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The Beauty of "Dobbing"

retriever retriever yes but bear in mind if I place a win bet at 2.0 for £50 and you come along and fancy laying the same horse at 2.0 for £50 then there will be £100 matched at 2.0
 
ArkRoyal said:
In the dim and distant past I did run a very profitable thread using proform in-running stats and after something like 5,000 real time selections discovered that 80% price reduction in running was the sweet spot. Unfortunately I also discovered that the lowest in running price recorded by proform was based on £2 being matched which meant that in the real world a large number of the wins recorded would not have enough cash available to match against. Time form results provided the lowest in running price to £100 being matched which was a more useful point than what Proform provided.
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it looks like this kinda confirms Clive Keeling's original comment about the lay point being at 1.25 odds which I suspect isn't very far from your 80% 'sweetspot'. I think I'll wipe yesterday's results from the spreadsheet, and start today with that 80% offset lay instead. Lets see if I can achieve more than a £2.88 profit by end of the day :D
 
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Dobbing is C**T of away of trying to make cash out of horse Chesham Chesham i also remember the early days of dobbing using patternform did my tatters in big time.

Be very weary indeed all the pre off data doesn't make the horse dob....
 
Just out of interest and curiosity Mr Chesham Chesham ( if you don't mind me asking )….How many strategies do you operate from, and roughly how many bets do you have in, say, a month? Would you say the majority are based on research using HRB directly? Or mainly from the info. in the IS/Blogs?
 
retriever said:
Just out of interest and curiosity Mr Chesham Chesham ( if you don't mind me asking )….How many strategies do you operate from, and roughly how many bets do you have in, say, a month? Would you say the majority are based on research using HRB directly? Or mainly from the info. in the IS/Blogs?
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The Blog Members know all my strategies, which are often intertwined as well as all my Pre Race Selections on the Threads that I Run, since August 14 up to yesterday on the Threads that I run regularly , there have been 20 Pre Race Selections Posted. (No selections today)

All the information that I access is either on the IS ie Class Sheets, including the TBB Column ( TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother figs) davejb davejb Posts his Figs on the Blog as well as the OS

The only Data that appears on the Blog is Horseplayers Data Sheets which appear usually during the AW Season.

All Blog Members post their own various strategies and selections on the Blog and if it is a System bet they alway post the Filters for that System or Trend. Basically everything is revealed and nothing secret kept From each other.

I use a wide range of outside resources including HRB

Can I ask is there a reason for your question.
 
Chesham Chesham Thank you. Only curiosity prompted my question, as I thought it a bit 'outright' for you to state 'dobbing' was not part of your strategy (which I would broaden, as if you were saying, that 'trading' is not part of your strategy).

Mick and Dave have often spoken of their MO on here and, on appearances, seem to be the 'polar opposites' of one another - Form/profiling v Systems.
I was just surmising that your MO was somewhere between the two.

My own betting is neither 'here nor there' at the moment - just fun bets - until I can establish a 'proper' betting bank - recently I went self-employed, so money and time are limited.
So I am just really just in the process of compiling systems and methods from which to operate from.

So, nothing sinister with my question - just looking for inspiration.
 
paulb164 paulb164 I tried a bit of 'Dobbing' yesterday on BA.

I used a feature within HRB to pick selections (ended up being 26 horses being Bank holiday) and used a Dobbing system that allowed the horse selection.
I adjusted the rules to play safe.......in practise mode.....£2 bets to win £1......so I guess it wasn't Double or Bust...….but Half or Bust......Hobbing!!! :rofl:

Out of those 26 bets.....only 5 won (poor day by that particular selection source's standards really)…...two 2nd's & nine 3rd's..
Obviously when they win - I win - the seconds also got matched, and probably, more interesting about 6 or 7 of the nine 3rds.....depends if there is a hot favourite in the race that steams away at the start. Bit difficult to track results in practise mode.

I'll be testing this over the coming days and weeks....going to look to see if a Stop loss at -£1 is warranted or positive to overall results.
Just need to see if I can win more £1's than I lose on a daily basis......and then scale up.
Good luck with your Dobbing system testing......keep at it!!
 
Hi retriever retriever

I use multiple strategies or methods. Quite often the nucleus of an Idea starts on this Forum

One such method is Key Race Data

See https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/horseplayer-speed-figures.2004/post-231717 and scroll forward, you will see plenty of Pre Race examples. Also where a pedigree knowledge can cross over to add to another method. Also combining Speed Ratings and Class Ratings with Key Race Data.

The method has moved on somewhat but everything has a starting point.

I like. To use where I can, Form, Pedigree, Class , Key Race Data , Speed Figs And HRB Research tools to find my bets.

There are areas where if you can spend the time can be rewarding. Claiming Races are a good source of bets now and again. Some Triners are excellent at placing horses in these events. It also gives you a good knowledge of how good they are at Handicapping their own horses.

Good luck with your own quest.
 
If somebody who knew nothing about betting asked me if i understood betfair my answer would be fine or adequate but if the question was from a person who trades with a 40% premium charge on his back i would have to say i've no idea. The technicalities are over my head but i suspect the big lads have a huge advantage with both computer speeds and a wider understanding of how to build bots and such like, the people who build fobt tend not to bet on them.
 
While i was using BF I never attempted any trading and suspect that there is much sense in T tacker above. These full time traders who offer the Instructional how to youtube videos is the real objective to attract new and fresh blood which from there perspective provides additional inexperienced liquidity for them to plunder.

I feel negative about most things BF but perhaps the one plus is that it encourages ever more punters to think that numbers are the be all, and this might give a market edge to those of us who do not.?
 
I'm tempted to call you 'Old School Cynical' Mick - but I know you better than that !! :D

Numbers are everywhere.....in the trees, the flowers, the stars and the heavens, life......the whole universe is one big matrix of numbers.....

And "The answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe and everything is 42."

Cricket has 42 laws......and Elvis Presley died at the age of 42.....what more proof do you need?
 
retriever said:
Mick and Dave have often spoken of their MO on here and, on appearances, seem to be the 'polar opposites' of one another - Form/profiling v Systems.
I was just surmising that your MO was somewhere between the two.
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Not sure about mick mick and myself being polar opposites, but yesterday was certainly an eye opener.
I had two bets, one at 6/4 the other 11/10 (sp). One winner and one loser.

Mick had one bet and it won at 14/1, though as usual he posted it here a day or two in advance and 20 + was freely available.

Chesham also had his customary winning day, as did several others.

I think over the years we've just found
methods that suit our own temperaments so we can be confident that we are using tried and trusted methods. It really is a case of horses for courses, but we are all still learning from each other.
 
Hi retriever retriever i can see you are keen on learning stuff, i second the claimer methods although maybe my approach is a bit different i just use speed and a form ratings without looking at trainers much and they can produce a high percentage of winners.

I can pm you the system if you wish because i have been taken out of the IS now for some reason maybe lack of posting although some other have not posted much recently.
 
OnTheNod said:
can pm you the system if you wish because i have been taken out of the IS now for some reason maybe lack of posting although some other have not posted much recently.
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I would appreciate a look at the system OnTheNod OnTheNod As for 'forum politics'.....I don't know about that....and to be honest 'I don't care'......my moto these days is to 'Stand On One's Own Two Feet'....and do the best you can for yourself.

mick mick Wow!! Well done on that win..... and from the links Chesham Chesham showed me above..... dave58 dave58 I can see he undoubtedly has very few losing days/weeks....

paulb164 paulb164 I know you are probably busy in your new job.....hope it's going well....sorry for sort of taking over your thread :)….hopefully we will be taking Dobbing soon....

I really must catch up with today's orders - see you later guys....
 
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retriever said:
I would appreciate a look at the system OnTheNod OnTheNod As for 'forum politics'.....I don't know about that....and to be honest 'I don't care'......my moto these days is to 'Stand On One's Own Two Feet'....and do the best you can for yourself.
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Hi retriever retriever i like to think of a forum as a friendly place to visit as well, and try and help those who are keen to learn things but also work things out for themselves to an extent as well.

It is not really a system because it uses ratings as well, and one needs to use them before the off and again just before the off. Are you still interested on that bases maybe any good form ratings will do the trick fairly well. I use some of hrb ones which you will need for the system as well, is system 88 in the table and is 45.03 profit to sp and 49.14 bfsp

These are the results for just over two years and just before the off and i use bfsp btw. About double the profit if one uses the ratings inconjunction with the system. I am off to snooker now will read any post when i get back.

Screenshot (2).png
 
retriever said:
paulb164 paulb164 I tried a bit of 'Dobbing' yesterday on BA.

I used a feature within HRB to pick selections (ended up being 26 horses being Bank holiday) and used a Dobbing system that allowed the horse selection.
I adjusted the rules to play safe.......in practise mode.....£2 bets to win £1......so I guess it wasn't Double or Bust...….but Half or Bust......Hobbing!!! :rofl:

Out of those 26 bets.....only 5 won (poor day by that particular selection source's standards really)…...two 2nd's & nine 3rd's..
Obviously when they win - I win - the seconds also got matched, and probably, more interesting about 6 or 7 of the nine 3rds.....depends if there is a hot favourite in the race that steams away at the start. Bit difficult to track results in practise mode.

I'll be testing this over the coming days and weeks....going to look to see if a Stop loss at -£1 is warranted or positive to overall results.
Just need to see if I can win more £1's than I lose on a daily basis......and then scale up.
Good luck with your Dobbing system testing......keep at it!!
Click to expand...
I had intended to post yesterday's results here, but it became apparent (which you only ever find out while watching the automation while it's working) that it wasn't working right. Unfortunately BetAngel doesn't allow you to put an offset lay bet at specific odds (i.e. 1.25 like I wanted) as a bet parameter - instead you can only offset by ticks or %, and then carry that bet through when it goes in-play. When I tried to do it as just a straight 80% offset, I noticed it was putting a 1.01 lay bet on instead ! The only way I managed it was to add new lay rules that kicked in as soon as the race went in-play This allowed me to apply a lay bet of 1.25 if the starting odds on the favourite was over 1.8, and a lay bet of 1.15 if it started under 1.8 (based on the premise that short odds do seem to have a higher success rate).
It was also struggling on occasion to pick the favourite, especially if there were 2 favourites very close to each other at the time of bet placing (very frustrating to see it pick the 2nd favourite to bet on just because it dipped low enough briefly but at the right time, and then watch the other favourite win the race !), so I had to include a small relative odds condition as well (which may stop bets happening in rare circumstances, but at least it should pick favourites only in the future).
I'm happy that it is working properly now (I think)... I have let it loose today on the UK and Irish races while I was at work. Will post another update later on the results. (y)
 
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