2026 Cheltenham Gold Cup

[quiet gambler]

It seems a trappy race.

On formlines, I have made some ratings.

Banbridge run 137 1/2 taking the 2024 King George. If I use him as a line, it says Gaelic Warrior run 137 1/2 in 2025 King George. I must say I won a lot when Gaelic Warrior won the Aintree Bowl. I'm a supporter. Not backed Gaelic Warrior since. At 3/1, seems very short. Also The Jukebox Man 137 1/2 is just as capable, on King George running.

Jango Baie 137, half a length behind, in King George.

It seems a close finish if they take to course. Gaelic Warrior won the 2024 Arkle so should be alright.

But Envoi Allen jumps out at me. Envoi Allen run 137 at Down Royal last run, according to a line involving Affordable Fury 133 1/4 and I am Maximus 130 3/4.

Envoi Allen runs about this rating a lot. Here are ratings I have from my 3 mile chase evaluations thread.

Envoi Allen 139 3/4 Down Royal (NI) 02 Nov 2024 Ladbrokes Champion Chase Grade 1 3m Good to Yielding
Envoi Allen 136 1/4 Down Royal (NI) 11 Nov 2023 Ladbrokes Champion Chase Grade 1 3m Soft (Yielding to Soft in places)
Envoi Allen 138 3/4 Cheltenham 16 Mar 2023 Ryanair Chase Registered As The Festival Trophy Grade 1 2m 4f 127y Soft (Good to Soft in places)
Envoi Allen 139 3/4 Down Royal (NI) 05 Nov 2022 Ladbrokes Champion Chase Grade 1 3m Yielding (Yielding to Soft in places)
Envoi Allen 139 3/4 Punchestown (IRE) 05 Dec 2021 John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase Grade 1 2m 4f 100y Yielding to Soft

Also Envoi Allen has run well at Cheltenham behind Energumene, in the 2022 Queen Mother Champion Chase. Even though Envoi Allen is 12 years old, he just as capable, this being so at Down Royal, his last run.

I think 25/1 is very big, as this is a trappy race and Envoi Allen has a massive chance.

 

[quiet gambler]

I have put £20 WIN on Gaelic Warrior at 100/30. I have £15 E/W on Envoi Allen at 22/1. It should have been £20 E/W Envoi Allen but it was cut on Betfair from 25/1 to 22/1. I missed the price so got the hump and cut my stake!

 

[quiet gambler]

Thanks for the likes boys.

 

[markfinn]

3 wins bets and Grey Dawning also to place

 

[quiet gambler]

So Gaelic Warrior won, £20 at 100/30. Won £66.67. So happy for Gaelic Warrior and wish I would have put a bit more on. Had to back him after he won me so much money, in the 2025 Aintree Bowl. Thanks Gaelic Warrior. Love you.

Envoi Allen being a 12 year old couldn't cope with quick pace of the Gold Cup and run bad in the 2025 Ryanair also. This could be because of age. Envoi Allen at this age can just cope with a slow pace I think. Envoi Allen still retains ability but runs it, at a slow pace. Runs before when younger including a 2023 Ryanair Chase win, a 2022 3rd in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, and also run fair, in the 2024 Ryanair Chase.

 

[quiet gambler]

Evaluation of 2026 Cheltenham Gold Cup​

16:00 Cheltenham 13 Mar 2026 Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1 5YO plus 10 ran 3m 2f 70y Good to Soft (Soft in places)​

1 Gaelic Warrior (GER) 8 11-10 t h 151 1/4
2 8 Jango Baie (FR) 7 11-10 143 1/4
3 2 Inothewayurthinkin (IRE) 8 11-10 t p1 141 1/4
4 6½ Grey Dawning (IRE) 9 11-10 134 3/4
5 9 L'homme Presse (FR) 11 11-10 125 3/4
6 ¾ Firefox (IRE) 8 11-10 t 125
7 1¼ Gold Tweet (FR) 9 11-10 t 123 3/4
8 3¾ The Jukebox Man (IRE) 8 11-10 120

I take great pleasure is evaluating this race. I have took my rating of L'homme Presse 125 3/4 from the Spillane's Tower thread, to evaluate this race. I found on my Galopin Des Champs thread, Inothewayurthinkin run 141 1/4, when 4th to Galopin Des Champs, in the 2025 Irish Gold Cup. That tells me that if L'homme Presse met Inothewayurthinkin, Inothewayurthinkin would be 15 and a half lengths in front of L'homme Presse. IN THIS 2026 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP, THIS HAPPENED WHEN INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN IN THIRD, FINISHED 15 AND A HALF LENGTHS IN FRONT OF L'HOMME PRESSE. WHAT AN AMAZING FORMLINE! BANG ON!

So now lets evaluate this race, from that.

Gaelic Warrior has ran an amazing race to run 151 1/4. I haven't seen this kind of rating, since his 2 mile chase days. The 2 mile chasers I find have higher ratings than 3 mile chasers. I was hoping Gaelic Warrior was running in the Aintree Bowl so I can back him again. I think Gaelic Warrior might run at Punchestown this time. AFTER A RATING LIKE THAT, HE IS A CERTAINTY! Gaelic Warrior's 151 1/4 rating is higher than my Galopin Des Champs rating 148 1/2.

Jango Baie 143 1/4 has run to form and just met an amazing horse Gaelic Warrior, that was much better than Kempton. I think Jango Baie is running next, in the Aintree Bowl. Inothewayurthinkin has run 141 1/4 like when 4th to Galopin Des Champs, in 2025 Irish Gold Cup and 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup. Think he is running at Punchestown next. Grey Dawning 134 3/4 which seems correct. Grey Dawning has run this before. L'homme Presse has run to form 125 3/4. I'm sure the Grand National is next for him. Firefox has run 125 and again, Grand National for him. Gold Tweet has run well 123 3/4. Might run in the Aintree Bowl. The Jukebox Man 120 just emptied. Could it have been the course or the ground? The Jukebox Man took the King George on good ground (good to soft in places).

 

[AustinDillon75]

Sadly, its been reported post race that Envoi Allen has died.

Legend of a horse, and it sounds a ridiculous comment for a 10 time Grade 1 winner, but I thought he might do even better than he did.

Thanks for those posts quiet gambler , I like reading different people's approaches to studying the form.

 

[quiet gambler]

Thanks for your like and your remark. Very sad about Envoi Allen. Sure he would have been retired soon and this is a horrible thing for him to leave this world and not enjoy being retired. This is the side of horse racing we all hate. It has upset me. I put money on Envoi Allen and that is so cruel. RIP.

 

[quiet gambler]

I think I have a key to Gaelic Warrior running 151 1/4. He is better on a galloping track rather than a tight track. I hope then he runs next at Punchestown. He won the Bowl at Aintree last year, in spite of him running on a track I think is too tight for him. Gaelic Warrior ran 137 3/4, in the Bowl at Aintree. It was his first attempt at 3 miles 1 furlong, over fences. I was surprised that he won by just 3 lengths and not further, this is from reading his form. I thought that this could be because of tight track.

Gaelic Warrior finished 3rd in 2025 King George and having Banbridge as a line, Gaelic Warrior ran 137 1/2. So those ratings are alike.

Gaelic Warrior also was beat 5 lengths by Fact To File, in the Irish Gold Cup. I have Fact To File 143 3/4, so if Gaelic Warrior has run that 137 3/4 again, then Fact To File has run 142 3/4, in the Irish Gold Cup. That is one length below form, for Fact To File.

It seems Gaelic Warrior has run the same sort of races. Now he has run 151 1/4, in the 2026 Cheltenham Gold Cup. I think those other tracks were too sharp for him. So Gaelic Warrior is 13 and a half lengths better, at Cheltenham.

I'm hoping he races next, at Punchestown.

Gaelic Warrior has beat Fact To File, just a neck, at Punchestown. Gaelic Warrior run 144, in that race beating Fact To File 143 3/4. It could be because the ground was very heavy, that Gaelic Warrior never won further. I believe Gaelic Warrior is going to run that 151 1/4 in the Punchestown Gold Cup, as it is also a galloping track.