Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day
- Thread starter markfinn
- Start date
DuckandDive
Mare
If I were creating a Back/Lay book for on-course, based on value (Kelly), I'd keep the green (back) qualifiers on my side, and build the book around the red qualifiers (lay). The other runners would be, where possible, break even.
If I was right, I'd increase the profit on the value qualifiers, (backs & lays). If I'm wrong, then the most at risk is 2.5% of the bank.
The most accurate picture, taking into account all the information, would be 5 minutes before the off-time.
For purposes of the thread, both Rogue Citation 9/2+ and Lovers Leap 15/2+ look value backs.
If I was right, I'd increase the profit on the value qualifiers, (backs & lays). If I'm wrong, then the most at risk is 2.5% of the bank.
The most accurate picture, taking into account all the information, would be 5 minutes before the off-time.
For purposes of the thread, both Rogue Citation 9/2+ and Lovers Leap 15/2+ look value backs.
Last edited:
TheBluesBrother
Dam
19:00 Southwell.
Kamaway
Won at Yarmouth in May and got up in the final strides at Salisbury (again 1m on good) in June; the backward steps on her last two starts are a worry (although they were at 1m2f) and her attempts on AW (first four races) aren't a match for her subsequent turf form.
Full Flat MR Table
(Missing MR = 0. Ranked by Best Flat MR descending.)
Best MR: Kamaway (62)
Best Average: Kamaway (57.5)
Best Edge: Kamaway (+8)
On your Flat MR method, Kamaway rates clear top, with Likeness, Jojo's Legacy, and Rogue Citation the next strongest profiles.
Kamaway
Won at Yarmouth in May and got up in the final strides at Salisbury (again 1m on good) in June; the backward steps on her last two starts are a worry (although they were at 1m2f) and her attempts on AW (first four races) aren't a match for her subsequent turf form.
Full Flat MR Table
(Missing MR = 0. Ranked by Best Flat MR descending.)
| Horse | Full MR List | OR | Best MR | Best 2 Avg | MR+17 | MR+17 − OR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likeness | 54, 60, 39, 13, 31, 44 | 75 | 60 | 57.0 | 77 | +2 |
| Rogue Citation | 49, 56, 57, 39, 29, 38 | 74 | 57 | 56.5 | 74 | 0 |
| Jojo's Legacy | 57, 46, 28, 47, 37, 30 | 67 | 57 | 52.0 | 74 | +7 |
| Style Of Life | 31, 56, 32, 19, 56, 50 | 75 | 56 | 56.0 | 73 | -2 |
| Poets Praise | 54, 43, 0, 21 | 75 | 54 | 48.5 | 71 | -4 |
| Kamaway | 52, 53, 62, 53, 53, 33 | 71 | 62 | 57.5 | 79 | +8 |
| Wondrous Light | 49, 38, 49, 39, 53, 43 | 74 | 53 | 51.0 | 70 | -4 |
| Lovers Leap | 19, 39, 37, 54, 46, 32 | 69 | 54 | 50.0 | 71 | +2 |
| Silken Bay | 39, 0, 30, 35, 6, 28 | 71 | 39 | 37.0 | 56 | -15 |
Correctly Sorted by Best MR
| Horse | Best MR | Best 2 Avg | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaway | 62 | 57.5 | +8 |
| Likeness | 60 | 57.0 | +2 |
| Rogue Citation | 57 | 56.5 | 0 |
| Jojo's Legacy | 57 | 52.0 | +7 |
| Style Of Life | 56 | 56.0 | -2 |
| Poets Praise | 54 | 48.5 | -4 |
| Lovers Leap | 54 | 50.0 | +2 |
| Wondrous Light | 53 | 51.0 | -4 |
| Silken Bay | 39 | 37.0 | -15 |
Sorted by Best 2 Average
| Horse | Best 2 Avg |
|---|---|
| Kamaway | 57.5 |
| Likeness | 57.0 |
| Rogue Citation | 56.5 |
| Style Of Life | 56.0 |
| Jojo's Legacy | 52.0 |
| Wondrous Light | 51.0 |
| Lovers Leap | 50.0 |
| Poets Praise | 48.5 |
| Silken Bay | 37.0 |
Positive Edge Qualifiers
| Horse | Best MR | Best 2 Avg | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaway | 62 | 57.5 | +8 |
| Jojo's Legacy | 57 | 52.0 | +7 |
| Likeness | 60 | 57.0 | +2 |
| Lovers Leap | 54 | 50.0 | +2 |
| Rogue Citation | 57 | 56.5 | 0 |
Flat MR Top 4
| Horse | Best MR | Best 2 Avg | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaway | 62 | 57.5 | +8 |
| Likeness | 60 | 57.0 | +2 |
| Jojo's Legacy | 57 | 52.0 | +7 |
| Rogue Citation | 57 | 56.5 | 0 |
Best Average: Kamaway (57.5)
Best Edge: Kamaway (+8)
On your Flat MR method, Kamaway rates clear top, with Likeness, Jojo's Legacy, and Rogue Citation the next strongest profiles.
MySportsAI
Colt
WoM consensus says Rogue Citation
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,ROGUE CITATION,"['2.0', '1.0', '1.0', '2.0', '3.0', '5.0']",14.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,KAMAWAY,"['4.0', '5.0', '2.0', '1.0', '7.0', '3.0']",22.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,LIKENESS,"['3.0', '3.0', '3.0', '4.0', '4.0', '6.0']",23.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,POETS PRAISE,"['5.0', '2.0', '8.0', '8.0', '2.0', '2.0']",27.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,WONDROUS LIGHT,"['6.0', '6.0', '4.0', '3.0', '6.0', '4.0']",29.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,LOVERS LEAP,"['8.0', '4.0', '5.0', '6.0', '5.0', '1.0']",29.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,JOJOS LEGACY,"['1.0', '8.0', '6.0', '7.0', '8.0', '7.0']",37.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,STYLE OF LIFE,"['9.0', '7.0', '9.0', '5.0', '1.0', '8.0']",39.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,SILKEN BAY,"['7.0', '9.0', '7.0', '9.0', '9.0', '9.0']",50.0
WoM Regression says Rogue Citation
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,ROGUE CITATION,0.03,1.0,1.0,0.88,0.51,0.28,0.22536002187414073
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,KAMAWAY,0.16,0.4,0.82,1.0,0.06,0.54,0.12473127831878948
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,LIKENESS,0.15,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.34,0.19,0.11239362986209445
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,POETS PRAISE,0.49,0.77,0.23,0.12,0.65,0.61,0.10680353266676808
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,STYLE OF LIFE,1.0,0.24,0.0,0.57,1.0,0.09,0.0935912555658672
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,LOVERS LEAP,0.78,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.1,1.0,0.08377993537158816
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,WONDROUS LIGHT,0.56,0.38,0.52,0.63,0.07,0.3,0.06982153175706601
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,JOJOS LEGACY,0.0,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.05,0.14,0.054870490086650736
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,SILKEN BAY,0.67,0.0,0.24,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.04227472368231135
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,ROGUE CITATION,"['2.0', '1.0', '1.0', '2.0', '3.0', '5.0']",14.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,KAMAWAY,"['4.0', '5.0', '2.0', '1.0', '7.0', '3.0']",22.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,LIKENESS,"['3.0', '3.0', '3.0', '4.0', '4.0', '6.0']",23.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,POETS PRAISE,"['5.0', '2.0', '8.0', '8.0', '2.0', '2.0']",27.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,WONDROUS LIGHT,"['6.0', '6.0', '4.0', '3.0', '6.0', '4.0']",29.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,LOVERS LEAP,"['8.0', '4.0', '5.0', '6.0', '5.0', '1.0']",29.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,JOJOS LEGACY,"['1.0', '8.0', '6.0', '7.0', '8.0', '7.0']",37.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,STYLE OF LIFE,"['9.0', '7.0', '9.0', '5.0', '1.0', '8.0']",39.0
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,SILKEN BAY,"['7.0', '9.0', '7.0', '9.0', '9.0', '9.0']",50.0
WoM Regression says Rogue Citation
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,ROGUE CITATION,0.03,1.0,1.0,0.88,0.51,0.28,0.22536002187414073
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,KAMAWAY,0.16,0.4,0.82,1.0,0.06,0.54,0.12473127831878948
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,LIKENESS,0.15,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.34,0.19,0.11239362986209445
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,POETS PRAISE,0.49,0.77,0.23,0.12,0.65,0.61,0.10680353266676808
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,STYLE OF LIFE,1.0,0.24,0.0,0.57,1.0,0.09,0.0935912555658672
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,LOVERS LEAP,0.78,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.1,1.0,0.08377993537158816
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,WONDROUS LIGHT,0.56,0.38,0.52,0.63,0.07,0.3,0.06982153175706601
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,JOJOS LEGACY,0.0,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.05,0.14,0.054870490086650736
Southwell_19:00_2026-10-08,SILKEN BAY,0.67,0.0,0.24,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.04227472368231135
simon boardman
Mare
Michael231
Gelding
My picks for the race are:
Poets Praise and Lovers Leap
Good luck with yours.
19:00Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Fillies' HandicapSouthwell • Flat • 1m 13y • Standard (AW - Tapeta) • Class 5
CONVERGENCE ALERT — 3 horse(s) with 3+ signals aligning
NEAR-BALANCED • Weight range: 129–140lbs (11lbs spread) • Midpoint: 134.5lbs • Median weight (136lbs) is 1.5lbs from midpoint — no Bowers boost (historically -21.3% ROI unfiltered) • Median OR: 74 (OR ✓ = at/above median)
🏟 Southwell: Left-handed • Favoured draw: Low (STRONG BIAS) • 7-9f — draw moderately important
Left-handed AW Fibresand. Low draws (rail) consistently favoured — early speed at low stalls very important.
Pace Map — Expected Early PositionsHot pace expected
Front Runner
Lovers Leap
67% FR • Stall 5
Kamaway
67% FR • Stall 4
Prominent
Likeness
36% FR • Stall 9
Poets Praise
50% FR • Stall 1
Wondrous Light
50% FR • Stall 2
Versatile
Jojo's Legacy
0% FR • Stall 7
Hold-Up
Rogue Citation
30% FR • Stall 8
Lovers Leap and Kamaway both want to lead — likely to set a strong gallop and tire each other out. Held-up horses could benefit.
Watch: Rogue Citation (Stall 8)
Poets Praise and Lovers Leap
Good luck with yours.
19:00Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Fillies' HandicapSouthwell • Flat • 1m 13y • Standard (AW - Tapeta) • Class 5
CONVERGENCE ALERT — 3 horse(s) with 3+ signals aligning| Horse | Odds | Signals | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaway | 4/1 | strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · RPR improving · C/D winner · trainer 34% w/Front Runners |  NOT BOWERS BUT! |
| Rogue Citation | 3/1 | strongly backed · RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner · SP↓ vs last run |  WATCH |
| Wondrous Light | 9/1  odds≥runners | draw 4/5 · RPR ahead of hcp · C/D winner |  ELIMINATED |
NEAR-BALANCED • Weight range: 129–140lbs (11lbs spread) • Midpoint: 134.5lbs • Median weight (136lbs) is 1.5lbs from midpoint — no Bowers boost (historically -21.3% ROI unfiltered) • Median OR: 74 (OR ✓ = at/above median)🏟 Southwell: Left-handed • Favoured draw: Low (STRONG BIAS) • 7-9f — draw moderately important
Left-handed AW Fibresand. Low draws (rail) consistently favoured — early speed at low stalls very important.
Pace Map — Expected Early PositionsHot pace expectedFront Runner
Lovers Leap
67% FR • Stall 5
Kamaway
67% FR • Stall 4
Prominent
Likeness
36% FR • Stall 9
Poets Praise
50% FR • Stall 1
Wondrous Light
50% FR • Stall 2
Versatile
Jojo's Legacy
0% FR • Stall 7
Hold-Up
Rogue Citation
30% FR • Stall 8
Lovers Leap and Kamaway both want to lead — likely to set a strong gallop and tire each other out. Held-up horses could benefit.
Watch: Rogue Citation (Stall 8)
| # | Horse | Draw | OR | Odds | Wgt | DSLR | Bowers | Pace Profile | Draw Score | Bonuses | KNN | Final Score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lovers Leap Jane Chapple-Hyam / D Egan | 5 | 69 | 6/1 SP 7.0 card: 8/1 | 131 | 26 | #6 | Front Runner 67% FR / 0% HU 7/10 3 runs | — 3/5 Stall 5 |  Backed 9.0→6/1 ✓ SP longer than last run (1.4→7.0) | 3rd last run — placed profile ✓ Beaten fav 3rd last run | Consistent placer RPR 76 vs OR 69 — ahead of hcp ✓ | TS 71 — at/above career best   RaceIQ FSP 107% last run (Newmarket) — finished well above par | RaceIQ FSP trending up +11pts over last 3 runs Master Rating +0 (as expected)🏋 Trainer 33% with Front Runners (48/147)  IV 3.04 (Strong) — middle trips ✓+6.2 | 20% Weak | 12.29 | ELIMINATED bf |
| 4✓ 0✗ | Going ? | Distance ? | Fit ✓ | Form ✓ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 2 | Likeness J Channon / George Bass | 9 | 75 ✓ | 11/2 SP 6.5 card: 5/1 | 137 | 11 |  #2 | Prominent 36% FR / 27% HU 7/10 11 runs | ⚠ 2/5 Stall 9 | Steady at 11/2 3rd last run — placed profile ✓ Distance winner 3rd last run | Won prev run | Consistent placer RPR 88 vs OR 75 — well ahead of hcp | RPR trending up +4pts | TS 68 — at/above career best RaceIQ FSP 105% last run (Ffos Las) — finished well above par Master Rating +0 (as expected) Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ 11 days — ideal freshness Trainer 23% at Southwell (6/26) IV 3.33 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ | middle trips ✓+5.8 | 40% Moderate | 12.02 | CONTENDER D |
| 5✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✓ | Draw ✗ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 3 | Poets Praise R M Beckett / Rhys Clutterbuck | 1 | 75 ✓ | 7/2 SP 4.5 card: 9/4 | 137 | 41 | #1 | Prominent 50% FR / 17% HU 8/10 6 runs | 4/5 Stall 1 | Drifting badly 3.2→7/2 SP longer than last run (1.5→4.5) Distance winner Won last run RPR 6pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ RaceIQ FSP trending down -10pts over last 3 runs Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ Trainer 27% at Southwell (17/64) IV 1.52 (Strong) — medium fields | middle trips ✓ +2.7 | 40% Moderate | 9.6 | CONTENDER D |
| 4✓ 0✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✓ | Draw ✓ | RPR ? | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 4 | Rogue Citation t E Bethell / D Tudhope | 8 | 74 ✓ | 3/1 SP 4.0 card: 5/1 | 136 | 27 | #3 | Hold-Up 30% FR / 60% HU 4/10 10 runs | ⚠ 2/5 Stall 8 | Strongly backed 6.0→3/1 SP shorter than last run (10.0→4.0) ✓ | 3rd last run — placed profile ✓ Course winner 3rd last run RPR 83 vs OR 74 — ahead of hcp ✓ Master Rating +0 (as expected) +4.4 | 0% Poor | 9.57 | WATCH C |
| 4✓ 2✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ✗ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 5 | Kamaway Eve Johnson Houghton / Callum Hutchinson | 4 | 71 | 4/1 SP 5.0 card: 8/1 | 136 | 35 | #5 | Front Runner 67% FR / 0% HU 9/10 3 runs | — 3/5 Stall 4 | Strongly backed 9.0→4/1 SP longer than last run (2.2→5.0) Distance winner RPR 91 vs OR 71 — well ahead of hcp | RPR improving +6pts last 3 runs | RPR 7pts below peak — may be underestimated ✓ RaceIQ FSP 95% last run (Salisbury) — finished below par Master Rating +0 (as expected) Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ 🏋 Trainer 34% with Front Runners (79/230) IV 0.0 (Poor) — middle trips +2.58 | 20% Weak | 9.49 | NOT BOWERS BUT! D |
| 3✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 6 | Wondrous Light J G Portman / Rob Hornby | 2 | 74 ✓ | 9/1 SP 10.0 card: 8/1 | 139 | 22 | #4 | Prominent 50% FR / 14% HU 8/10 14 runs | 4/5 Stall 2 | Drifting 9.0→9/1 SP longer than last run (7.0→10.0) Distance winner RPR 98 vs OR 74 — well ahead of hcp RaceIQ FSP 89% last run (Beverley) — finished below par | RaceIQ FSP trending down -13pts over last 3 runs Master Rating +0 (as expected) Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ Trainer 23% at Southwell (6/26) IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields | middle trips +0.9 | 60% Strong | 7.7 | ELIMINATED D |
| 5✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ✓ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 7 | Jojo's Legacy t1 A Keatley / Mikey Sheehy | 7 | 67 | 10/1 SP 11.0 card: 8/1 | 129 | 158 | #7 | Unknown 0% FR / 0% HU 5/10 No history | ⚠ 2/5 Stall 7 | Drifting 9.0→10/1 158 days — long absence Trainer 23% at Southwell (3/13) +-0.3 | 0% Poor | 4.83 | ELIMINATED |
| 1✓ 2✗ | Going ? | Distance ? | Fit ? | Form ✗ | Draw ✗ | RPR ? | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 8 | Style Of Life t H Bethell / S D Bowen | 6 | 75 ✓ | 33/1 SP 34.0 card: 14/1 | 140 | 16 | #8 | Front Runner 64% FR / 0% HU 7/10 11 runs | — 3/5 Stall 6 | — | — | — |  MARKET REJECTD |
| 3✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ✓ | Form ✗ | Draw ~ | RPR ? | Trainer ✓ | ||||||
| 9 | Silken Bay h Dr R Newland / Jack Doughty | 3 | 71 | 33/1 SP 34.0 card: 25/1 | 133 | 37 | #8 | Front Runner 67% FR / 0% HU 9/10 3 runs | 4/5 Stall 3 | — | — | — | MARKET REJECT CD |
| 3✓ 1✗ | Going ? | Distance ✓ | Fit ? | Form ✗ | Draw ✓ | RPR ✓ | Trainer ? |
I felt POETS PRAISE won with a fair bit in hand at sandown and although up 7lbs the suspicion is he's very much improving, caution needed regarding the form with those behind failing to give much of a boost so probably a poor cl5 for the course and little market support.
Another negative might be ROSSA has gone to bath today despite winning on PP , maybe they like the 2yr old in the 3.50.
POETS PRAISE is still my fancy.
Another negative might be ROSSA has gone to bath today despite winning on PP , maybe they like the 2yr old in the 3.50.
POETS PRAISE is still my fancy.
mlmrob
Sire
Adrian Keatley's record with horses having their debut for him after arriving from another yard over the last two years reads 6-17, 4-9 in 2026. The previous ten years had seen him record 9-77, so it looks like he is being a bit more selective these days.
What is interesting is, those that were trained in Ireland have returned 6-41, but improve to 3-6 over the last two years. The three winners went off favourite but those that were still a maiden have returned 4-7, 2-2 with those previously trained in Ireland.
Jojos Legacy went off second favourite for a Cork handicap in April, the fourth is now rated 95 and the winner and second have also won since, with the winner rated 99 and the second 84.
Off 67, Jojos Legacy could well out run her price though Timeform think she may be a shade too high in the handicap given her overall profile. She does have a Timeform rating of 81 from a Cork maiden a year ago and if she runs to that she will be on the premises.
What is interesting is, those that were trained in Ireland have returned 6-41, but improve to 3-6 over the last two years. The three winners went off favourite but those that were still a maiden have returned 4-7, 2-2 with those previously trained in Ireland.
Jojos Legacy went off second favourite for a Cork handicap in April, the fourth is now rated 95 and the winner and second have also won since, with the winner rated 99 and the second 84.
Off 67, Jojos Legacy could well out run her price though Timeform think she may be a shade too high in the handicap given her overall profile. She does have a Timeform rating of 81 from a Cork maiden a year ago and if she runs to that she will be on the premises.
Paul Brown
Gelding
markfinn
Sire
- Likeness: joint-top on adjusted OR (75 +5lb 3yo allowance = 80), distance winner, and a 12-day DSLR with recent form of 2-1-3. No Southwell run on the card, so the course is unproven.
- Poets Praise: also 80 adjusted, a distance winner who won last time out after only four runs. The 42-day DSLR is over your 28-day line, which is why she is second rather than first.
- Danger, Rogue Citation (6): 79 adjusted, a course winner, and exactly 28 days since her last run. She has no distance flag, so the trip is the question.
- Silken Bay (7): the only CD horse, which counts for extra at Southwell, but her adjusted 76 and recent 0-3-5 leave her behind the top three.
The seasonal filter is neutral for the 3yos and 4yos on the All Weather in October, and Negative for the 6yo Style of Life.
Top two.
No Nuts were harmed in creating this post
MySportsAI
Colt
Fridays Race 19:15 at Kempton
DuckandDive
Mare
Michael231
Gelding
Well done
DuckandDive
dicko14 and
MySportsAI . With the winner and
S
simon boardman with the trifecta.
DuckandDive
dicko14 and
MySportsAI . With the winner and
S
simon boardman with the trifecta.