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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
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5 Day Returners

TonCon

Filly
Hi all,

Going to resurrect a simple Flat system from the old Punter Profits site which has in the past generated a reasonable long term profit of about 16% ROI with a strike rate slightly in excess of 21%.

The rules/justification are as follows :-

1. UK and Ireland Flat TURF races only - no AW

2. Must be returning to the track within 5 days of it's last run

3. Last run must have been on turf, not the AW

4. The horse must have finished in the first six places on both of it's last two starts


The reasoning behind the system takes into account that a 5 day turnaround would seem a reasonable indicator of the horse's fitness and wellbeing plus being trained to peak at that time.

AW form doesn't always transfer well to turf.

By at least finishing 6th in it's last two races it shows that those runs were at least semi-credible.

Been a long time since I followed this so the figures above may not hold up this time. We shall see.

Sorry, forgot to say that all returns will be at BSP. Start tomorrow.
 
Last edited:

runnerjp

Colt
Hi T TonCon ,

Good luck with these ... I ran the stats for them and it does look promising!

Bit of a slow start this year thought :)

1620832638019.png
 

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TonCon

Filly
Yeah, good point, I think that it was supposed to run from June to Sept. but I couldn't remember.

Might be wise to leave it until 1st June to start ?
 

TonCon

Filly
Had a look and does not seem to make a difference

View attachment 100335

Looks solid enough bit did go through a big losing run!
View attachment 100337you could take out horses the won LTO as i think maybe the market "expects" that to happen hence the RIO and low A/W and CHI
Good spot - I think thats an excellent idea.
Is it possible to run the numbers using the 2nd to 6th LTO to see what the LLR would then be ?

Also, I seem to remember that the Irish results weren't great and I was considering droping them.
 

TonCon

Filly
Going by the superb info. provided by runnerjp I make it two qualifiers today -

18.40 New'm. - Mukha Magic

19.50 New'm. - Basilicata
 

TonCon

Filly
Thank you newcomer. I've had an email from an old mate who was involved in the original system set-up. He tells me that while the original was mostly profitable there were several updates which reduced the number of bets and upped the profit.

He reckons that by restricting bets to 12/1 (or 10/1 - he couldn't remember which) and under, ignoring all Irish racing and sticking to H/C's the profit went up, number of bets went down and the LLR's were 'managable'.

Unfortunately, this is all anecdotal as he's not got access to his records anymore.

Is there any way, and if you wouldn't mind, of checking using the following criteria :-

Days 1-5
Form 2-6 (last two runs under 6th, last run must be on turf)
SP/BSP under 12/1
No Irish or AW
Both H/C and non-H/C races

Appreciate that it's a lot of work and will understand if don't care to.

Many thanks.
 

newcomer

Filly
Interestingly, go solely OVER 12/1... and it's an excellent return! But clearly very, very volatile and I'd not be wanting that strike rate. But it looks like there are some big winners to be found in horses that only previously ran in the last few days.
Screenshot_20210513-223156.png
 

TonCon

Filly
After giving it some thought I'm going to go with the original rules but amended as below -

1. Drop all qualifiers who won LTO
2. Ignore all Irish races

This means there is no restrictiion on price, race conditions etc.

Today there's one.

19.45 Hamilton - Captain Jameson
 

TonCon

Filly
After giving it some thought I'm going to go with the original rules but amended as below -

1. Drop all qualifiers who won LTO
2. Ignore all Irish races

This means there is no restrictiion on price, race conditions etc.

Today there's one.

19.45 Hamilton - Captain Jameson...L 5.9
 
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