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The Fine Form Master Formula

Chesham said:
For instance, A horse winning a selling race would get 5 points and horse placed 6th in a group race beaten 4 lengths would get 0 points. In the unlikely event that the two horses met in a race who would come out on top out of the two.
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I see what you saying there....a 1st in one type of race would obviously be different to a 1st in another race type.

If one was to attempt 'improve' the ratings I think, for starters, we would have to widen the range. Say we used the full version (0-20pts) and widen to 0-100.
The max 5pts for LR would be 0-25.....2LR 26-50......C would be 51-55.....D would be 56-65.....rating and forecast the remainder.

We could add in other attributes within this range (or move ranges) as we see fit, or gauge how strong each attribute should be.

So, for example, if finishing position is deemed more important than CD - finishing position could operate from 0-40 and CD from say 41 to 50 and so on.....

Then we would have to gauge the strength of the LR win, LR 2nd, LR 3rd....etc. (and also, 2LR figures too) based upon the type race previously contested.
Perhaps just using 5 different 'race' types for placings, 5 different previous Course strengths, 5 different Distance strengths.......which would mean placing racecourses into set groups or grades.

I expect the code can easily be written to assess all this (IF, THEN, ELSE), so it's a matter of working out what's to be included, with what allocation of points and the perceived strengths of all the attributes.
 
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retriever said:
I can't believe others, whom I feel are more wiser than me, got involved with this mob. I am almost embarrassed to say that I did....kudos for being open about it.
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One of the hardest betting lessons i learnt long ago was the need to shut your Ego away. Fair dues i practice this and am always ready to talk about my losers and mistakes, if nothing else this kills the dangers of complacency during the times when things are going to plan. !
 
Chesham Chesham. my main interest is the early betting market around 10.00 and comparing runners in races where no more than half the field are in the restricted range being shorter than the true mathematical odds. I don't know how you would compare a 13 rated Fine form with that?
I checked a couple of races at Gulfstream earlier, not Fineform, although I am not keen on American racing using Ladbrokes odds.

18.00 (ATR form verdict is 7 danger 9)
10. 13/8 Trainer Matz in form past 14 days looks OK
7. 11/4
9. 3/1
5. 10/1
11. 10/1 Trainer Avila has some form past 14 days, maybe each-way?

19.39 (ATR form verdict is 1 danger 3)
6. 7/4 Trainer Barboza jnr has some form in the past 14 days?
4. 3/1 Trainer Walder record pst 14 days is better?
3. 9/2
1. 9/2
 
Clive Holt and his interminable phone messages - watch £5 (alot back then) rack up on your phone bill as he reviews his past glories and then get the first fancy of the day - which of course loses! As I mentioned on a previous thread I went for an interview at the Winning Line back in the 90's and they filled me in on some of their marketing tactics. It really was a golden period pre-internet, but with the advent of premium numbers to fleece the unaware.

Oh how easy it all looked as I eagerly awaited his new tome dropping through the post. What he and G. Hall neglected to mention was after you had applied the playschool arithmetic you then implemented the secret ingredient i.e a lifetime of experience. Unfortunately that was not available for £9.99 however much you tinkered with the numbers.
 
Incidentally, I can’t help thinking the original fineform formula which omitted the betting forecast may be of more interest for larger prices – it was certainly where his big winner claims come from. Surely the later one simply points you to the usual suspects at the head of the market like all these point based systems.

Despite my disparaging remarks, I have spent the last few weeks completing my study of the G Hall selections, in particular his final alter-ego letter
“G R, Lincolnshire”.

This has taken considerable time as I am interested in discovering what makes a form figure “reliable”. In this respect I am using his selections to implement areas of research that I have been mulling for some time. There are some very clear connections between odds and class moves and I am not just referring to the last races of the protagonist / winner.

So far I have identified this trait in 90% of the 180 horses I have included in the study - I think this is the definition of "consistent form".

I mention this in reference to what Chesham pointed out as a weakness of the Fineform approach – i.e. you really need to know when a 10 is a 10 and not a 2!
 
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Good post mjay mjay i never felt the need to use the premium phone tipping lines, but do recall the shock of my first phone bill when paying same for the commentary. :eek: As you rightly say the real testing is how these vendors use there own products .........assuming they do. I have been a Raceform user for 45yrs and its interesting to note that on several occasions during this period they have started specific tipping lines all of which failed.
 
It’s too difficult to go into the relationship ie brother in law’s wife’s aunts nephew sort of scenario but I had a sort of contact at Fords in Dagenham & they got freephone numbers for all the big services back in the 80’s & 90’s. Never had Brimardon but had Isiris/Winning Line/ Alex Gorrie etc only did them for small stakes but at least they didn’t fleece us with their bogus stable info on premium rate lines, Thommo was by far the worst but my personal favourite was Keith Elliott’s sports line, had some very good touches on the golf for very small stakes. I like most around the time did buy Nick Mordins books, Mark Cotons book & Clive Holts books. I also subscribed to Odds On magazine & later Racing Ahead magazine together with buying racing dailies & weeklies oh those were the days
 
mjay said:
Incidentally, I can’t help thinking the original fineform formula which omitted the betting forecast may be of more interest for larger prices – it was certainly where his big winner claims come from. Surely the later one simply points you to the usual suspects at the head of the market like all these point based systems.
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I was justing thinking along the same lines. The 14-20 pt (betting forecast and ratings) element should be where you gauge whether it's a value bet or not. And why incorporate ratings into ratings.....defeats the object at this earlier stage.

Probably best left at 0-13 (Position and CD), expand to 0-65 by multiply by 5, and add in other elements to take it to 0-100.

Probably as good a base as any for people (like myself) who haven't tried making their own ratings.
 
tractorboy said:
I agree with retriever retriever in the original book there was a betting diary where Clive went through plenty of races to show how to use the formula to determine if there was a bet or not , and to work out a value price.
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I think the problem was that it was all aftertime examples. Never seen anyone using it on any forum to demonstrate pre race how successful the method is (Was) even when I was having Letters published in The Raceform Handicap book weekly, I did not read any letters from those who were using it.

All I remember Was adverts every week claiming winners using the formula.
 
Chesham said:
I think the problem was that it was all aftertime examples. Never seen anyone using it on any forum to demonstrate pre race how successful the method is (Was) even when I was having Letters published in The Raceform Handicap book weekly, I did not read any letters from those who were using it.

All I remember Was adverts every week claiming winners using the formula.
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After timing at its worst but from very poor memory Fineform had a thing for Halling which I followed as I used to live in Halling dave58 dave58 would know the village
 
mick mick With the premium numbers, punters didn’t care about profit – that caller wanted a winner on that day – if the service was in overall profit had little bearing on their decision to call – they had an overwhelming desire to ring because they had been sold a dream.

When I audit my threads which see me usually despairing at my ineptitude I am often surprised to discover a profit has been turned from a low strike rate – most people stop looking at threads that don’t have daily winners, just like the above phone calls.

That is why services with original noble intent find themselves drifting to shorter priced selections in order to compete with the dream factories.

Like all successful marketing once you are hooked on the fantasy you are then sold the means of realising it. This can be a tipping service or more often these days a monthly subscription to software etc.

Ask many of these betting software gurus if they actually bet then you get a mute response – and why would you when you have 1000+ subscribers paying upwards of £50 a month for your product.

I possess a very nice hand built Spanish guitar but am not, nor ever will be be Andre Segovia –
however he could have got a beautiful tune from a £10 job from Oxfam!
 
I used to buy advertising space as a job in the nineties - just checking current Racing Post rates and adjusting - I reckon a 1/2 page would have cost him about £3000 on a Saturday and a page - £5-7K. That's a lot of books / tips he was selling to cover that outlay.

I remember in one of his books he detailed being on a losing streak and having to sell his sports cars etc - the ability to read the shipping forecast on a premium number and shift the books must have been a dream come true.

Crikey, I can even remember ringing a premium number to listen to races or even get results!!
 
..... you could be forgiven for falling for Brimadon, it looked ever so good and ever so attractive proposition. They were always showing how good it was with results second to none at the time. There must have been thousands falling for the same plan and they were always inviting prospective buyers to go along and visit their offices in Harrogate. I think that the only reason that I did not enrol on the mugs list was the fact that I could not afford to enrol because it was so pricey. It must have meant to be, I am ever so glad that my financial position did not allow me to buy when I hear the stories and look back! ;)
 
Delboy99 Delboy99 congrats your swerve, thinking back i can recall my circumstances which could be seen as bad karma.? I had read a betting Mag feature on the positives of portfolio betting an option i was aware of but had dismissed as not for me. But the author made a very good case and while i was still not prepared to utilize several methods at once i did then buy into the Brimadon spiel and thought just including there selections with my own might prove a decent portfolio compromise, and some insurance against a down draw from my own selections.

I do not feel they where Con merchants as such but just suffered a very poor losing run, which tbf the best services and punters will experience. Anyway expensive lesson learned and move on. All these how to or i did books and subscription services when the truth of it is that most could improve there profit lines for free, by reading what is shared on this forum. :)
 
Absolutely Mick - I have learned more from your good self in the last 18 months than any of these "formulas" I bought into in the past!

There's a brilliant period advert for them in the 1987 form book. All about how their powerful (snigger) computers are the future. In reality I think in the early days they competed against the DGA pro punter software - I have an old Robin Lloyd book where he reviews them both.

Check out their old you tube vids and tick off the points I made above!


The really savvy tipsters used to buy a 4 x 2 or 5 x2 i.e. credit card size advert on the actual form pages of the old Sporting Life, knowing that they would be pinned up on all of the nation's betting shops!
 
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mick mick it was easy to be fooled by brimardon the results were amazing or so they said they advertise on bill boards at race tracks all looked so good. As I say I went to there HO and was not being fooled by the shite they were coming out with funny they had range rovers parked outside "con" make you think it was good. I will always remember there was a fella in there office he had the worst wig I have ever seen. I was lucky I had a mate with me who was not a gambler we got out of the presentation and he said to be me come on Lee what a load of shit and did you see the guy with the bad wig 😆 anyway life's lesson if it seems to good to be true it usually is.
 
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