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About rating Greyhounds

@ davejb davejb Thank you Dave. My technical knowledge is way below yours, no programming skills and limited to Excel and maths knowledge. Will never match Early Days!!
The main reason I got distracted was messing around with Hong Kong and 2yo ratings and then a love for snooker that is the main interest.
I think that the ratings will tend to highlight short prices, the main part of the Greyhounds is finding out which will fail to get a run or likely to be involved in trouble, something that the ratings might not always tell us. I have been recording races for many months but not watched them and when I was young Greyhounds were my start in betting so I decided to give it another go. My main interest was in Graded races and working out a class of each race, it is incredible how consistent greyhounds are, to get a race that is maybe just hundredths of a second harder htan it's last race is often all that is needed to stop them winning.
If it goes well the use of sectional ratings may be the vital ingredient to help even more.
 
I used to go to Blackpool (flapping) track in the 70's, I did ratings based on 0.06 seconds per length (if I remember rightly) and the first three home in the fastest 3 or 4 races - from which I derived a going allowance for the night. Backing the three fastest in a forecast (first two reversed, first to beat third) I'd have 3 bets per race and usually did pretty well from it. I'd probably still be doing that these days if the track was still there.... I'd certainly have had a night at the dogs since we moved back here, given the chance.

I tested things out using Belle Vue a good while back, it seemed to me that the returns from a win made it much harder than it used to be - so I gave up on it. At Blackpool I used to note down the running order at each bend, along with odd squiggles to record the bumping, checking and what have you, so I ended up with quite a decent home produced form book - which didn't always help much as it was not unknown for dogs to appear under a different name, and to judge from a couple of runs I saw that came under the 'blatant' heading I don't think the vet... if there was one.... was that good at spotting dogs that were being assisted by the pharmaceutical companies. MOSTLY the racing was fair-ish, just now and again you'd spot something a bit dodgy, it added to the fun I think!

No harm in not being up on PCs, although it does make the job take longer - my ratings were all done via mental arithmetic on small file cards back then, I don't think calculators existed - I certainly didn't have one - one job every time I did the ratings was to sort my cards into alphabetical order once they'd been updated.... now Excel can do thousands in an eyeblink.
Dave
 
Well ran out of time again.

I have ratings but not happy about the formula which means that the Sprint ratings are too low and the Stayers are too high. But as it is the Derby starting tonight, I have attached the ratings I have for each dog and their form. They need a fair bit of work yet but they give an idea.

The heats give the last 5 ratings for each dog and the highlighted is the class of the race. The form gives all UK form for the dogs taking part, obviously lots of Irish runners with incomplete form.

Will update as event progresses.
 

Attachments

  • Derby.xlsx
    1.9 MB · Views: 12
I used to go to Blackpool (flapping) track in the 70's, I did ratings based on 0.06 seconds per length (if I remember rightly) and the first three home in the fastest 3 or 4 races - from which I derived a going allowance for the night. Backing the three fastest in a forecast (first two reversed, first to beat third) I'd have 3 bets per race and usually did pretty well from it. I'd probably still be doing that these days if the track was still there.... I'd certainly have had a night at the dogs since we moved back here, given the chance.
Click to expand...
Hi Dave, I should have replied a long time ago. Greyhounds were my first love gambling wise, the information is amazing nad light years ahead of horse racing. I started Flapping when I reached 18 and could drive. Hartlepool was the first place, now a Morrisons! Everyone there thought I was stupid as, like you say they would claim the dogs were stopped or drugged. But a similar method of calculating Going Allowances seemed to work very well. I also went to Wheatley Hill, burnt down a year or two back, until I started wandering the country. I lived in Sheffield and London a few years. I moved to London to spend my nights at the dogs. But after a year I had run out of funds after packing my job in. I didn't have the bank to make enough gambling and that leads to the inevitable worry of losing. Still, I had a great time.

I would attend Wembley every meeting, what a waste that new stadium is! Then on the other nights go around the Open Racing with a friend, be it Walthamstow, Wimbledon, Catford, Romford or for a short time Haringey. If i could get to Hackney, work permitting that was always excellent afternoon or morning fun.

Then after I quit London I moved back North and spent many years at Sunderland and occasionally Newcastle.

Then I got a new job and hadn't been much for years until I gave it up 3 years ago.

2019 I decided I would travel round all the remaining tracks in the country and in about 6 trips got round them all. Some early starts for overnight busses or trains to make those in the South. Since the pandemic 2 of those have closed and Shawfield in Glasgow has tyet to reopen. Now I still have Towcester to go to so that will be a future visit.

I mainly follow just Sunderland now and the Open Races is just an experiment to see if I can produce ratings. Those years in a proper job cost me all this fun as I started betting on Sports with Sky on in the house, but like many others as my visits around the country were nearly empty tracks. Only Monmore, Perry Barr and to a lesser extent Hove had an afternoon crowd, whilst Peterborough and Pelaw Grange were the fullest on the evening. Hopefully the 15 months imprisonment will spark some increase in crowds as people are desperate to get back out!
 
I have ratings but not happy about the formula which means that the Sprint ratings are too low and the Stayers are too high. But as it is the Derby starting tonight, I have attached the ratings I have for each dog and their form. They need a fair bit of work yet but they give an idea.
Click to expand...
I should have said the ratings are calculated as 8pts = 1 length,or in 1/100ths of a second - 1 point at 30 seconds. I adjusted the ratings for shorter times and longer times , but only using a linear method which I need to amend using perhaps an exponential curve. I used a set of Stahndard Times, that need looking at as well but they seem fairly close, just a percentile of all times at the distance or tweaked when evidence is limited.

I have not accounted for going changes throughout a meeting which could also affect ratings.

If 1 rating is much higher than others I would be wary, possibly just got the perfect break or trouble behind giving a clear run.
 
Attached last 10 runs for each dog in UK Open Races only and Heat by Heat summary. First and last of the Heats are the best quality.

Interesting for betting would be - Ballymac Ariel, Native Mestro, Warzone Tom, Little Emir, Knocknaboul Syd. Saturday: Hilight Arkle, Coney Wonderland, Bandicoot Sammy, Newinn Session, Toolmaker Sydney and Tenpin.

Though no odds yet and sure some of those short!
 

Attachments

  • GD2.xlsx
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Third Round attached for Saturday evening. All form in UK Open races in Trap order.

Some big improvements from a few Irish runners, especially those trained by L Dowling. Sure to see more improve this round as it hots up.

I am confused by the Trap 1 draw at Towcester, they seemed so slow at breaking on Friday and struggled to get going as if it was slow, then on Saturday they ran much better. As if they had been messing around with the conditions. Worrying for betting.

If Trap 1 could be trusted there would be a few interesting but they are not showing their normal sectionals after missing the break.

Heat 1 - Signet Ace nearly always starts electric which will make it tough for those outside but it will need to be foot perfect to hold on this time. Kilara Lion with a better break would be interesting to catch the leader.
Heat 2 - Ballymac Fairone ran a cracker last time. Toolmaker Sydney would have to clear trouble or make an electric start to beat it.
Heat 3 - A weak heat, Ballymac Wild in 2 with a repeat of the weekend will be hard to beat, but surely Tenpin will not get a better chance though doesn't seem to have the start now .
Heat 4 - Native Maestro is the big test for Trap 1 and will be hard to beat, though Beach Avenue in 6 will surely do better than so far and could be interesting at a better price.
Heat 5 - Roxholme Sheikh is consistently good, just getting the better of Thorn Falcon in 6.
Heat 6 - The weakest heat, Jaguar Macie will not get a better chance with Cold As Ice picking up on trouble.
Heat 7 - Bandicoot Sammy broke well last but needs a repeat to hold off De Machine and Faughan Rebel a strong finisher who is preferred.
Heat 8 - A cracking heat with Deerjey Sydney and track record holder Bockos Belly sure to go close and likely to catch Hilight Arkle close home.
 

Attachments

  • Derby Round 3.xlsx
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The Quarter Finals of the Derby on Saturday as the pace hots up. Summary of the 4 heats and the form of the runners up to the last 10 UK Open races included. Still guessing a bit with the Irish runners but they look very strong.

Heat 1 - Reigning champion Deerjet Sydney has the plum Trap 3 draw but as a rail scraper could find trouble getting to the rails if the inside 2 trap as usual. Forest Gold in 1 has excelled so far but the slow starting from Trap 1 may make this a little tough. At the prices Toolmaker Sydney looks a big price
Heat 2 - Only the 5 runners and a return to starting from Bockos Belly will make it hard to beat, but clearing kennelmate Aussie Captain who is improving is no certainty. Unlock Unlock is perhaps the value with a nice run on the outside and should clear bother.
Heat 3 - Perhaps the weakest heat. All About ted showed improvement last time and must have a great chance here. Thorn Falcon a strong runner on his outside would be dangerous and now Kilara Lion moves away from the 1 box may get a better start but could be plenty bother on the inside and 5 and 6 look favoured.
Heat 4 - Signet Ace started slower last week but ran on well. The worry is the Trap 1 box again. Knocknaboul Syd is the one to pick up the pieces with the consistent Adeles Duke dangerous as trouble looms on the inside.
 

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  • QF.xlsx
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Semi Finals on Saturday night. Been excellent as ever and Ireland dominate with 8 of the 12 left. A little spoilt by the problems trapping from the 1 and 6 box. My thoughts:

Semi 1: Unbeaten Deerjet Sydney returns to Trap 1 but is so tight to the rails should be no bother. Rated 284 in last years Derby and only a length behind that this year. The dangers appear to be Toolmaker Sydney on 3 and Ballymac Fairone in 4 who are likely to lead up, especially Fairone who ran well after being in the dreaded 1 last time. The other 3 have yet to show the early pace to challenge and would need trouble to win. The 3 and 4 are excellent value at 8/1 and 5/1 here.

Semi 2: Trap 4 Knocknaboul Syd has started impressively last 2 and has an excellent chance again here. Thorn Falcon on the outside should get a clear run. Gaytime Milo looks unlikely to get the lead it had on Saturday and the inside could well be carnage. Newinn Session has a few lengths to find on the main 2 and would need trouble ahead. The problem are the 2 Jansson dogs. Kilara Lion looks below very best but has the best trap to get out, but sure to head for the rails and will need a super quick trap to avoid Bockos Belly. Janssons is unlucky to have 3 in the race. With Syd odds on the value would be on the 2 or 3 getting away without bother. 13/2 Belly and 25/1 Lion are generous. Or even 9/2 Falcon who has only lost once.

A great night in store. Form attached for all UK Open races for each runner.
 

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  • SF.xlsx
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Last edited:
The Hare The Hare
Just caught up on this thread - I'm up unusually early for me, thanks to a whining dog! No chance of making any existing track these days for me, but we still get to Haydock and occasionally elsewhere for the horses... or will do once we're happy with the great unlocking. As with speed rating horses the only real problem is that it's relentless, if you are really too ill or otherwise engaged one day then you end up having to clear the backlog when you are able, which can make it a bit too much like a job! Keep up the good work,
Dave
 
@
The Hare
The Hare
Just caught up on this thread - I'm up unusually early for me, thanks to a whining dog! No chance of making any existing track these days for me, but we still get to Haydock and occasionally elsewhere for the horses... or will do once we're happy with the great unlocking. As with speed rating horses the only real problem is that it's relentless, if you are really too ill or otherwise engaged one day then you end up having to clear the backlog when you are able, which can make it a bit too much like a job! Keep up the good work,
Dave
Click to expand...
Just rating the Derby at the moment Dave, still need to get alignment between Sprints and Stayers. Not much racing now in the North West sadly. Reopening lots around London but really it is only betting shop material except weekend nights. Tracks have too much racing so for anyone to follow just one track takes a lot of time and then bookmakers are all off course at the moment and even if Normality returns only then taking bets on an evening. I went to Kinsley a couple of years ago and the bookie refused my £5 bet at an afternoon meeting, saying he was just there for show and to use one of the others!!
 
A little late for this week - Derby Final and a cracking card tonight at Towcester. Attached my ratings for Final and a few of the other races. Still need amending, sprints a little low and Stayers a little high.

As for the Derby itself, it looks likely the one in front at first bend will win. Problem is what will it be!

reigning champion Deerjet Sydney will need a fast trap to avoid Newinn Session in 1. Ballymac Fairone started brilliantly last week as usual from the middle and is the most likely leader. Kilara Lion flew out of the traps but couldn't show the early to match these. Balymac Wild drawn a little wide and could cause trouble inside. The only one I could consider backing is Thorn Falcon in 6 as everything inside is likely to go inwards and a run on the outside and even a possible early lead are not out of the question.

Otherwise Queen Beyonce, Knocknaboul Syd, Angry Dad, Angry Tornado, Savana Volcano would be the selections.

Great night ahead.
 

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  • Derby Final.xlsx
    155.7 KB · Views: 4
davejb said:
I used to go to Blackpool (flapping) track in the 70's, I did ratings based on 0.06 seconds per length (if I remember rightly) and the first three home in the fastest 3 or 4 races - from which I derived a going allowance for the night. Backing the three fastest in a forecast (first two reversed, first to beat third) I'd have 3 bets per race and usually did pretty well from it. I'd probably still be doing that these days if the track was still there.... I'd certainly have had a night at the dogs since we moved back here, given the chance.

I tested things out using Belle Vue a good while back, it seemed to me that the returns from a win made it much harder than it used to be - so I gave up on it. At Blackpool I used to note down the running order at each bend, along with odd squiggles to record the bumping, checking and what have you, so I ended up with quite a decent home produced form book - which didn't always help much as it was not unknown for dogs to appear under a different name, and to judge from a couple of runs I saw that came under the 'blatant' heading I don't think the vet... if there was one.... was that good at spotting dogs that were being assisted by the pharmaceutical companies. MOSTLY the racing was fair-ish, just now and again you'd spot something a bit dodgy, it added to the fun I think!

No harm in not being up on PCs, although it does make the job take longer - my ratings were all done via mental arithmetic on small file cards back then, I don't think calculators existed - I certainly didn't have one - one job every time I did the ratings was to sort my cards into alphabetical order once they'd been updated.... now Excel can do thousands in an eyeblink.
Dave
Click to expand...
Dave, when the going is slow 0,06 per length isn't the same as fast going can be slow by as much as half a length between the two. I have been working on 4 years of data at Each Track in the UK. I have been calculating standard times. Be interested in sharing some ideas with you .Tony
 
HI T tony spencer
I doubt my ideas would be worth very much, apart from a brief go at Belle Vue a couple of years back (when I found that the odds made the game too difficult) I've not seriously looked at greyhound racing for nearly 50 years!

As I said, I did have a quick go, figuring that if I did it on the computer (in the 1970's it was on file cards, all calculated in my head) it would be quicker and easier... had I found a glimmer of a decent chance there I'd have persevered but even on days where I picked several winning forecasts I'd still see that I was would have been lucky to break even, the payouts just didn't seem worth putting in all the time needed to do a better job. It certainly wasn't an attractive prospect when I'd have added it to all the work I do on the horses.... it's all meant to be a hobby in retirement!

I read a book or two about training the dogs, and I think I found one about handicapping them as well (can't be sure, hazy memory) - I had the advantage of working at a company that supplied books to libraries so I got to see all sorts of books about the dogs and horses back then - and I think I got the 0.06s/length from there, I doubt I'd have had a clue how to work out a seconds/length value back then.
Dave
 
Thanks Dave I'm currently working on Graded races at most tracks building a Neural Network. I'm interested in peoples thoughts about calculating going allowance
 
I did a very simple calculation, as I remember. I calculated times for the first three home in each of 4 (I think it was) races from the night, again memory is hazy but there were sprints over about 200 yds, longer races over 550 or so, and the majority were 460 or so - I used only the 460 yd race times, and ignored any unusual events (like when they staged their version of graded races). Add all the times together, find the average, done.
For sprints and 'long distance' events I can't recall what, if anything, I did - I suspect I ignored them as they were not very frequent.... and there was one rule I never ignored, bet on Black Nose if he's in trap 1 or 2., that dog made mincemeat of anything wider.

Dave
 
@ T tony spencer and @ davejb davejb

Hello both. I think the thing is Greyhound Racing is light years ahead of the horse racing industry in the Uk and Ireland.

Effectively the first thing it is it actually realised that in 1971 the UK adopted decimilisation. Something that makes counting and number calculations so much easier. Yet here we are 50 years later in horse racing still thinking we can use an ancient system that is so much harder to use. Whether this is just due to tradition or a sense of mysticism amongst old people running a sport it is hard to say. Or maybe just trying to stay in loyalty with the US.

Anyway for some time the greyhound races in the UK have the actual completion times for each greyhound, read from a photo finish print. Unlike horse racing they actually are happy to provide this information to those interested. The distances are then calculated from these times at 0.08 seconds per length at all distances. There will be the odd hundredth of a second difference as distances are only given in quarters. A short head is 0.01 second, head 0.02 and neck 0.03 of a second usually. As i say the distances are just calculated from the times. Now in the big brother world of horse racing we have the fantastic idea to convert time into seconds using a random formula at the discretion of a clerk of the course. Then instead of giving the time, horse racing fans are apparently not interested in accuracy and we are fed a distance that is contrived from the time without information as to how they calculated the conversion, resulting in quite large differences on some distances. Check the BHA which gives the times to see this difference.

So on any going and distance 0.08 seconds per length or metre in handicap starts is the calculation. Obviously using horse racing this can create differences in very slow going but this is no problem as the actual information is the finishing time. The only issue is handicap racing as you then need to adjust for the start the greyhounds received, racecards use the 0.08 again as before but this is art rather than science though an excellent attempt at it.

The most important thing you need for greyhound racing is not necessarily the finish time. Especially in graded races where there is little difference, the important thing is finding which dogs will avoid trouble and especially which will lead. The sectionals and bend positions are very useful for this.

I am still working on calculating my ratings though hope to come up with a formula to allow for the different race distances soon. Any help would be great Tone.

Kevin
 
BHA website times are derived from the distances between runners, and are based on a winning time that is supplied by AP, via the Racing Post, and is quite often plain wrong. In the event that a time is clearly incorrect, when this information is supplied to the BHA, their invariable response is to suggest that you contact the Racing Post, persuade them to change the time. For rail movement errors they will tell you to contact the clerk of the course and persuade them to change it - even, I might add, for the rare occasions when the course has actually supplied the correct data and it's simply been copied to the BHA site incorrectly.

Distances between horses in lengths are converted to times, which then go onto the results. If you directly ask the BHA 'are your times for runners other than the winner timed directly or are they converted from other data' you get told they time them directly, and then proceed (if you are fortunate enough to get a correspondent who wants to expand on the matter) to tell you this is based on finishing distances.... so that 'yes' will be a 'no' then!

The BHA either have no idea why they should furnish accurate data, or simply aren't bothered. Racing Post, who basically send thee race results and timing data to BHA via Wetherbys, actually buy that data in from AP and have no control over it's accuracy or the diligence of those recording the data. When told that a race time is wrong they will look into it and change the data if they agree, and they will do this fairly quickly (once they've had a few accurate corrections from the same email address - they were bloody slow for a while at first). I've stopped telling them when they have an error because I take the view that they should be checking this themselves, not just blindly publishing crap, but they're too busy being journalists - to be fair I suppose it is a bit much to expect racing journalists to be any more bound by reality than the rest of the breed.

If you want accurate data, you have to figure out a way to get it - thanks to Mike ( TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother ) who asked me to write a program to check race times a few years back a fairly reasonable method to do this resulted... compare Timeform's value for a race time against the RP/AP value, when they differ go watch the race on video and time it yourself. This, unless you have better reactions than I do (not hard) means you get maybe within a second of the right time, although sometimes the camera work can make this a bit harder than you'd like. Timeform report the same rubbish as RP initially, but they update race time data fairly quickly - by lunchtime the day after they usually have a corrected version which - I was told - resulted from their staff going over the videos and timing the races themselves. You do, of course, end up having to decide which of three times (TF, RP/AP, your own) to settle on at the end.

There is no appetite, I would suggest, at the BHA for ensuring accurate data - if I had to guess I'd say they'd be mystified by why anyone would want it.

Greyhound timings - that's really good, my only objections to following the dogs are down to (a) I find horses more interesting, (b) Dog racing is probably going the way of the dodo, barring some miracle resurgence popping up, (c) The returns seem a bit tight even when you get it right!

Dave
 
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