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Trainer & Jockeys - Only Runner That Day - Is it significant?

just of to work a certain M Johnston from Middleham has sent a horse 201 miles to Newmarket only runner and F Norton rides its
a outsider but the trainer has other entries at Ripon a fav and 3 second fav has the jockey picked right good luck what ever you do
 
No luck yesterday

Scholastic 2:05 Cheltenham
Flower of Scotland 3:50 Cheltenham
Party Planner 5:55 Newcastle
Fieldsman 8:25 Newcastle

Winnersforu
 
Lovely winer @
eeyore
eeyore !! Well done 👏 💪🏻

Only one winner from my Lucky15. Got my stake back 🤣👍 glad you were on


today bangor 12.55 his dream Jonjo O'neill one runner jonjo o'neill jr one ride
6.30 brighton Fred M Johnston sends 293 miles only runner
5.15 nottingham tiger beetle S de sousa top jockey at course has 1 ride for M Stoute
bangor Elixir du gouet V Williams only runner and C deutch rides
win on each ew acc
sunday
Jim Goldie sends Euchen Glen 391 miles to Newbury 1.35
also its interesting R Hannon in the 3.20 has R L moore onboard nugget
3.35 at AYR Mister fogpatches only Irish runner trainer and jockey only one
win on each ew treble
that all folk be lucky what ever you do
 
windsor 15.10 siskany there four trainers with 1 runners in race but W Buick gone to Windsor for 1 ride
pontfract 14.30 musahaba D O'meara got 2 runners but the other 1 unraced
pontfract 14.00 warranty H WhIttington only runner got B Curtis onboard
market rasen 17.30 p bowen only runner and jockey only ride rooster cogburn
hexham 17.05 fly by milan N richards only runner B Hughes rides
good luck what ever you do
TomasZ said:
Well done eeyore eeyore with Nugget and Fogpatches placed 💪🏻
Click to expand...
only placed thats the way it goes
 
Not sure what others think, but I'd say one runner/ride on card is more significant in lower value races. Also, I suspect that if the jockey is booked early for non-obvious connections that can be a big advertisement for the horse's chances. By non-obvious, I mean not for the main yard/owner they ride for.
Certain trainers I think jockey booking can be key even if the horse seems to be out of form; eg: Tony Carroll, (Hollie Doyle booking a big positive for this yard),
 
just had a quick look tomorrow work getting in the way
interesting R Moore rides the other Irish runner in 14.15 chester nicest 11/2 not for A P O'brien in fact none for him
13.45 chester beauzon 6/1 d omeara only runner and jockey only ride
15.15 chester wirko 7/4 c appleby only runner
15.35 newton abbot heross du seuil 11/10 nico de bonville only runner n henderson have another runner at other meeting
19.10 kempton ransom 11/10 m stoute only runner
good luck what every you do
 
hello all all work and no time for anything just home very quick look found this one

3.38 Bangor​

The Manuscript is Jonjo O’Neill’s sole runner of the day and Jonjo O’Neill junior will take the ride. Interestingly, that is also his only ride of the day too. jonjo O'neill's is top trainer at track 7/1​

 
hello all just looked for sat
mrs j harrington send 1 over to musselburgh 16.00 came last on heavy better going and down in class zaffy pride 11/4 only runner and rider too
also mr j bogler and rider only horse in derby 16.30 mac swiney 11/2
good luck what every you do
 
hello all just had time to look
trainer Tristan Davidson has sent three runners to the ayr in 2021 and all three have returned to the winner’s enclosure
has sole runner in pearl of qatar 11/8 5.45 ayr good luck what ever you do
 
ARAZI91 said:
mick mick - thanks for taking the time to read the thread and respond.

Never intended to confuse Mick so apologies.
First off - It's good for a punter to be suspicious and through some of your past postings i have gleaned some new lines of questioning , especially the trainers trying to throw us off these big shiny stats:) It makes sense , especially the gambling yards.
But i'm afraid i have no answers here Mick , i think your under the impression that i actually use this angle - No mate ,the above was intended as a research post only and has nothing to do with any methodology or criteria i use to select my mainly losing bets:) hence i started the post with the "TV / press pundits quote" - it is something i have came across many times , read it in books and heard that "so and so is sending one to Lingfield tonight and it is his only runner" or "Dettori's there for his only ride of the day" especially in the RP comments section and on both racing channels - so in essence a rather basic attempt to determine if it is significant or not. As i stated with the trainers - based on all the data - the average difference in win % was only 0.52 % in favour of a trainer's sole runner against all runners so really for the majority there is nothing in it - but i have found in the past that there is usually something to be gleaned in the extremes. And that is why i posted the top and bottom ends of the table maybe for forum members to discuss further and maybe glean an insight or two. So the above is just a stand alone attempt to prove if there is any worth in a racing myth if you like and drum up some discussion and not in any way an attempt to convince anybody that this is a method or system.
Would i use any of the above solely as a basis for a bet? - Never!
But having seen the data would i maybe look for example at Charles Hill's sole runners on a day differently? - maybe - actually quite a big maybe and hopefully with further input and discussion we could decide if there is any worth in this.
Like yourself Mick i look for "racing reasons" within quite simple data and you have probably seen some of the stuff i track , layoffs , headgear / equipment and trainer moves - the "racing reason" behind that kind of stuff is in the theme of "improvement" - trainers buy new stock to improve their lot and win races , trainers apply equipment to try and improve their stock and win races , trainers rest their stock for future gains down the line. From that i apply the same kind of approach i have applied to this , look at the extremes and take it from there. Strictly as a backer i look more at positives than negatives , and i don't really use negative stats to oppose horses or to go off them , preferring more traditional "form" reasons for that.
BTW I also have done similar research with another old adage / myth - the "Long Distance Traveller" and ill post that up soon in the hope that it drums up some discussion. Once again there are positives and negatives (there has to be!:)) in fact there are trainers who are extremely good , within this area but ill say right now - it is not something that i really use in my betting.....but i might (and others might too) through further discussion and ideas try and incorporate it.

Hope this answers you Mick:)
Click to expand...
Very late on this discussion here....

However, I think it can possibly be profitable to think like a contrarian when considering jockeys with one ride on a card, in some respects.

Ie: if a horse ran badly last time, I would think that to be a bigger positive to the chances of the horse than if it won or ran really well last time
Reasoning being: riding a horse that ran well last time is the obvious thing for a jockey, (particularly a big-name jockey), to do. It would not seemingly be a difficult decision to make when he/she gets offered the ride. However, if the horse ran poorly last time, then there is likely to be a real reason why the jockey is riding it in this race, and that a far better run is therefore likely.
Of course, the above applies more if jockey didn't ride the horse last time and it is not a ride for his retained stable/owner.

Other obvious things for me to look at are the value of the race he is riding in, day of week and time of day, (particularly now that Covid restrictions in UK have eased so much), and how far away the racetrack is from jockey;s base.
For example, Oisin Murphy taking a single ride at a meeting when it is on a Hughie Morrison trained horse, the race in question is worth £4k, the race is being run on a Friday evening at 9.00pm and it is at Carlisle, is likely to be far more significant than if it is on a Quatar Racing owned horse , the race is worth £30k to the winner, is on a Saturday afternoon at 2.30pm and it is at Newbury.
 
hello all football taken over at moment
but just seen A P Obrien send only one to newmarket on saturday mother earth 7/2 sky gives 5 places if you want to play safe
R L moore is on board
 
Long distance traveller
15:15 Sedgefield Kendancer

@
eeyore
eeyore Missing your posting bud. Hope everything is groove with you!

sorry not been posting as life and work keep getting in the way at the moment just no time for anything he ho
just got in and looked at Newbury
12.10 unanswered prayers demoted to 2nd after winning last time out
14.25 Gaelik Coast D Mcain jnr B Hughes only ride
15.35 Eyeofthescorpion P brennan only ride
good luck what ever you do
 
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