COLONEL MAK 4.10 HAMILTON
Colonel Mak ran no sort of race in Silver Cup on Saturday, finishing last of those drawn in single figures. That was very disappointing so it is interesting to see he has stayed in Scotland to take up this engagement. He was previously second to Secret Look at Newmarket beaten 0.5ls giving the 3yo 9lbs, he is 7lbs better off today. The fourth and the sixth have subsequently won. Before that Colonel Mak won a 0-90 at Pontefract, making all. He is 3-5 at Hamilton.
Hopes N Dreams is 5-6 at Hamilton but she has never placed in a race where the highest rated horse has had an official rating of 90 or more, 0-6. She has never placed in a race with average OR of 84 or higher, 0-4, and she is 8lbs higher than her win last time and 14lbs higher than the start of the season.
Secret Look shouldn’t beat Colonel Mak on these terms and all of his wins have come after a break of a month or more. He is 0-6 when returning sooner.
El Manati has shown nothing in her two runs this season and she may well have not trained on. Her third to Bungle Inthejungle and Garswood in the Cornwallis last year is the best form on offer but she hasn’t placed in two runs on good to soft and soft. James Tate is 4-13 with horses wearing first time cheekpieces.
Baileys Jubilee was third in the Cheveley Park last season but it appears, in hindsight, to have been poor renewal with just 3 winners coming out of the race from 56 races. She has run four times season and unplaced in them all and she was last of four in a similar race to this last time. She is 0-5 over 6f and was unplaced on her only run on good to soft.
Bix has to find 40lbs improvement to get anywhere near this.
Conclusion: The two front runners, Hopes N Dreams and Colonel Mak should dominate this. Hopes N Dreams has to improve again to win. Colonel Mak has to give weight away. He is a three time winner here and is 4-7 in fields of 7 or less runners. In fields of 7 or less runners over this course and distance, he is 3-3. He could make all or even just stalk Hopes N Dreams. Either way, he looks the one to beat.
JUVENAL 4.30 LEICESTER
Juvenal represents a yard that is 4-5 in this race and three of those winners were the same as Juvenal, winless in the current season. He is the best horse in the race and the race should be run to suit. He run as well as could be expected over 7f last time and the step up to 10f will suit. He has dropped 9lbs in the handicap and this is his easiest assignment to date.
Mandy The Nag looks the most likely danger but she is likely to get taken on for the lead here. She has yet to place in 6 races beyond a mile and is unplaced twice from two runs on good or softer. She is 0-3 going right handed. She is by Proud Citizen, his progeny 1-30 over 10f, she may not stay.
Voice From Above is rated 12lbs inferior to Juvenal but just receives 4lbs. She is 0-8 over 9f-10f though she has a 1l second over this course and distance in a class 6 handicap off 60.
Bling King has only won on good to firm and over 6f. He is 0-10 over distances 7f-10f. Rated in the 90s as a juvenile, he had the whole of 2012 in France without much success. He is dropping in the weights and Jordan Nason’s claim gives him a chance though Geoff Harker is 1-41 since July.
Thereabouts has had a summer break and though 0-15 overall, all his best form has come on the sand. Yet to place on turf, he has never placed when returning after a break of two weeks or more. He is 9lbs worse off with Juvenal than he would be in a handicap.
Stag Hill is 8lbs worse off with Juvenal and he is 2-32 overall. He doesn’t usually run on stiff tracks and in his two outings on them he has been unplaced. He is 0-5 on undulating tracks. Joey Haynes is 2-4 on the gelding.
Suspension is rated 51 and is going to have to improve somewhat to take this. She is yet to win in ten outings and both her placed runs have come on left handed tracks. 0-5 going right handed. Morrison is 4-7 in claimers at Leicester.
Inigo Montoya’s nearest encounter with winning was an 11l 7th of 8th. This is just his fifth race but he looks very ordinary. McCabe is 1-46 stretching back to August and is on a losing run of 31.
Thecornishwren is yet to place in eight outings. Her best form is when beaten 14ls on her racecourse debut a year ago.
Conclusion: Richard Hannon has farmed this race over the years and Juvenal looks to have a lot in his favour today. Mandy The Nag and the free running Suspension should set the pace and with Inigo Montoya and Thereabouts liking to race prominently, Juvenal should have something to aim at. If he repeats his fifth to Ascription off 84 in July he will win this doing handstands. Even if he doesn’t, he should still take this comfortably.
