pawras
Stallion
It's Scottish Grand National day and I saw an article in the RP and given the number of people who work at the RP and the resources they have I felt it a bit weak and superficial.
www.racingpost.com/news/britain/who-will-win-the-2026-scottish-grand-national-based-on-previous-trends-aGB3h3q1y2Ax/
It starts off well enough talking about weight carried by winners and that only three had carried more than 11st3lb in the last 20 odd years.
Which is true enough but it misses out that there’s been a few at 11st+, and with a bit more research would have shown that :
• Only 3 winners who were carrying less than 10st, Joes Edge in 2005, Hot Weld in 2007 and Iris De Balme.
• Only two winners in the last 25 years were carrying more weight than LTO. Vicente in 2017 and Mighty Thunder 2021.
• And adding Captain Cody in 2025 makes it only 3 winners in the last 25 years to be carrying more weight than at their last win.
An interesting point to note would have been to say how the Scottish Grand National winners haven’t increased in quality over the years in the same way the Aintree Grand National has. I.e. only once in the last 25 years has Scottish Grand National winner had an official rating over 146, whereas since the fences were changed in 2013 only two winners of the Aintree Grand National have had an official rating of less than 146
Talks about novices, could have mentioned that historically the Cheltenham Broadway Novice Chase Stakes 3m 1f Grade 1 in March has been the best trial/prep/pointer novice race with a 5/13 (38.5%) strike for places in the Scottish Grand National but no winners so maybe they’re being handicapped out from a win, so it’s unfortunate that none of the runners this year have come from that race.
But King Of Answers running on Saturday was 2nd in the novices Cheltenham National Hunt Challenge Cup Chase Stakes 3m 5f 201y in March, and runners coming from that race have a 10/40 (25%) each way strike in the Scottish Grand National.
However, could have pointed out that possibly more interesting is that Katate Dori running on Saturday ran in the Newbury Coral (Hennessy) Gold Cup Chase Handicap 3m 1f 214y Grade3 in November and runners going from that race to the following Scottish Grand National have a 12/33 (33.3%) each way strike. Plus, Katate Dori ran in the Kempton Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Handicap 3m Grade3 in Feb and runners going from that race to the following Scottish Grand National have a 7/20 (35.3%) each way strike.
When the article talks about recent form it could have easily taken it much further such as providing the formline of all the winners over the last x years. Also could have stated that 7 out of the last 7 winners placed in the last race they completed and 5 of those had won. Also it’s nice to see winners wins and places ever strike.
With that pic of Mullins could have mentioned how Mullins has won it the last twice after never winning previously this century, so has that been the start of him targeting it more?
Should have put a table in there with info for people to see and chew over in their minds for themselves as shown in the subset of mine I’ve shown below.
www.racingpost.com/news/britain/who-will-win-the-2026-scottish-grand-national-based-on-previous-trends-aGB3h3q1y2Ax/
It starts off well enough talking about weight carried by winners and that only three had carried more than 11st3lb in the last 20 odd years.
Which is true enough but it misses out that there’s been a few at 11st+, and with a bit more research would have shown that :
• Only 3 winners who were carrying less than 10st, Joes Edge in 2005, Hot Weld in 2007 and Iris De Balme.
• Only two winners in the last 25 years were carrying more weight than LTO. Vicente in 2017 and Mighty Thunder 2021.
• And adding Captain Cody in 2025 makes it only 3 winners in the last 25 years to be carrying more weight than at their last win.
An interesting point to note would have been to say how the Scottish Grand National winners haven’t increased in quality over the years in the same way the Aintree Grand National has. I.e. only once in the last 25 years has Scottish Grand National winner had an official rating over 146, whereas since the fences were changed in 2013 only two winners of the Aintree Grand National have had an official rating of less than 146
Talks about novices, could have mentioned that historically the Cheltenham Broadway Novice Chase Stakes 3m 1f Grade 1 in March has been the best trial/prep/pointer novice race with a 5/13 (38.5%) strike for places in the Scottish Grand National but no winners so maybe they’re being handicapped out from a win, so it’s unfortunate that none of the runners this year have come from that race.
But King Of Answers running on Saturday was 2nd in the novices Cheltenham National Hunt Challenge Cup Chase Stakes 3m 5f 201y in March, and runners coming from that race have a 10/40 (25%) each way strike in the Scottish Grand National.
However, could have pointed out that possibly more interesting is that Katate Dori running on Saturday ran in the Newbury Coral (Hennessy) Gold Cup Chase Handicap 3m 1f 214y Grade3 in November and runners going from that race to the following Scottish Grand National have a 12/33 (33.3%) each way strike. Plus, Katate Dori ran in the Kempton Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Handicap 3m Grade3 in Feb and runners going from that race to the following Scottish Grand National have a 7/20 (35.3%) each way strike.
When the article talks about recent form it could have easily taken it much further such as providing the formline of all the winners over the last x years. Also could have stated that 7 out of the last 7 winners placed in the last race they completed and 5 of those had won. Also it’s nice to see winners wins and places ever strike.
With that pic of Mullins could have mentioned how Mullins has won it the last twice after never winning previously this century, so has that been the start of him targeting it more?
Should have put a table in there with info for people to see and chew over in their minds for themselves as shown in the subset of mine I’ve shown below.
