Michael231
Gelding
A bronze race for today.
15:15Stephen And Alan Mulley Apprentice HandicapRedcar • Flat • 10f • Good to firm • Class 5
BRONZE FILTER — 7-12f · 9 runners · 4/1 odds — historically 39% win rate, +54% ROI · 1 WARNING
SLIGHTLY UNBALANCED • Weight range: 126–142lbs (16lbs spread) • Midpoint: 134.0lbs • Median weight (137lbs) is 3.0lbs from midpoint — treat Bowers with moderate caution • Median OR: 72 (OR ✓ = at/above median)
🏟 Redcar: Left-handed • Favoured draw: Low • Distance 10f+ — draw influence significantly reduced
Left-handed. Low draws have slight edge in sprints.
Pace Map — Expected Early PositionsHot pace expected
Front Runner
Lucky Hero
100% FR • Stall 6
Diderot
100% FR • Stall 3
Prominent
Kitsune Power
50% FR • Stall 2
Versatile
Optician
0% FR • Stall 5
Flying Fletcher
0% FR • Stall 8
Hold-Up
Leopards Rock
0% FR • Stall 1
Harswell Ruby
0% FR • Stall 7
Lucky Hero and Diderot both want to lead — likely to set a strong gallop and tire each other out. Held-up horses could benefit.
Watch: Leopards Rock (Stall 1), Harswell Ruby (Stall 7)
15:15Stephen And Alan Mulley Apprentice HandicapRedcar • Flat • 10f • Good to firm • Class 5
BRONZE FILTER — 7-12f · 9 runners · 4/1 odds — historically 39% win rate, +54% ROI · 1 WARNING SLIGHTLY UNBALANCED • Weight range: 126–142lbs (16lbs spread) • Midpoint: 134.0lbs • Median weight (137lbs) is 3.0lbs from midpoint — treat Bowers with moderate caution • Median OR: 72 (OR ✓ = at/above median)🏟 Redcar: Left-handed • Favoured draw: Low • Distance 10f+ — draw influence significantly reduced
Left-handed. Low draws have slight edge in sprints.
Pace Map — Expected Early PositionsHot pace expectedFront Runner
Lucky Hero
100% FR • Stall 6
Diderot
100% FR • Stall 3
Prominent
Kitsune Power
50% FR • Stall 2
Versatile
Optician
0% FR • Stall 5
Flying Fletcher
0% FR • Stall 8
Hold-Up
Leopards Rock
0% FR • Stall 1
Harswell Ruby
0% FR • Stall 7
Lucky Hero and Diderot both want to lead — likely to set a strong gallop and tire each other out. Held-up horses could benefit.
Watch: Leopards Rock (Stall 1), Harswell Ruby (Stall 7)
| # | Horse | Draw | OR | Odds | Wgt | DSLR | Bowers | Pace Profile | Draw Score | Bonuses | KNN | Final Score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucky Hero D OMeara / C J Whiteley | 6 | 75 ✓ | 4/1 SP 5.0 card: 6 | 133 | 11 |  #1 | Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 10/10 1 runs | — 3/5 Stall 6 |  Backed 6.0→4/1 ✓ IV 2.85 (Strong)⏱ copes with true pace (1/1 hot races) 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm)  3rd last run Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ 11 days — ideal freshness Course winner 3lb claimWeight up 1lbs  Trainer 14% at Redcar (8/57)+4.36 | 100% Strong | 11.81 | TOP PICK C |
| 2 | Diderot Miss J A Camacho / Tom Kiely-Marshall | 3 | 70 | 9/2 SP 5.5 card: 21 | 137 | 30 |  #6 | Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 10/10 1 runs | — 3/5 Stall 3 | Strongly backed 21.0→9/2  IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields 🌦 Ideal going (Good to firm) ✓ Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ 30 days — within sweet spot Distance winnerWeight up 2lbs Trainer 15% at Redcar (6/41)+2.6 | 40% Moderate | 9.82 | ELIMINATED D |
| 3 | Leopards Rock E Bethell / C Horgan | 1 | 75 ✓ | 6/1 SP 7.0 card: 4.33 | 133 | 20 | #3 | Hold-Up 0% FR / 100% HU 3/10 1 runs | — 3/5 Stall 1 | Drifting badly 4.3→6/1 IV 3.62 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ ⏱ copes with true pace (1/1 hot races) 3rd last run | Consistent placer Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ 20 days — good preparationWeight up 8lbs Trainer 22% at Redcar (7/32)+2.8 | 20% Weak | 7.78 | CONTENDER |
| 4 | Kitsune Power p T D Easterby / Jake Dickson | 2 | 59 | 5/1 SP 6.0 card: 6 | 126 | 15 | #7 | Prominent 50% FR / 50% HU 6/10 2 runs | — 3/5 Stall 2 | Steady at 5/1 IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) Won last run Slight class rise (Cls 6→5) 15 days — good preparation Distance winner 3lb claim Trainer 10% at Redcar (18/178)+2.19 | 0% Poor | 7.5 | ELIMINATED D |
| 5 | Harswell Ruby Roger Fell / Jack Callan | 7 | 73 ✓ | 7/2 SP 4.5 card: 4.5 | 140 | 13 | #4 | Hold-Up 0% FR / 50% HU 3/10 2 runs | — 3/5 Stall 7 | Steady at 7/2 IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields 🌦 Acceptable going (Good to firm) Slight class drop (Cls 4→5) ✓ 13 days — ideal freshness Beaten favWeight up 4lbs Trainer 34% at Redcar (11/32) +2.3 | 0% Poor | 7.22 |  NOT BOWERS BUT!BF |
| 6 | Optician M Herrington / Jack Nicholls | 5 | 75 ✓ | 9/2 SP 5.5 card: 5.5 | 142 | 19 | #2 | Versatile 0% FR / 0% HU 5/10 1 runs | — 3/5 Stall 5 | Steady at 9/2 IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields 🌦 Good going match (Good to firm) Won prev run 19 days — good preparationWeight up 6lbs Trainer 10% at Redcar (1/10)+1.3 | 0% Poor | 6.99 |  WATCH |
| 7 | Flying Fletcher R A Fahey / Warren Fentiman | 8 | 72 ✓ | 11/1 SP 12.0 card: 7.5 | 139 | 22 | #5 | Versatile 0% FR / 0% HU 5/10 1 runs | — 3/5 Stall 8 | Drifting badly 7.5→11/1 IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields ⏱ copes with true pace (1/1 hot races) 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) 22 days — good preparationSame/similar weight +0.6 | 0% Poor | 6.11 | ELIMINATED |
| 8 | Natzor p | t Lizzie Quinlan / William Pyle | 4 | 64 | 40/1 SP 41.0 card: 67 | 131 | 32 | #8 | Unknown 0% FR / 0% HU 5/10 No history | — 3/5 Stall 4 | — | — | — |  MARKET REJECTD |
| 9 | Kisiyra t D Thompson / Rhys Elliott | 9 | 70 | 40/1 SP 41.0 card: 51 | 137 | 55 | #8 | Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 10/10 2 runs | — 3/5 Stall 9 | — |
