lbs per length figures: 1.23-1.59 = -0.36 x 10f (Ascot) = -3.6lbs.
Subtract -3.6lbs from 90 = 86.4lbs (86).
He ends up with a speed figure of 86 as he is running over a distance of 3f less.
You could take it a step futher, in the Ascot race he is set to carry 9-8, do you take 8lbs of his adjusted speed figure of 86
so after the adjustment you now end up with a speed figure of 78.
Food for thought
twmills
Colt
Thanks BB I will use this to see how it goes, Ark the figure of 90 was just made up to ask the question with. Although I am using the method from patterns in the sand, except I use the going allowance from racing post weekender. Yesterday tried for fisrst time and had Pether's Moon as my speed horse in the race, and even using BB's lbs per lth method it still came out Pether' s Moon, I have now added the lbs per lth.
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TheBluesBrother
Dam
I have the going allowances for every meeting which I work to here at http://tinyurl.com/lad34ps
Just select a day and view column "H" for the allowance.
If you want to view the raw speed figures prior to them being adjusted to 9-0 just unhide column "N".
Just select a day and view column "H" for the allowance.
If you want to view the raw speed figures prior to them being adjusted to 9-0 just unhide column "N".
twmills
Colt
Thanks BB, I have looked at your going allowances and compared some with the racing post weekender, and there is in some cases a big difference, are the racing post weekender allowances no good, today I backed Lujeanie who finished second, he was my speed horse in the race. Out of currisosity I changed the going allowance to yours, and my speed horse then became Valmina who finished fith, I know this was only a one off race and not really much of a test, but what I am trying to ask are the racing post weekender allowances wrong? This is only my second race using patterns in the sand method,and so far 1 winner yesterday, and 1 second. I now also use your lbs per length method to adjust for distance. I do not adjust for weight in doing so the final ratings seem way out.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Dave Edwards compiles the going allowances for the Weekender and some days he can be very liberal with his going allowances,
he is always saying that he is too busy due to the amount of meetings run, and sometimes you have to wait 3 days for him to catch up.
Last time I looked he hadn't bothered doing last weeks meetings at Down Royal due to the fact that it took a bit of thinking about, I spent
approx 45 minutes working out the allowance for the first day alone.
His main problem is that he has to use WFA allowance in his calculations resulting with going allowances that can be 0.15s/f out compared to mine.
Remember that any going allowance is only somebody's personnel assessment on how the conditions on any given day are speeding up the horses or slowing them down.
he is always saying that he is too busy due to the amount of meetings run, and sometimes you have to wait 3 days for him to catch up.
Last time I looked he hadn't bothered doing last weeks meetings at Down Royal due to the fact that it took a bit of thinking about, I spent
approx 45 minutes working out the allowance for the first day alone.
His main problem is that he has to use WFA allowance in his calculations resulting with going allowances that can be 0.15s/f out compared to mine.
Remember that any going allowance is only somebody's personnel assessment on how the conditions on any given day are speeding up the horses or slowing them down.
twmills
Colt
Rated the 3:35 Doncaster and I am going to have a SHREWD bet.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Working out the going allowance for Doncaster today 9/11/13, required a bit of thinking about.
If you are a person who only has one going allowance you will end up with 2yo debut winner Indy (slow by 6.49s)
having a speed figure higher that Listed race winner Jack Dexter (slow by 7.44s)
I sat looking at this meeting for about 30 mins and came to the conclusion that the first 3 races were run on soft going -0.55s/f
and the last 5 on heavy going -1.05s/f.
If you are a person who only has one going allowance you will end up with 2yo debut winner Indy (slow by 6.49s)
having a speed figure higher that Listed race winner Jack Dexter (slow by 7.44s)
I sat looking at this meeting for about 30 mins and came to the conclusion that the first 3 races were run on soft going -0.55s/f
and the last 5 on heavy going -1.05s/f.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Dave Edwards has given his assessment of the going at Doncaster and had the whole meeting at -0.80S/f (soft)
ending up with the 2yo débutante Indy with a speed figure of 85, 24lbs ahead of listed winner Jack Dexter on 61.
Like I said, going allowances are somebody's personnel assessment on the state of the ground.
Has Mr Edwards lost the plot, or is it simply a case of Indy being the next Pegasus
ending up with the 2yo débutante Indy with a speed figure of 85, 24lbs ahead of listed winner Jack Dexter on 61.
Like I said, going allowances are somebody's personnel assessment on the state of the ground.
Has Mr Edwards lost the plot, or is it simply a case of Indy being the next Pegasus
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Hi Chesham,
I know Dave Edwards uses the WFA allowance, and I don't, even if you took off the Racing Post's 2yo 6f WFA allowance for this time of year 14lbs,
Indy still ends up with a speed figure of 71.
The man has been compiling speed figures for 30+ years since the days of his mentor Ken Hussey, it is time he was put out to grass as his speed figures
for Doncaster weren't worth the effort, mind you that is only my opinion
It was interesting to see that Timeform had the difference between the two at 32lbs, and my figures said 33lbs.
I know Dave Edwards uses the WFA allowance, and I don't, even if you took off the Racing Post's 2yo 6f WFA allowance for this time of year 14lbs,
Indy still ends up with a speed figure of 71.
The man has been compiling speed figures for 30+ years since the days of his mentor Ken Hussey, it is time he was put out to grass as his speed figures
for Doncaster weren't worth the effort, mind you that is only my opinion
It was interesting to see that Timeform had the difference between the two at 32lbs, and my figures said 33lbs.
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Chesham
Sire
I wonder if Dave Edwards is actually producing the Top Speed Figures or if it is just a computer programme, GIGO. 30 Years ago it would have been a Pen & Ink job and more thought put into the figures. Years ago I used to have regular email contact with Lawrence Taylor who back then was just a chap producing his own speed figs and had published a booklet on the subject. I found that his faster than class rated did very well, but these days they don't seem to be as good as I remember from back then.
Good Luck
Chesham
Good Luck
Chesham