Thanks ArkRoyal, that's an interesting idea about betting when running well and easing off when short term success rate is on the decline, something I may look at doing, I certainly want to do more to either exploit running cold or limit the impact of running cold. I think it is something that is overlooked when it comes to betting.
Interesting the reversion to the mean, just started reading on it, this is the sort of thing I am interested in when it comes to betting. I really regret not doing mathematic statistics in my higher education years as I think it would be useful for my betting and in recent years I have seen some great jobs in sports betting companies where they want candidates with degrees in Statistics. I would love a job in sports betting but unfortunately do not have the relevant qualifications to open doors.
Between August 2024 and September 2025 I did record 4050 bets where I fancied the game to have over 1.5 goals, to use as a base to look into over 1.5 goals, over 2.5 goals and BTTS bets. When I say bets - I started off only recording bets which I put money on but then to start getting a far bigger database I started including games I fancied to have over 1.5 goals but didn't end up putting money on them just due to the vast number of matches each week. On my s/s I recorded odds of over 1.5 goals, 2.5 goals, BTTS, Home win odds, draw odds, away odds, time of 1st goal, time of 2nd goal, half time score, full time score, home team goals in second half, away team goals second half, total goals second half and league. I was hoping I was creating a cheat sheet and I could sort the data in terms of home team odds and over 1.5 or 2.5 goals odds and see how successful these matches were in terms of goal bets or looking at half time score and then checking what happened in games where home team odds and over 1.5/over 2.5 goal odds were the same to see where there was value. There were certainly patterns and some odds which had lots of goals and other odds which had very few goals but at the same time a lot just seemed random and I started to feel that there was a lot more to it than assuming all matches which have the same odds can be treated in the same way. But it also helped me track how many winners I was selecting and the swings in good and bad form and testing ideas about switching between backing my picks and laying my picks. From 4050 bets = 1982 ended under 2.5 goals, 2068 ended over 2.5 goals. Average odds of over 1.5 goals was 1.33 (using betfred's odds) and 2.0 for over 2.5 goals. Typically in those 4050 bets I recorded I was winning between 40-60 bets for each 100 bets. But it is very clear that winning and losing streaks are real, why it happens I am not sure, maybe it is just basic standard sample data, I am sure if I spun a coin 4000 times I'd have runs where I spin 20 heads in 25 spins and then vica versa with tails. I personally don't believe I am going to crack the code of finding a 10% ROI by mastering how to select a match which has over 2.5 goals but I am hoping I may be able to do it by exploiting trends.
