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2022/23 AW

20:00 Wol - Lockdown Lass 0.5pt @ 11.5

Hooflepuff won easily enough last time and is still on a low mark. However, this step back in trip doesn't look in his favour, though no doubt Jason Hart will have him reasonably well positioned.

Lockdown Lass comes from a NH stable; her trainer Hanmer, has had 20 runners on the AW without success so far, but most of those runners didn't show much for their previous trainers anyway. Her AW form for Hanmer this autumn has been good. She's run twice over 7f here with an 8.5f run sandwiched in between. I don't think she's been seen at her best over 7f and when she ran over 8.5f, they went very quick in the middle part of the race and she was outpaced as she was up against 70 rated horses; she was 5th off 51 and the 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th were all rated 70 or higher. Tonight's race has an AVG OR of just 54 compared to 66 for her previous C&D run, so her chance here looks obvious, albeit the opposition is quite strong for the grade.
 
16:55 Wol - Hooflepuff backed at 4/1 last night - 10p R4 leaves me with 3.6

Hoping I've learnt my lesson from:

PHS said:
20:00 Wol - Lockdown Lass 0.5pt @ 11.5

Hooflepuff won easily enough last time and is still on a low mark. However, this step back in trip doesn't look in his favour, though no doubt Jason Hart will have him reasonably well positioned.
Click to expand...

He won pretty easily that day with a surging run from 2f out (11.59 sec penultimate furlong) off what was already a strong pace. Beyond Richard RHB hanging on to make all, I didn't see too many dangers despite this being a tougher race for Hoofle on ratings. Carey Street is a big price if you ignore his last run and he's won better races than this but the lack of recent jockeys like Hollie or Probert tempers enthusiasm.
 
18:20 Wol - Inexplicable 1pt @ 4/1

I think Inexplicable has a decent chance tomorrow. He's won 4 times over this C&D but never over the 9.5f with descriptions of;

18/10/21 kept on same pace
07/02/22 lead over 1f out, headed inside the final furlong
31/10/22 went a modest 3rd in the final furlong (btn 11L)
11/11/22 ridden to lead over 1f out , headed inside the final furlong, weakened final 100yds

He's no shoe in but 4/1 looks fair and apprentice Mark Winn has won on him over C&D and takes 5lb off. When he won here on 3rd Oct, you can see he's travelling conspicuosly well 2f out, won by 2L and runs off a 1lb lower mark if you take off Winn's claim. Just hope Foy doesn't have some magic up his sleeve with the no form switcher Waltzing Intime.
 
I done Visibility (17:30 Wol) 20/1 EW Extra last night (4 places in a 9 runner race)

He may look outclassed in this race but actually has a 50% strike rate (4-8) when carrying 4-10lb lower than the race average in AW Handicaps. Slightly unlucky not to finish in the places last time when a bit short of room in the final furlong. Carries joint bottom weight here when including the 5lb appr claim.
 
Best of British P PHS , i looked at Visibility for my maybe summat in it thread , but decided against it , hope it wins for yer though :handgestures-thumbup:
 
PHS said:
I done Visibility (17:30 Wol) 20/1 EW Extra last night (4 places in a 9 runner race)

He may look outclassed in this race but actually has a 50% strike rate (4-8) when carrying 4-10lb lower than the race average in AW Handicaps. Slightly unlucky not to finish in the places last time when a bit short of room in the final furlong. Carries joint bottom weight here when including the 5lb appr claim.
Click to expand...
You could easily argue that Visibility faced a few of these last time and could only manage 5th. Why should today be any different; pace.

I'm hoping that Golden Sands will take them along at a good pace which the selection prefers. LTO the middle of the race was very slowly run in comparison to when he won two runs back when the pace was more even throughout.
 

NON-RUNNER​

31 minutes agoDec 30 - 13:35:43
ROYAL BLUE, PINK chevrons, ROYAL BLUE cap.

7 8

Visibility (IRE)​


Reason:
Vets Cert (Abscess)
 
PHS said:
Just noted the first six words for the winner of Visibility's race, tracked leader in steadily run race, so I reckon the non runner saved me money!
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I got the above description from the ATR result. On watching the race and looking at speed figures, I wouldn't say it was as steadily run as they say, more like pretty even TBH. No such comment in the more reliable RP result comments.
 
PHS said:
08/01/23
13:00 Sou - 8f Cl5 Hcp

3/4pt Cloch Nua 21 BF
1/4pt Taravara 9/2
Click to expand...
In this race we have two that finished 2nd behind the 3-time winner Zealot and one that was 2nd to another 3-time winner Dream Harder.
At the top of the handicap, Archie Watson's Chief's Will (OR76) was beaten 2.75L by Zealot (OR64). At the bottom, Daafy (OR60) was beaten nk by Zealot (OR73). Zealot is now rated 77 having started his run off 59.

Towards the bottom of the handicap, Cloch Nua (OR67) was beaten 2.75L by Dream Harder (OR64) at the start of that one's winning run. Dream Harder is now rated 81.

We can see that Chief's Will and Cloch Nua both faced impossible tasks against unexposed horses (both beaten by 2.75L).

Chief's Will's mark is unchanged on 76 as is Cloch Nua's on 67. Daafy is up 2lb to 62. Despite those defeats, it's quite possible both are still well enough handicapped to win this race given how far ahead of their marks the winners were.

On class of races contested, Daafy would appear to be out of it but he's been campaigned mostly at 7f and I believe he's better at a mile. The mile race he won here off 52 (16/01/22) has worked out very well; 2nd-Love Your Work 60>77, 4th-Lenny's Spirit 59>71, 5th-Masqool 58>72.

Taravara only won narrowly over C&D last time, but is only up 1lb to 74 and I got the impression Probert managed to subtly save a bit at the finish. He has form over 10f, which could be an advantage in what looks like being a strongly run race, although that will also suit both Cloch Nua and Daafy.

At the prices, I went for Cloch Nua as my main bet and a little on Taravara because of that extra at the finish.
 
PHS said:
Take first and look later;

12:35 Lin
Ower Starlight 7/2 1pt (11/4 best elsewhere)
Recuerdame 12/1 ew 4 places 1/4pt in total
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You see why! Ower 7/2 gone! Invisible Oddschecker done us a favour (maybe, maybe not)*

*B365 odds were'nt showing.
 
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See above

Ower Starlight (OS) has been on the go since early October and has hardly run a bad race in 8 runs, taking his mark from a lowly 46 to 56 tomorrow.

On two occasions he was badly drawn over 7f at Wolves (stall 10 both times) but was beaten no more than 1.5L, the 2nd time in a Median OR 57.5. On both occasions the jockeys elected to lead from those wide draws, but he's by no means a horse that has to take the lead, as his recent races under tomorrow's apprentice demonstrate.

His stand out form was when beating Giorgio Vasari (GV) 1.25L over tomorrow's C&D. Alex Voikhansky (AV) had him well settled just behind the leaders and soon made a point of not letting him get trapped on the rail as Jim Crowley had in his previous race. He followed Aurelia Gold (AG) into the straight and easily went past her 100yds out for a comfortable victory, albeit GV was closing fast near the finish.

The form with AG is quite interesting, as she ran in a 3yo handicap over C&D in Aug (5th) in which the first three have since improved their ratings by 14lb, 12lb and 9lb. GV is also 4lb higher now and despite a defeat last night (in which Joey Haynes didn't give his best performance) I think 61 could be about right and through him I'd rate OS about 60.

Fly The Nest has tumbled down the weights from a high of 63 in early 2021 to 48 by Oct 22, a mark he easily won a low grade Wolv hcp off, the race not much better than a Classified and with not much going on to improve the image of the race subsequently. He's run a couple of fair races since in slightly better company inc when 1.25L 2nd to GV LTO. He now finds himself 7lb higher than for his win off 48. I'd rate him about 59 but with AV claiming 7lb on OS tomorrow, he appears to face a stiff task.

Recuerdame is a lowly rated animal that has been running against better horses. He ran two races over C&D recently that seem to give him some sort of chance tomorrow. On 12th Nov he was 3rd off 49 behind two horses rated 64 and 62 but was badly hampered well over 1f out, otherwise I feel he could have challenged the leader and would certainly have finished 2nd. More recently, he actually won a 0-52 race over C&D. On both occasions he was slowly away but there was a good pace on and Luke Morris rode him very well. There looks to be plenty of pace on again tomorrow but unfortunately LM is not on board and Paddy Bradley doesn't have a great record for Simon Dow.

Dutugamunu would have a good chance if fit having run well in better races in the spring. Chances are he won't be ready for this though.

No Such Luck usually runs over 10f and has dropped dramatically in the weights. This is his first attempt at this C&D but he didn't show much over a mile at Kempton earlier in his career.
 
I like Ower Starlight for this too.
Formbook says he was beaten 6.5 lengths last time into third.
However, look closer and you'll find that the odds-on Mick Appleby/Horse Watchers winner has gone 3/3 since, whilst the second, (sibling of Accidental Agent and Sir Xaar), was coming into the race on a hat-trick, only just beating this one home.
No disgrace in that performance whatsoever.
This doesn't look as strong a race to me.

Incidentally, Ower Starlight must be one of the lowest rated four year old plus entires in training.
Probably nothing in that, seeing as he's homebred and Richard Hannon Snr trained the dam, (who showed promise as a two year old but didn't train on at three). However, I found that intriguing!
 
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mattyboy said:
Incidentally, Ower Starlight must be one of the lowest rated four year old plus entires in training.
Click to expand...

Here's some more low rated entire's that ran in the last year or so. I haven't checked which has the lowest OR currently.

Channel Packet
Fiscal Policy
Ilhabela Fact
Jeremiah Johnson
Little Raven
Ok Pal
Ower Starlight
Planxty
Rocky Sea
Roman Tempest
Shabs
Solanna
Wonderful Thing
 
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