UKBF Common Race

[ARAZI91]

I agree the connections can always pull one out of their arse for what seems like a negative situation, but unless you have some solid evidence I guess you've got to go with the general trend.

I did a quick test and in races where I have given one or more trainers strong ratings , the strike rate for trainers with 0 for my trainer ratings in those races is 5%.
For Geoffrey Deacon himself it's 2%.

So imo this provides a very mixed message for Hepijeu

Agree pawras - although there are better metrics than just the "number counting" stats like win % and place % etc. I like % of rivals beaten which i know Timeform use , and there are others - AE (Actual/Expectation) figs against either SP or BF market. WAX - Wins Against Expected market expectation is another. Hard to encompass all that into one figure but could be done and if monitored and tracked from a base point - say last two years and data points tracked like Last 10 runs , Last 25 runs would give a truer more complete picture of Trainer form and identify which trainers are coming in or going out of form - like a running handicap of trainers - could be done with jockeys too. You would have to include some sort of "market metric" as a) a 2nd place finish from a 40-1 shot is better than b) a 2nd place finish from an even money shot. The first is extremely positive but the second is arguably negative but standard rating systems just count it the same.


in fact there are trainer ratings on the Chesham Class Ratings sheets which actually calculate similar type figures!

 

[ARAZI91]

Dylanseoghan 2nd lats run and was staying on so step up in trip will suit. The third has won since from that race

i also thought the winner of that race ran solid enough next time as well runnerjp

 

[ARAZI91]

2 of the field today are up for sale on the trainers websites
Dylanseoghan & Fly Home Harry - shares available in both.



Interesting Longsdon said FHH sulked last time.

Zoe Davidson had this to say of Dylanseoghan's last run

 

[markfinn]

So 1 stat has jumped out in this race today for me and its the Trainer and Jockey Statistics

View attachment 54626

these 4 horses are also top of the market so another big tick.

Remove
What Larks has shown nothing in his last 9 stats so not for me
Tommy Rascal does not have much form and was well help last time out so no form me.
Over My Head had best run lto but up 5lb and don't fancy it against the rest


Rightly so this leave the rest all around the same price at the top of the market.

Riverside City has shown nothing on previous efforts but I know that Jonjo's horses can just come back and make all with no form to go by and is on a good mark
Fly Home harry this horse is the one that will lead and this race pays well to not be held up so tick. Jockey likes this course and ignore his last run as the ground was unsuited and off the same mark today should fair better on soft ground.
View attachment 54628
Hepijue has come second last 3 starts and surly ready to win soon - or is it a case of a horse that just never wants to get its nose infront?
Usual for those 2nds the handicapper move you up in the weights but he's actually three pound lower than for the first of those.
Global Domination the move back down in trip looks a good move here along with the jockey combo who knows this horse could be up front today near the finish
Dylanseoghan 2nd lats run and was staying on so step up in trip will suit. The third has won since from that race and drops down in class. The yard is in good form and thats trainer jockey combo looks spot on.


Avery hard race to pin down but if I had to pick i would go with Dylanseoghan! I just cant et away fro mthe yards form and the jockey trainer combo stat.

I would play it like this 20% on the win marker @ 5.2 and 80% on top 3.

so 10 stake would be

£2 on win @ 5.1 = £8.60 return
£8 on top 3 @ 2.0 = £8 return

I use a hybryd of Proform stats for my jockey and trainer as they very accurate - have it slightly different to you



Looked last night and could not see a way but now - This is a goer for me dutching top 4
Good luck to all

 

[ARAZI91]

Jonjo's usually improve a bit on the third and fourth run after a layoff
R3 & R4

quite profitable on BF figures too.

 

[pawras]

Agree pawras - although there are better metrics than just the "number counting" stats like win % and place % etc. I like % of rivals beaten which i know Timeform use , and there are others - AE (Actual/Expectation) figs against either SP or BF market. WAX - Wins Against Expected market expectation is another. Hard to encompass all that into one figure but could be done and if monitored and tracked from a base point - say last two years and data points tracked like Last 10 runs , Last 25 runs would give a truer more complete picture of Trainer form and identify which trainers are coming in or going out of form - like a running handicap of trainers - could be done with jockeys too. You would have to include some sort of "market metric" as a) a 2nd place finish from a 40-1 shot is better than b) a 2nd place finish from an even money shot. The first is extremely positive but the second is arguably negative but standard rating systems just count it the same.

View attachment 54629
in fact there are trainer ratings on the Chesham Class Ratings sheets which actually calculate similar type figures!

In my trainer ratings the value derived does take into account, to a degree, the performance of other trainers at that course racetype.
Plus I have two trainer ratings , long and short term. But I don't weight results according to their odds, hhmm interesting.

 

[ARAZI91]

Zoe Davison's figures for horses coming back from layoffs
Make your own mind up here as Dylanseoghan is having his second run after a year off

But she's poor in this department - most of her winners come from a LR of within 30 days and are backed up by a similar recent run.

 

[ARAZI91]

In my trainer ratings the value derived does take into account, to a degree, the performance of other trainers at that course racetype.
Plus I have two trainer ratings , long and short term. But I don't weight results according to their odds, hhmm interesting.

pawras - i have had a looksey at your site mate - your trainer and jockey ratings are very predictive and the long and short term comparision is a good way to go about it.

 

[pawras]

If you look at the trainer ratings for Huntingdon today it produced a nice result for the 1330, but I didn't fancy the horse "Just So Cool" that much

 

[Pingman]

Just got in and had a look, the race which Fly Home Harry won at Ludlow has worked out reallly well, so I will forgive the last run on Good/Firm and risk a place bet maybe

Good luck

 

[ARAZI91]

Has to be a No-Bet for me.
Global Domination & Dylanseoghan were two who interested me , but the race shape is pretty tight and there is not much separation between the full field. Caroline Bailey's stats are good for horses on 3rd run off a layoff and she also has done well with horses in cheekpieces after their first run. Dylanseoghan is very lightly raced for a 9yo and has upside with expected improvement. Chance of a bounce though , and trainer layoff stats a small negative but should run well - form has worked out well from last race. Jonjo's is the unknown for me.
Too many Could's & Should's.
Caroline Bailey - R3 is generally an improvement

& Cheekpieces


Best of luck to all if playing!

 

[Samacas]

Fly Home Harry - Unsuited by course and going LTO, will be better today
Riverside City - Never been placed Dec/Jan/Feb 0/12 but has won R/H Dropped in class since joining Jonjo and all runs left handed.
Helpijeu - Another summer horse. All wins May- Sept but has won here
Dylaseoghan - Best form on undulating courses
What Larks - Won at the distance in heavy ground but well beaten or not finished since
Global Domination - Won twice on going but not right handed. Three rides by Skelton has finished 213. Gets a chance at the weights
Over My Head - 2nd over C/D on boxing day. Will need to step up today but no weight and a good course jockey on board
Tommy The Rascal - Has won a hurdle here but best chase form on undulating courses

My 3 in any order - Fly Home Harry, Global Domination and Over my head

 

[elmoputney]

I think Hepijue runs well at Huntingdon but think it will fade at this trip, I couldn't decide other than that

 

[pawras]

Some good craic and exchange of thoughts/ideas.

Helpijeu has drifted like a barge on the exchange to the extent of being a red flag for me.

 

[markfinn]

Well done all who highlighted Harry - what a market ! - Just shows a false favourite and value all over - where are we of tommorow some decent racing on NH and AW - could do both if any one wants to propose

 

[pawras]

I'm having a dabble with the first and last race at Dundalk tonight.

 

[ARAZI91]

well done Pingman & Samacas and anybody else who had FHH

 

[ARAZI91]

I'm having a dabble with the first and last race at Dundalk tonight.

I think Jenniechild in the first has many positives - well handicapped , nicely berthed , jockey upgrade and Peter Fahey in the last year is a 16% trainer in amongst a group of trainers who struggle to beat 10% . Bad last run by the horse makes the price. 10-1 is very decent in this field where 8 of the 12 wear some sort of equipment and are generally unreliable sorts apart from the top one who is a danger.

 

[runnerjp]

Well done Pingman and Samacas ..tough race that .

Do any of you ever read back thought what you out and think why did i put all those posatives and not pick it lol

 

[pawras]

I think Jenniechild in the first has many positives - well handicapped , nicely berthed , jockey upgrade and Peter Fahey in the last year is a 16% trainer in amongst a group of trainers who struggle to beat 10% . Bad last run by the horse makes the price. 10-1 is very decent in this field where 8 of the 12 wear some sort of equipment and are generally unreliable sorts apart from the top one who is a danger.

I'm pretty much in line with the betting