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The 2024 Derby and Dosage: Old chestnut or some merit?

T

The Sponsor

Newbie
I have just been looking at the Dosage figures for the top of the entries and was surprised by how few runners appeared to be anywhere near the magic DI 1.0 and CD 0.2 - unless of course I've got those figures wrong.
Does anyone have any thoughts or formed an opinion - even if it's just providing the possibility of ruling some runners out.

DICD

THE EUPHRATES
0.51​
-0.29​
DANCING GEMINI
0.56​
-0.22​
MR HAMPSTEAD
0.66​
-0.06​
DIEGO VELAZQUEZ
0.67​
-0.10​
DEFIANCE IRE
0.68​
-0.12​
VOYAGE
0.70​
-0.14​
ANCIENT WISDOM
0.71​
-0.17​
LOS ANGELES
0.71​
-0.07​
DALLAS STAR
0.73​
-0.08​
DEIRA MILE
0.75​
-0.07​
ILLINOIS
0.75​
-0.05​
AMBIENTE FRIENDLY
0.76​
-0.09​
EUPHORIC
0.76​
-0.14​
PORTLAND
0.80​
-0.08​
KAMBOO
0.85​
-0.03​
CITY OF TROY
0.92​
0.08​
GOD'S WINDOW
0.94​
-0.03​
SAYEDATY SADATY
1.21​
0.25​
BELLUM JUSTUM
1.22​
0.20​
PADESHA
1.22​
0.20​
MACDUFF
1.55​
0.29​
 
Hi Sponsor,

I don’t know how often this dosage stuff works for predicting winners but last year I done a little exercise on the Bloodlines of the previous 10 Derby winners, which I would like to share.

I came up with the following table.

Year, Derby Winner - Sire - Dam - Dams Sire - Sires Sire.
2022 Desert Crown – Nathaniel – Desert Berry – Green Desert - Galileo
2021 Adayar – Frankel Anna Salai – Dubawi - Galileo
2020 Serpentine – Galileo – Remember When – Danehill Dancer – Sadler’s Wells
2019 Anthony Van Dyck - Galileo – Believe’N’Succeed – Exceed And Excel – Sadler’s Wells
2018 Masar – New Approach – Khawlah – Cape Cross - Galileo
2017 Wings Of Eagles – Pour Moi – Ysoldina – Kendor - Montjeu
2016 Harzand – Sea The Stars – Hazariya – Xaar – Cape Cross
2015 Golden Horn – Cape Cross – Fleche D’Or – Dubai Destination – Green Desert
2014 Australia – Galileo – Ouija Board – Cape Cross – Sadler’s Wells
2013 Ruler Of The World - Galileo – Love Me True – Kingmambo – Sadler’s Wells

As you can see 7 of the 10 winners had either Galileo as his sire or Galileo as his Sire’s Sire.
But before you get excited 9 of the 14 runners last year had the same trend.

Many people believe that the staying power comes from the Dam but the statistics show different.
First look at what the Sire won.

Nathaniel – G1 1m4f
Frankel - Champion Stakes 1m2f
Galileo – Derby
New Approach – Champion Stakes 1m2f
Pour Moi – Derby
Sea The Stars – Derby
Cape Cross – G1 Lockinge 1m

For the Dam, only Ouija Board, who won the Oaks and Remember When, who finished 3rd in the Oaks and was placed 2nd, seem to have been stayers.

The Dam’s Sire is very interesting. We have;

Dubawi won G1 1m.
Danehill Dancer won G1 7f (2-y-o).
Exceed And Excel won G1 7f in Australia.
Cape Cross won G1 Lockinge 1m.
Kendor won French 2000 Guineas.
Xaar won G1 Dewhurst 7f (2-y-o).
Dubai Destination won G1 1m.
Kingmambo won G1 1m.

Last year Auguste Rodin bucked the trend.

2023 Auguste Rodin – Deep Impact – Rhododendron – Galileo – Sunday Silence

Note Galileo appeared as the Dam’s Sire.
Deep Impact won G1 2m Japan.
Rhododendron won G1 1m2f.
And of course, Galileo won the Derby.

So, staying power all round, if you ignore what I said about statistics showing different.

This year will be the last of Galileo’s sons to appear in the Derby.

Illinois and Mr Hampstead.
 
Look at Urban Sea an Arc Winner , the Dam of Galileo and also produced Sea The Stars (Two Derby Winners )

IMG_1062.jpeg
 
If you look at Last Years winner the Dam Sire was Galileo but the Dam of Galileo was Urban Sea and Urban Seas Whose X Chromosome is running through Galileo to Rhododendron. Galileo can only pass the X Chromosome to the Dam

IMG_1067.jpeg
 
Really interesting discussion. Thanks all. So that appears to be a No to Dosage, and - as the RP suggested the other day - a Derby winner in the 1st and second generations is a bonus. Fair summary?
 
LTO Paths To The Derby

IMG_1078.jpeg
Avoid any runner with a LTO Odd/Runners Ratio greater than 1, Only one winner from 26 races and that was Kris Kin who won in 2003 , but Kris Kin had won the 4 runner runner Dee Stakes, which wa some of the LTO Path Races

The performance of Past Derby Runners who had a LTO Odds/Runners Ratio greater than 1

IMG_1076.jpeg
 
The Sponsor said:
Really interesting discussion. Thanks all. So that appears to be a No to Dosage, and - as the RP suggested the other day - a Derby winner in the 1st and second generations is a bonus. Fair summary?
Click to expand...

Hi Sponsor,

I personally am not saying that Dosage doesn’t work. It is just something I haven’t looked into.

Returning to the breeding stats I gave previously and applying it to this Saturday’s Derby I can say this. According to those stats the following WILL NOT STAY.

Ambient Friendly, Bellum Justum, Deira Mile, Euphoric and Macduff.

So, all the rest, Ancient Wisdom, City Of Troy, Dallas Star, Dancing Gemini, God’s Window, Kamboo, Los Angeles, Mr Hampstead, Sayedaty Sadaty, Tabletalk and Voyage, should stay. But you can take out Los Angeles because the Dam’s Sire only won a Group 2, not a Group 1.

Fat lot of help I know, but it will be interesting to see if the “will not stay” list holds true.
 
well ambiente friendly does stay as proved in lingfield trial bounding away at finish in good time only worry is does it stay on soft ground.
 
City Of Troy has future entries of 1m and 10f but does have A couple 12f ones as well

Los Angeles has a 1m 6f. 12F and 10f

According to TF the pace is likely to be extreme and stamina will be at a premium
 
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