tony spencer
Filly
Analysis for 2.45 Race at Southwell on 04/06/2024
Winning Opportunities (Rank 1 and 2)
Horse Name: The Wolf (FR)- Rank: 1
- Age: 10
- Weight: 168
- Forecast Odds: 10
- Track: SOUTHWELL (GB)
- Type of Race: Chase
- Days Since Last Run: 41
- Improving: 1
- Trainer: Olly Murphy
- Positive Pointers (TPos): 0
- Negative Pointers (TNeg): 0
- Model Prediction (Network): 22%
- Pace Figure: 1.62
- Pace Rank: 2
- Jumper Comments: Makes many mistakes
Analysis:
- Performance: The Wolf has shown improvement and has a high pace figure.
- Fitness: With 41 days since the last run, fitness appears adequate.
- Winning Chance: Given the forecast odds of 10, this horse has a good potential to win. The model predicts a 22% chance of winning despite the jumping mistakes.
Horse Name: Crystal Moon (IRE)
- Rank: 2
- Age: 7
- Weight: 159
- Forecast Odds: 4
- Track: SOUTHWELL (GB)
- Type of Race: Chase
- Days Since Last Run: 51
- Improving: 2
- Trainer: Alan King
- Positive Pointers (TPos): 0
- Negative Pointers (TNeg): 0
- Model Prediction (Network): 20%
- Pace Figure: 1.25
- Pace Rank: 3
- Jumper Comments: Makes many mistakes
Analysis:
- Performance: Crystal Moon shows good improvement and a solid pace figure.
- Fitness: With 51 days since the last run, fitness should be adequate.
- Winning Chance: Given the forecast odds of 4, this horse has a strong potential to win. The model predicts a 20% chance of winning despite the jumping mistakes.
Lay Opportunities (Rank 5 and Above)
Horse Name: Do No Wrong (IRE)- Rank: 3
- Age: 8
- Weight: 154
- Forecast Odds: 8
- Track: SOUTHWELL (GB)
- Type of Race: Chase
- Days Since Last Run: 53
- Improving: 1
- Trainer: Justin Landy
- Positive Pointers (TPos): 0
- Negative Pointers (TNeg): 0
- Model Prediction (Network): 15%
- Pace Figure: -3.62
- Pace Rank: 6
- Jumper Comments: Makes many mistakes
Analysis:
- Performance: Do No Wrong shows minimal improvement and a negative pace figure.
- Fitness: With 53 days since the last run, fitness should be adequate.
- Lay Potential: Given the forecast odds of 8, this horse represents a lay opportunity due to its poor pace figure and jumping mistakes. The model predicts a low chance of winning.
Horse Name: Galloping Pride (IRE)
- Rank: 6
- Age: 7
- Weight: 156
- Forecast Odds: 12
- Track: SOUTHWELL (GB)
- Type of Race: Chase
- Days Since Last Run: 39
- Improving: -2
- Trainer: Emma Lavelle
- Positive Pointers (TPos): 0
- Negative Pointers (TNeg): 0
- Model Prediction (Network): 11%
- Pace Figure: -0.88
- Pace Rank: 5
- Jumper Comments: Makes mistakes
Analysis:
- Performance: Galloping Pride shows negative improvement and has several jumping mistakes.
- Fitness: With 39 days since the last run, fitness should be adequate.
- Lay Potential: Given the forecast odds of 12, this horse represents a lay opportunity due to its poor form and jumping mistakes. The model predicts a low chance of winning.