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<>1.5ht

footysystems

footysystems

Gelding
Hi,

Just going to trial this might be a bag of crap, but lets see..

I am going too try and find value each week in the Prem and Championship, backing either <1.5goals HT or >1.5goalsHT

Like i say i have no data for this just a hunch:confused:

Ok using data from football data of course.Untitled.png

Untitled 1.png

Now the prices are the value prices from my calculator nearer the day i will add betfair prices so we can see where the value is or is not.

Again this is only a test :)
 
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Kevin Pullein did an interesting article in the RFO this week about half time goals. Its entitled "it can pay to go high on first half goal lines". The title kind of gives it away and in general advocates going over on HT >1.5 There is a little table he includes that shows in matches with expected total goals of 2.6 (Uk average for expected goals) it is exactly a 50/50 split between the ratio of no first half goals to two or more first half goals. I can scan it and send it if you are interested.

One thing i did consider but never looked into it with half time betting is hedging with a draw bet. So if you back the under 1.5 goals and also back the half time draw you get several scenarios.
0-0 win both bets
0-1 or 1-0 win the under bet
1-1, 2-2, 3-3 win the draw bet
2-0 or any other scoreline lose both bets.
 
oddsfellow said:
Kevin Pullein did an interesting article in the RFO this week about half time goals. Its entitled "it can pay to go high on first half goal lines". The title kind of gives it away and in general advocates going over on HT >1.5 There is a little table he includes that shows in matches with expected total goals of 2.6 (Uk average for expected goals) it is exactly a 50/50 split between the ratio of no first half goals to two or more first half goals. I can scan it and send it if you are interested.

One thing i did consider but never looked into it with half time betting is hedging with a draw bet. So if you back the under 1.5 goals and also back the half time draw you get several scenarios.
0-0 win both bets
0-1 or 1-0 win the under bet
1-1, 2-2, 3-3 win the draw bet
2-0 or any other scoreline lose both bets.
Click to expand...
Nice bit of info there oddsfellow thanks

Bit of stats stuff off topic to the thread but this is a nice stat City v Chelski look at City home BTTS AND HOME win looks nice @ 9/4 @ hills

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