Value ?

[DuckandDive]

I want other members to correct me thats the only way people like me and @ M mando will progress.

TBH it's not about correcting anyone, it's more about comparing each other's work. Some ideas stick, some don't.

I ran the numbers through the ARAZI91 sheets.

Using your ratings and data supplied





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[Sol Ski]

DuckandDive,
I paid a Cock and Hen to get past SP data to use for this race.

Horse	Your Model %	Current Price	Historical SP Band	Historical Win %	Model vs History
Cape Fear	20.82%	7/4	Evens–15/8	33.3%	-12.48 pp
Raulin	20.01%	5/1	5/1–17/2	11.0%	+9.01 pp
Morcar	16.89%	15/2	5/1–17/2	11.0%	+5.89 pp
Percival	12.42%	10/3	3/1–9/2	21.8%	-9.38 pp
Tai Hang Pegasus	11.99%	4/1	3/1–9/2	21.8%	-9.81 pp
Just An Hour	9.30%	6/1	5/1–17/2	11.0%	-1.70 pp
Melek Alreeh	8.57%	14/1	9/1–18/1	4.8%	+3.77 pp

 

[DuckandDive]

DuckandDive,
I paid a Cock and Hen to get past SP data to use for this race.

Horse	Your Model %	Current Price	Historical SP Band	Historical Win %	Model vs History
Cape Fear	20.82%	7/4	Evens–15/8	33.3%	-12.48 pp
Raulin	20.01%	5/1	5/1–17/2	11.0%	+9.01 pp
Morcar	16.89%	15/2	5/1–17/2	11.0%	+5.89 pp
Percival	12.42%	10/3	3/1–9/2	21.8%	-9.38 pp
Tai Hang Pegasus	11.99%	4/1	3/1–9/2	21.8%	-9.81 pp
Just An Hour	9.30%	6/1	5/1–17/2	11.0%	-1.70 pp
Melek Alreeh	8.57%	14/1	9/1–18/1	4.8%	+3.77 pp

Looks good. The more quality data used in a model will give you more accuracy.

You never know:

You could turn a cock and hen into a bag of sand, keep it Adam Faith, or maybe Fish tank it, or even scapa flow on a big biscuits and cheese up and spend it all.

 

[Sol Ski]

DuckandDive ,
@ current prices Raulin and morcar look like value bets.
you have got the better of me slang wise.