VDW VDW-Bets

[Michael231]

Was the trainer getting ready for this race or one to come.

 

[Kraldrew]

He produced the top RPR of all the runners in his LTO race went up 7 pds but used a 7lb claimer which nullified the weight so i think so

 

[Leodis]

13:50 Ayr

Runner	Con	Ability	EB	Class	Erin	2nd
Phantom Flight 9-8	6.1	206	97	2	5	5
Enfjaar 9-5	7.4	205	95	2	5	11
Persica 9-0	1.4	205	96	1	6	5
Sir Busker 9-5	4.1	198	93	-13	7	12
Under The Sun 9-0	1.4	189	-36	2	7	5
Eydon 9-5	5.6	146	85	3	7	4

Phantom Flight
Conditions are ok.
2nd (-1.75) to fav whilst going up in class [-1] and receiving weight from fav (10lb). Key horse was dropping in class [+4].

I think it still has the beating of Enfjaar, based on their LTO details

Persica
Conditions ok.
3rd (-3.75) to fav, whilst going up in class [-15] and fav gave 7lb.
Key horse down in class [+2]

Another tough call. There's sound reasoning to Dutch the pair at current odds, but I will go with PF (20/80).

 

[Leodis]

Wrong bet choice!

 

[Kraldrew]

​	​	1425 Ayr​	​	​
Summerghand​	​	60​	​	Elim​
Alfa Kellenic​	​	135​	​	​
Two Tribes​	​	47​	​	​
Rhythm N Hooves​	​	45​	​	Elim​
Admiral D​	​	43​	​	Elim​
​	​	​	​	​

 

[Kraldrew]

​	​	​	​	​
​	​	1535 Ayr​	​	​
Commanche Falls​	​	140​	​	??????​
​	​	​	​	​
Ramazan​	​	154​	​	​
​	​	​	​	​
American Affair​	​	99​	​	​
Room Service​	​	263​	​	​
​	​	​	​	​

 

[Kraldrew]

Commanche Falls tops the list however is rating is taken from the 2nd Lto race he fails on Lto run but i dont want to leave him out Either

The other 3 from their Lto

Overall im happy with the 4 so we shall see

 

[Kraldrew]

1610 Ham Digital 9/1
Won over this CD 4 races ago off 77 RPR of 88 off 9.11
Then 2 Lto was 4 lens 4th to Moonstone Boy off 81 who he reopposes on 6lb better terms earning an 88 RPR
I am willing to forgive him his lto carrying 10 stone as i think this could be a target

Running off 79 10 lb better off racing with 9.1 4th in Ability been quite consistent for the past 3 races excluding lto at 9/1 think he is worth a nibble he is 2 from 5 at the course has won on the ground 5 times distance winner .

After all that N/R

 

[Kraldrew]

1930 Wolv
Jojo Rabbit
Pop Dancer

 

[Kraldrew]

Never Dark ? Michael231

 

[Michael231]

@ Kraldrew
Sorry I thought better of it, don't want to be a after timer.

 

[DuckandDive]

@ Kraldrew
Sorry I thought better of it, don't want to be a after timer.

It's ok, it's a VDW-esque thread after all....

 

[Kraldrew]

Lol its fine DuckandDive i did notice his LTO was Avg 90 However until Digital was a N/R he was not in top 5 Ability and i did not notice until a minute before the race so was too late to change and i did not check spd figs

Amaysmont had the same profile and Master of Command though have not checked ability etc on those 2

 

[Kraldrew]

Michael231 its fine was it Never Dark ?

 

[Michael231]

Michael231 its fine was it Never Dark ?

Yes. K Kraldrew
Had improved form last race, odds were short for horse out of form, so thought the people in the know knew something.
The prev race had high rated horses in front of it and had nothing of that calibre here today.
The only thing that worried me was the jockey.
I had picked it for the competition as well, others must have known as the price shortened quite a lot.
What I'm saying is keep an eye out for horses that were shorter than they should or thought they should have been as it might be a touch for next time.

 

[Michael231]

This is why I can only look at 1 or maybe 2 races with limited time and resources to get through them quicker.

 

[Kraldrew]

Yes totally agree with all you have said it also had 2nd best spd rtg Lto Michael231

 

[Kraldrew]

Horse​	​	ABIL WPR​	MR​	Lto​	Lto 2​	Lto 3​	Spd Rtg​	Spd Rtg 2lto​	Spd Rtg 3lto​
Maxi Boy​	​	20​	71​	76​	78​	71​	36​	47​	74​
Harry Magnus​	​	18​	80​	74​	80​	80​	58​	70​	56​
The Cookstown Cafu​	​	21​	77​	67​	72​	74​	74​	56​	68​
Starshiba​	​	12​	82​	68​	75​	78​	68​	65​	70​
Streak Lightning​	​	15​	75​	61​	65​	73​	79​	58​	65​
B Associates​	​	10​	68​	66​	68​	67​	69​	70​	65​
Showtime Mahomes​	​	12​	70​	67​	63​	73​	54​	63​	53​
Patontheback​	​	8​	66​	67​	74​	71​	65​	68​	38​
Ideal Guest​	​	16​	70​	64​	0​	77​	60​	0​	76​
Admiral Nelson​	​	8​	68​	59​	54​	69​	54​	64​	38​

 

[Kraldrew]

2030 New 7f 4yo+ Hdcp
Probables
Maxi Boy
Harry Magus
The Cookstown Cafu
Streak Lightning
Ideal Guest
Maxi Boy and Harry Magnus and Ideal Guest ratings are from 3yo hdcp or Novice races which i do not trust so i will eliminate them.

That leaves me with The Cookstown Cafu and Streak Lightning .
Tcc looks the strongest with Ability,MR and Lto Form However SL speed rating is top for Lto
Tcc has also gone up 2lbs in OR and weight Sl has gone up 4 for OR but down 3lbs in weight also has a 5lb claimer which is 8lbs less than Lto

Streak Lightning looks the one to be on.

Maxi Boys Rating is by using TheBluesBrother Rpr conversion table which is excellent when you only have an Rpr and i have used @mimrobs excellent Speed Ratings

 

[Kraldrew]

If a N/r occurs then Starshiba and Showtime Mahomes then become probables due to Ability