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A good day on Monday with some each-way money in the afternoon and Nateeja an impressive winner last night.

Just one for this afternoon, we will probably have evening bets released before 5.30pm.

2.00 Beverley Fuel Injection 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Ladbrokes. Coral, guaranteed)

Speculative at best, but there are firm reasons to believe Fuel Injection is overpriced as the outsider of this eight runner field. He was sent off just 10/1 for a good renewal of the Brockelsby, and showed up really well, at one point almost hitting the lead, before fading badly in the final furlong. He is from a family of fast ground lovers, and his sire has a better win percentage with runners on fast turf than soft. His run second time out at Redcar was poor, but he looked really green and unsure of how to use his stride correctly. This could be third run for a handicap mark, but it is interesting he is entered in a much stronger maiden at Ripon on Saturday and retains an entry in a classy looking sales race at the Ebor meeting in August. The stable's horses have been running better of late than at any point this year, 0/11 for July is probably deceptive from a small sample size - they had five winners from forty runners in June, as many as they'd had for the rest of the year put together. They are not noted for two year olds, and a 0-38 record with juveniles at this track over the last five seasons is offputting. However, this is a very speedily bred horse who clearly showed something at home before his Brockesby debut. It was a race that worked out well, and the likes of Picks Pinta had a break afterwards and came out to win a maiden. If the break has brought him on mentally and physically, he can outrun this 33/1 quote. The dead eight makes it a good each-way bet and stall three is a favourable draw.
 
Missed 1 last nite/ it lost .....


It's hard to believe we didn't get a return from Between The Lines yesterday having called the race almost perfectly. He was denied a place in a photo, the first four well clear.

Two for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet released before 5.30pm.

4.00 Lingfield Much Promise 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed)

The trendy thing these days is not to support unraced horses in maidens, which has led in recent years to unraced horses actually being overpriced on occasion. We've used this to our advantage in recent weeks, with notable success having relied on pedigree analysis, sales details, and trainer patterns. These two Lingfield maidens stuck out for me this afternoon because I'm not over keen on any of those with experience and there are one or two interesting newcomers to consider. Champion trainer John Gosden's string have been slower to come to hand this year, but his stable have hit form in no uncertain terms in recent weeks and I find it interesting he sends two juvenile fillies to Lingfield with the stable jockey riding both, his only two engagements of the afternoon. Much Promise is really well bred as a half sister to Oaks winner Talent among others. Her sprint sire ensures there is enough speed in her pedigree that six furlongs on debut should be with in her compass in terms of speed, and I think she is overpriced in a race where I'd be against the principals Hoku and Along Again.

4.30 Lingfield Dorothy B 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Dorothy B is by a sire who gets plenty of sprinters in the Southern Hemisphere, Fastnet Rock. She cost 130,000GNS as a yearling and is entered in arguably the weaker of the two races here. Drawn well on debut, I don't think she will need to be that good to win this. Her dam's side is more of a middle distance influence, but her trainer knows the time of day and I would suggest she may have showed up well in fast work at home. She makes plenty of appeal and we'll have a moderate interest.
 
1pt each-way double on today's selections @ 5/1, 5/1 generally (use a bookmaker offering guaranteed odds in multiples)

3.50 Haydock Imperial Legend 4pts win @ 11/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 5/1 generally guaranteed)

The crucial thing here is the booking of the excellent Paul Mulrennan. This race is loaded up with pace, even for a five furlong contest, and Imperial Legend has been known to go off like the clappers and get caught late on. More patient tactics paid real dividends with an easy victory last time, and the booking of Mulrennan, known for his rides on hold up sprinters such as Mass Rally, looks a real positive. The selection is drawn next door to Red Baron and Six Wives, and you'd have to think he'll get a good tow into the race. You'd think Dandy Nicholls will have looked at the race and will ask his jockey to sit off the leaders and come late. The selection looks progressive and had Red Baron cooked when they met a couple of runs back, only to come back late having done too much too soon. I reckon he gets revenge this afternoon.

4.35 Newbury Ruscello 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Many of these have question marks about them. the favourite's finishing efforts have looked weak, Lord Of The Shadows doesn't win often, Opera Box looks well handicapped but her win at Lingfield hasn't worked out and she has looked temperamental (has flashed tail more than once). There isn't much pace in the race, and I would suggest the usually astute William Buick will sit close to the lead or indeed on it, with Opera Box looking likely to make it. The selection's handicap mark suggests he is better on polytrack but he is one of only a few of these to have won on a turning track on good to firm ground. His run at Kempton last time in a much better race was highly encouraging, and connections are on record as saying he may have needed the run more than they thought. He should be cherry ripe today, and a mark of OR88 looks like one he should overcome. The progeny of his sire Cape Cross have a marked preference for fast ground on turf and I expect him to take the beating. We'll put today's selections into an each-way double as well as supporting both to win.
 
A touch of second and third-itis has struck in recent days, most of the selections are running above market expectations so I'm not concerned.

One bet for this evening.

7.55 Newmarket Sans Loi 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed)

Some good action this evening, notably the Scottish Stweards Cup, but much of the racing looks best watched. An exception is this sprint at Newmarket, where I find it interesting Brian Ellison, who has returned to form just lately, sends this ex-Alan McCabe inmate for his first run since early June when the stable were out of form. Shane Kelly knows the horse well, and takes the trouble to make the journey from Nottingham for the one ride. The selection has some good form at Newmarket as a two and three year old, and showed one glimpse of a revival at Ripon earlier this year. He then went off the boil for two runs but was put away suggesting there may have been some kind of problem. I find it interesting connections send him here, as a horse whose two victories came on good to firm ground. He boasts Newmarket (Rowley) form behind Es Que Love and off a mark of OR79, he is attractively handicapped. Fitness may be an issue, as may his draw in stall 12, but this does not look an insurmountable task and at 25/1 he looks decent value.
 
Just one race of interest this afternoon, evening bets will follow before 5.30pm.

3.50 Newbury

Lexington Rose 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)
Biography 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, Coral, guaranteed)

An interesting renewal and a race I'm keen to play in given our success with juveniles this season so far. Lexington Rose is a point and shoot job here, she was deeply impressive last time out when making all at Musselburgh. She is well weighted and looks a fast filly who will appreciate the prevailing ground conditions. I would have made her shorter on the back of that last win.

The potential fly in the ointment is the chance of a pace burn up between Meritocracy, Lexington Rose and Orton Park, who are all drawn close to each other. Wily Richard Hughes is drawn close by in stall 23 on the Hannon second string Biography, who looks for all the world as though hold up tactics will improve him. Hughes is on record in this morning's Racing Post as saying he prefers Lilbourne Lass, thinking this trip is sharp enough for Biography, but he might have come up trumps with a good tow into the race given his potential run style. Expect Hughes to switch the horse off early doors and see if the others come back to him. He is no 20/1 shot on form and I must say I like his chances of running a place at least.
 
Two races of interest for Sunday.

4.10 Redcar Escape To Glory 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed)

An interesting sprint. There isn't much pace on, but I'd expect Orbit The Moon, a stablemate of the selection, to make the running. Escape To Glory looks very well handicapped no off OR81 for his new trainer Michael Dods. Dods has a track record of stepping horses from other stables back in trip and making decent sprinters out of them, Mass Rally being the most recent example. Escape To Glory was stepped back to five furlongs at Carlisle last time out, and a first time tongue tie applied. He wasn't given anything like a hard time having been well outpaced, but he ran on at the finish over a trip which definitely does not suit him. To put it into context, that race was run in a time of just over a minute; he can expect to race for around eleven seconds more this afternoon over Redcar's six furlongs. His last run was the first real sign of life since joining Dods, in terms of the fact that he actually saw his race out, and it may be that the tongue tie, which is retained, did its job. He should take a tow into this race from his stablemate, and I think he is overpriced at the odds up against horses who don't find winning easy, with the exception of Al Khan who is progressive but plenty short enough at 7/2.

4.45 Curragh

Joe Eile 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Bedloe's Island 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) AND 1pt win @ Betfair SP.

A really good renewal of this handicap, and it's nice to see the big field it deserves. Joe Eile travelled best of all in the Paddy Power handicap last time out, and he makes most appeal of the low drawn horses for a trainer whose horses are flying. He should get a decent tow into the race, but it is anyone's guess whether the low drawn horses will stay far side as they probably should - jockeys are impossible to predict. On recent form alone, he is too big a price and looks worthy of support.

Bedloe's Island is the O'Meara second string. He has improved this season for his new trainer and his penultimate run in a big field handicap at York puts him in with a shout here. He was not well drawn that day and did well in my view to finish as close up as he did. He is drawn in stall 18 and should get a good tow into the race from Whozthecat and friends. He possesses the best topspeed figure in this line up and I'm happy to forgive his Beverley run, turning tracks are not his thing. A first time visor is applied, Chris Hayes is booked to ride, and he is too big a price at anything around 20/1 and up.
 
Just one bet for Monday.

7.20 Windsor Strategic Strike 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 11/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, BruceBetting.com, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

Paul Cole's has his string in the best form they've been in for years, and a chance is taken on a tongue tie eliciting improvement from Strategic Strike this evening. He looked slowly progressive having won his maiden, but three consecutive runs between June and July produced nothing. However, the selection shaped better than the finishing result implied at Windsor on his penultimate run, showing a liking for fast ground and leading before weakening tamely. It is fairly apparent there are breathing difficulties hampering him, and the booking of a claiming jockey, the application of cheekpieces, and a 40/1 SP told it's own story at Lingfield last time. It might have been a wise move, because the handicapper has dropped him 5lb as a result and a mark of OR65 looks one he is already better than. A tongue tie is applied and you'd have to think he has had some sort of soft pallete procedure done in the three weeks he has been off in order to sort the breeding issue. This looks a good piece of placement and the booking of the excellent Jim Crowley, who has a 14% strike rate at the track, looks a positive. Paul Cole's three year olds also have a 14% strike rate at Windsor and the selection looks too big at anything in double figures.
 
One bet for this evening.

8.35 Ffos Las Idle Curiosity 2pts each-way AND 4pts win @ 8/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill, guaranteed, 15/2 VC Bet, Coral, guaranteed).

This is an absolute donkey derby, with the favourite Imperial Legend 0/19 over the course of his career and many of these looking unlikely ever to pick up a race. Idle Curiosity to me is a standout here, although she does come with potential negatives which have to be taken into account. She has at least won a race, at Kempton in early April, and there have been signs in her recent runs that there may be improvement in her over this six furlong trip. Her effort in winning at Kempton was a fair one, but it is noticeable that despite travelling well through the race, she doesn't really quicken on the surface. Her finishing effort over seven furlongs in all her recent starts hasn't been strong, but she pulled for her head on almost every occasion and there is a real sense from both her pedigree and her run style that six furlongs might bring about further improvement. Connections tried her over the trip at Lingfield last time out, but she finished last - this is easily explained, however, by the pace bias Lingfield's all weather track is currently showing. The kickback there is quite unbelievable at the moment and if you're not out in front, you're probably not winning. Idle Curiosity started well and travelled well to a point, but got absolutely lashed with sand and was quite clearly resenting the experience, eventually allowed to come home in her own time. Her two best runs have come when turned out relatively quickly after one recent run, and they are the circumstances under which she lines up this evening. This is only her second time racing on turf, but I find it interesting the dam has thrown six siblings, with twenty four wins between them and only one of those on the all weather. It is hard to know for certain how significant that is, but it can't go down as a negative and looking at her finishing efforts on the all weather, I think there may be improvement for the surface too.

The negatives are the stable form, they have had a good year in general but are 0-9 in July. It is not a big enough sample to put me off. Also, we're making a series of educated guesses regarding the potential improvement. The important thing here is the price - if she does improve for the race conditions, I make her an awful lot shorter than an 8/1 shot in this company. The stable send her on quite a journey this evening to a track they rarely visit, but they do have a 1/5 20% strike rate there in recent years and seem to pick and choose their visits. The booking of a jockey who could not be in better form and is improving all the time is the icing on the cake, and I think at the prices we have to have a decent chunk on. We'll stake it so we lose very little in the event of her running a place, maximising our return if she wins.
 
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