2022/23 AW
- Thread starter PHS
- Start date
15:50 Wol - Plumette 0.5pt @12/1 & 0.5pt 9/2 2 places
All went 12/1 so was twiddling my thumbs waiting for 14/1 and it's just started to get smashed.
It hasn't gone well for David Loughnane with no winners in the last 30 days, but with one winner today, could he make it 2-2 with Plumette (returning from a 186 day absence)?
The trainers figures in 4yo+ Hcps for the last three complete January's are;
26.92%
24.14%
23.53%
In that same period he has a 56% strike rate with horses returning after a 46-150 day absence and 3-5 for 91-150 days.
Plumette won a 7f Fillies Hcp over C&D 2TO for Loughnane in a fast 1m 26.95sec. The horse she beat that day, Valentinka won by 4L on the next occasion she visited the track, off the same mark.
Plumette then won a Median OR 73 race off 65 over the 8.5f track, showinga good turn of foot to beat last night's winner Arcadian Nights by a comfortable 2.25L.The 2nd to 5th have all won at least twice since. She gets to race off just a 3lb higher mark tomorrow in a Median OR 68 race.
Fav Politics (72) looked good when winning at Ling LTO but he met Free Solo running off 77 (probably high in the weights now), and the 3rd placed horse is rated just 57. The handicapper has only raised him 3lb for that win but he runs with a 5lb penalty. He's yet to run over 7f but based on the way he finished over 6f there on 04/12/21 (ran off 80) the trip shouldn't be a problem.
All went 12/1 so was twiddling my thumbs waiting for 14/1 and it's just started to get smashed.
It hasn't gone well for David Loughnane with no winners in the last 30 days, but with one winner today, could he make it 2-2 with Plumette (returning from a 186 day absence)?
The trainers figures in 4yo+ Hcps for the last three complete January's are;
26.92%
24.14%
23.53%
In that same period he has a 56% strike rate with horses returning after a 46-150 day absence and 3-5 for 91-150 days.
Plumette won a 7f Fillies Hcp over C&D 2TO for Loughnane in a fast 1m 26.95sec. The horse she beat that day, Valentinka won by 4L on the next occasion she visited the track, off the same mark.
Plumette then won a Median OR 73 race off 65 over the 8.5f track, showinga good turn of foot to beat last night's winner Arcadian Nights by a comfortable 2.25L.The 2nd to 5th have all won at least twice since. She gets to race off just a 3lb higher mark tomorrow in a Median OR 68 race.
Fav Politics (72) looked good when winning at Ling LTO but he met Free Solo running off 77 (probably high in the weights now), and the 3rd placed horse is rated just 57. The handicapper has only raised him 3lb for that win but he runs with a 5lb penalty. He's yet to run over 7f but based on the way he finished over 6f there on 04/12/21 (ran off 80) the trip shouldn't be a problem.
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18:00 Wol - 7f Cl6 0-60 Hcp
0.5pt Local Bay 11/1
Won over C&D off 57 at the end of Sept but probably ran his best race for Carroll FTO after switching from O'Meara in March last year when he was 3rd of 11 btn 0.5L in a 0-65 running off 64.
Negatives are stall 10 of13 12 and his last run was 51 days ago (that close 3rd was after 57 days off) but the way he won his last race over C&D suggests he is well enough handicapped to win this if fit.
The other two I had as contenders are Port Noir (dropped down to 60) and Split Elevens (went close last time) but they make little appeal at current prices.
0.5pt Local Bay 11/1
Won over C&D off 57 at the end of Sept but probably ran his best race for Carroll FTO after switching from O'Meara in March last year when he was 3rd of 11 btn 0.5L in a 0-65 running off 64.
Negatives are stall 10 of
The other two I had as contenders are Port Noir (dropped down to 60) and Split Elevens (went close last time) but they make little appeal at current prices.
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17:30 Wol - My Boy Jack 0.25pt @ 12, more waiting on BFSP rec. Edit more at 12 and 15 didn't match.
Although the selection is a 20 race maiden, there are signs that this 7f trip will suit better than his usual 6f.
He probably ran his best recent race when a running on 3rd three runs back here over 6f beaten less than 1L from stall 12 of 12.He went up 1lb for that but is now 3lb lower off 53.
Previously, his best race might've been over 7f at Ling where he was 0.5L 2nd in a Median OR 59, sandwiched between a 62 and 65 horse.
Although the selection is a 20 race maiden, there are signs that this 7f trip will suit better than his usual 6f.
He probably ran his best recent race when a running on 3rd three runs back here over 6f beaten less than 1L from stall 12 of 12.He went up 1lb for that but is now 3lb lower off 53.
Previously, his best race might've been over 7f at Ling where he was 0.5L 2nd in a Median OR 59, sandwiched between a 62 and 65 horse.
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20:30 Wol - Hot Day 0.5pt EW @7/1 3 places (7 run)
Hot Day was running well in these sort of races off 62 a year ago and now finds himself on 53. He ran a cracker on penultimate start here over 8.5f only beaten narrowly by the in-form Broughton's Flair who won again NTO without Billy on board (effectively an 11lb hike). The 3rd in that race also won NTO.
It's also worth taking a look at the 7th Feb 2022 race in which Hot Day was 4th; the others in the first six have won multiple times since.
Hot Day was running well in these sort of races off 62 a year ago and now finds himself on 53. He ran a cracker on penultimate start here over 8.5f only beaten narrowly by the in-form Broughton's Flair who won again NTO without Billy on board (effectively an 11lb hike). The 3rd in that race also won NTO.
It's also worth taking a look at the 7th Feb 2022 race in which Hot Day was 4th; the others in the first six have won multiple times since.
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4.25 at Lingfield Grandee 6/1 win
This 9 year old has achieved little for the Bests since leaving Roger Fell back in November 2020 and is now a nine year old.
However, on penultimate start for previous yard, he was a 1.25 length 2nd in a 0-85 at Ripon over 1m6f and had form at 2miles on the flat prior to this. Indeed, Grandee was a Listed winner in Ireland as a three year old, so certainly has back-class on the flat.
Grandee is a very low-grade hurdler but has had only two starts on the flat since joining the yard. Both have come in the past month and the second was better than the first, (over this trip). Was pretty weak in the market on both occasions.
What I find interesting is that Adam Kirby was an early booking for today. He has ridden very little over the past few months, but comes back for two rides for this yard today in pretty low-key races. I'd say this may be the main ride as Grandee is also entered in another 2m handicap on the flat next week, and this yard have past form for booking big-name jockeys when one of theirs is expected to win. The yard have also won with two of their last three runners under both codes.
Interesting
This 9 year old has achieved little for the Bests since leaving Roger Fell back in November 2020 and is now a nine year old.
However, on penultimate start for previous yard, he was a 1.25 length 2nd in a 0-85 at Ripon over 1m6f and had form at 2miles on the flat prior to this. Indeed, Grandee was a Listed winner in Ireland as a three year old, so certainly has back-class on the flat.
Grandee is a very low-grade hurdler but has had only two starts on the flat since joining the yard. Both have come in the past month and the second was better than the first, (over this trip). Was pretty weak in the market on both occasions.
What I find interesting is that Adam Kirby was an early booking for today. He has ridden very little over the past few months, but comes back for two rides for this yard today in pretty low-key races. I'd say this may be the main ride as Grandee is also entered in another 2m handicap on the flat next week, and this yard have past form for booking big-name jockeys when one of theirs is expected to win. The yard have also won with two of their last three runners under both codes.
Interesting
18:00 Kem - Golden Sands 1pt @13/2
I thought Golden Sands won with a bit more in hand than the commentator made out over C&D last time. That was despite getting taken on for the lead. Although he's gone up 5lb for that, importantly, he still gets into a Class 5 race.
Sense Of Worth (TF selection) ran an eyecatching race last time for new trainer Lee Carter, but for me swapping Clifford Lee for Joey Haynes is a big negative; 3/1 Fav tonight surprises me.
Stately Home would have a chance on his back end Turf form but the long absence is a negative for me.
Roscioli coming back in trip from 12/11f is interesting and Balding has a 20% strike rate at this time of the year on the AW.
I thought Golden Sands won with a bit more in hand than the commentator made out over C&D last time. That was despite getting taken on for the lead. Although he's gone up 5lb for that, importantly, he still gets into a Class 5 race.
Sense Of Worth (TF selection) ran an eyecatching race last time for new trainer Lee Carter, but for me swapping Clifford Lee for Joey Haynes is a big negative; 3/1 Fav tonight surprises me.
Stately Home would have a chance on his back end Turf form but the long absence is a negative for me.
Roscioli coming back in trip from 12/11f is interesting and Balding has a 20% strike rate at this time of the year on the AW.
Done this again tonight, so as I've not closed off this thread, thought I'd add it just in case.
The horse goes well here and I suspect he's still feasibly well enough handicapped to win this at his favourite track. It is a higher grade than he's being running in though.
13/2 BOG for 0.5pt
. I'd virtually just posted when your like came up.
. TF going given as Slow, which maybe affected the result !?!Now that you've said that, I looked and all of his wins have been on TF Slow. The filly's a good one.