Statting Island
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mlmrob
Sire
Cheers Keith
OLNEY LASS 5.20 CHEPSTOW
This may well be the last time Olney Lass will be able to run in a 0-60 for a while. She left a similar field in her wake off this mark last week in an apprentice race and off the same mark she has to be supported. All her wins have come in class 6 but her record over 7f in class 6 reads 5-8. She loves this track, won here a year ago, and has spent the summer running in a better grade. Just the two runs in class 6 over 7f this season and she has won both. She has her ideal conditions and is 4-5 in September.
Viennese Verse is a four race maiden who showed his best form in a 0-55 at Southwell last time. This is tougher and off the same mark he may struggle against his elders. He was in front rank last time and that is not ideal today with two trail blazers in the field. Henry Candy is currently 1-18 with the winner a long odds on shot. He is 0-32 in handicaps at Chepstow.
Monsieur Pontaven is 3-44 overall and 0-14 on good or slower ground. He is 0-6 on undulating tracks. He finds 7f too short for him these days and needs 8f on polytrack to show his best form. It is three years since he won turf, 0-18 since.
Dancing Welcome made all on his last visit here when winning a 0-55. However, he is 0-13 with jockeys claiming 5lbs or 7lbs and 1-25 with any claiming jockey on board.
Two No Bids won the stands side race last time in a 0-60 when second to Pearl Queen. That was his first sign of form on turf. He remains 0-7 on the grass but the hint last time suggested he could win one of these. That form was on good to firm and he has never placed in four runs on good ground.
Loraine is a ten race maiden and is 1lb worse off for finishing 4ls behind Olney Lass last time. She will do well to turn the tables.
Compton Prince is a 14 race maiden. He was third on his racecourse debut at Wolverhampton and looks to have lost interest since. His third in a maiden handicap off 65 over this track would suggest he would have a chance off 58. He probably will pick a race up this winter.
Cheers Big Ears is an 18 race maiden who is 0-9 over 7f and 0-5 at Chepstow. However, his one place was over this course and distance off a mark 46 and he is modest. Richard Price is 0-27 since July.
George Benjamin won over this course and distance in June of 2012 off a mark of 73 when with Milton Bradley. He moved to Chris Kellett later that month and his mark has dropped from 79 to 53. The closest he has got to a win this season on turf is a 7l 7th of 17. Kellett has saddled one winner from his last 100 runners, that was back in March at Southwell and his last winner on grass was in 2008, 0-63 since.
Seraphiel is yet to place in six outings and get within 9ls of the winner. Chris Down is 2-70 on the flat turf with his last win in 2010.
Conclusion: Lydia Pearce could be accused of hand picking this opposition for Olney Lass. There are some right dodge pots in the field. Olney Lass prefers to be held up but she is pretty adaptable regarding tactics. Dancing Welcome and Two No Bids should make the running with Viennese Verse and that should set it up for her. She has perfect conditions and she should take some beating in this field.
OLNEY LASS 5.20 CHEPSTOW
This may well be the last time Olney Lass will be able to run in a 0-60 for a while. She left a similar field in her wake off this mark last week in an apprentice race and off the same mark she has to be supported. All her wins have come in class 6 but her record over 7f in class 6 reads 5-8. She loves this track, won here a year ago, and has spent the summer running in a better grade. Just the two runs in class 6 over 7f this season and she has won both. She has her ideal conditions and is 4-5 in September.
Viennese Verse is a four race maiden who showed his best form in a 0-55 at Southwell last time. This is tougher and off the same mark he may struggle against his elders. He was in front rank last time and that is not ideal today with two trail blazers in the field. Henry Candy is currently 1-18 with the winner a long odds on shot. He is 0-32 in handicaps at Chepstow.
Monsieur Pontaven is 3-44 overall and 0-14 on good or slower ground. He is 0-6 on undulating tracks. He finds 7f too short for him these days and needs 8f on polytrack to show his best form. It is three years since he won turf, 0-18 since.
Dancing Welcome made all on his last visit here when winning a 0-55. However, he is 0-13 with jockeys claiming 5lbs or 7lbs and 1-25 with any claiming jockey on board.
Two No Bids won the stands side race last time in a 0-60 when second to Pearl Queen. That was his first sign of form on turf. He remains 0-7 on the grass but the hint last time suggested he could win one of these. That form was on good to firm and he has never placed in four runs on good ground.
Loraine is a ten race maiden and is 1lb worse off for finishing 4ls behind Olney Lass last time. She will do well to turn the tables.
Compton Prince is a 14 race maiden. He was third on his racecourse debut at Wolverhampton and looks to have lost interest since. His third in a maiden handicap off 65 over this track would suggest he would have a chance off 58. He probably will pick a race up this winter.
Cheers Big Ears is an 18 race maiden who is 0-9 over 7f and 0-5 at Chepstow. However, his one place was over this course and distance off a mark 46 and he is modest. Richard Price is 0-27 since July.
George Benjamin won over this course and distance in June of 2012 off a mark of 73 when with Milton Bradley. He moved to Chris Kellett later that month and his mark has dropped from 79 to 53. The closest he has got to a win this season on turf is a 7l 7th of 17. Kellett has saddled one winner from his last 100 runners, that was back in March at Southwell and his last winner on grass was in 2008, 0-63 since.
Seraphiel is yet to place in six outings and get within 9ls of the winner. Chris Down is 2-70 on the flat turf with his last win in 2010.
Conclusion: Lydia Pearce could be accused of hand picking this opposition for Olney Lass. There are some right dodge pots in the field. Olney Lass prefers to be held up but she is pretty adaptable regarding tactics. Dancing Welcome and Two No Bids should make the running with Viennese Verse and that should set it up for her. She has perfect conditions and she should take some beating in this field.
) but thought I would post my thanks for the effort you put in on the forum Rob as well
mlmrob
Sire
ST LEGER DOSAGE
The dosage Index of the last 16 winners of the St Leger reads, 1.05, 0.68, 1.77, 1.0, 0.76, 1.34, 1.0,1.0, 2.11, 1.05, 1.0, 0.77, 0.83, 1.07, 0.92, 1.0.
So apart from Arctic Cosmos three years ago, Lucarno in 2007 and Rule Of Law in 2004, you are looking for a horse with an index of 1.10 or less.
Excess Knowledge 0.49
Libertarian 0.65
Galileo Rock 0.78
Cap O Rushes 0.87
Talent 0.9
Leading Light 0.96
Foundry 1.0
These are the seven with DIs less than 1.1 this year.
In the last 16 years only two horses have had a Centre Of Distribution figure above 0.2.
That knocks out just Foundry.
So were left with 6 to consider through Dosage.
The last 16 winners of the Leger had finished in the first four on their most recent run.
Out go Cap O Rushes, Libertarian and Talent.
14 of the last 16 winners ran in the Gordon Stakes or the Great Voltigeur.
Only one left and that is Excess Knowledge.
Foundry,Cap O Rushes and Secret Number all run in the Voltigeur but have been eliminated through their Dosage figures.
In the last six years, John Gosden has saddled runners in four St Leger’s and won three.
The dosage Index of the last 16 winners of the St Leger reads, 1.05, 0.68, 1.77, 1.0, 0.76, 1.34, 1.0,1.0, 2.11, 1.05, 1.0, 0.77, 0.83, 1.07, 0.92, 1.0.
So apart from Arctic Cosmos three years ago, Lucarno in 2007 and Rule Of Law in 2004, you are looking for a horse with an index of 1.10 or less.
Excess Knowledge 0.49
Libertarian 0.65
Galileo Rock 0.78
Cap O Rushes 0.87
Talent 0.9
Leading Light 0.96
Foundry 1.0
These are the seven with DIs less than 1.1 this year.
In the last 16 years only two horses have had a Centre Of Distribution figure above 0.2.
That knocks out just Foundry.
So were left with 6 to consider through Dosage.
The last 16 winners of the Leger had finished in the first four on their most recent run.
Out go Cap O Rushes, Libertarian and Talent.
14 of the last 16 winners ran in the Gordon Stakes or the Great Voltigeur.
Only one left and that is Excess Knowledge.
Foundry,Cap O Rushes and Secret Number all run in the Voltigeur but have been eliminated through their Dosage figures.
In the last six years, John Gosden has saddled runners in four St Leger’s and won three.
mlmrob
Sire
WHITEFALL 2.30 LINGFIELD
Whitefall has been running well on soft ground and this drop back to 10f after running well in a 0-70 over 12f looks an ideal opportunity. She led at the two furlong pole that day and just gave best inside the final furlong. Before that she had run two races in two days in better races than this. She was third to Unison in 0-65 which was good form considering the winner was dropping down from 0-75. She then made her way to Chepstow and got off the mark in another 0-65 where she just had to be driven out to win comfortably. That form has been franked with the fifth winning a hurdle race and placing again on the flat and the sixth winning a 0-60. She has her ideal conditions.
Ana Shababiya looks the main danger. She raced keenly in a 0-60 last time, leading and clear at 5f out; she hung on grimly in the closing stages. She is in effect up 8lbs here as Thomas Brown had taken a handy 3lbs off. That was her first sign of form and the underfoot conditions are very different today. She is a half sister to Be Ready and by Teofilio so the ground shouldn’t present problems.
Sutton Sid is 0-7, never placed, on turf. He hasn’t shown much for Chris Gordon and both his all weather wins were in sellers.
Hawaiian Dream has had 7 races and just placed in one. Her best form is on the all weather and has yet to encounter soft ground. This is her easiest assignment to date and the booking of Hughes takes the eye, 2-12 for the yard. Teal is 0-6 in 3yo handicaps on turf here.
Lucilla has never been in the frame in six outings and has shown nothing in three runs for Stuart Williams. This distance is right on the limit for the progeny of Holy Roman Emperor.
Prairie Prince has had three runs in maidens. Upped to 13f last time he finished 19ls behind the winner. That followed defeats over 7f of 20ls and 22ls. He may well improve but it would be a leap of faith to support him.
East Texas Red has one win from 16 races. He was backed from 25/1 into 5/1 in July in a 0-60 off 60. He ran reasonably well that day on firm ground. He is now 0-10 for Mick Quinn who is 1-70 in 2013 and 1-83 stretching back to November of last year.
Conclusion: Ana Shababiya should get an easy time out in front but she is headstrong and the 8lbs penalty may well anchor her. Whitefall drops in class, can race just off the pace and will find this much easier than the 0-70 she contested last time. She looks a decent bet.
Whitefall has been running well on soft ground and this drop back to 10f after running well in a 0-70 over 12f looks an ideal opportunity. She led at the two furlong pole that day and just gave best inside the final furlong. Before that she had run two races in two days in better races than this. She was third to Unison in 0-65 which was good form considering the winner was dropping down from 0-75. She then made her way to Chepstow and got off the mark in another 0-65 where she just had to be driven out to win comfortably. That form has been franked with the fifth winning a hurdle race and placing again on the flat and the sixth winning a 0-60. She has her ideal conditions.
Ana Shababiya looks the main danger. She raced keenly in a 0-60 last time, leading and clear at 5f out; she hung on grimly in the closing stages. She is in effect up 8lbs here as Thomas Brown had taken a handy 3lbs off. That was her first sign of form and the underfoot conditions are very different today. She is a half sister to Be Ready and by Teofilio so the ground shouldn’t present problems.
Sutton Sid is 0-7, never placed, on turf. He hasn’t shown much for Chris Gordon and both his all weather wins were in sellers.
Hawaiian Dream has had 7 races and just placed in one. Her best form is on the all weather and has yet to encounter soft ground. This is her easiest assignment to date and the booking of Hughes takes the eye, 2-12 for the yard. Teal is 0-6 in 3yo handicaps on turf here.
Lucilla has never been in the frame in six outings and has shown nothing in three runs for Stuart Williams. This distance is right on the limit for the progeny of Holy Roman Emperor.
Prairie Prince has had three runs in maidens. Upped to 13f last time he finished 19ls behind the winner. That followed defeats over 7f of 20ls and 22ls. He may well improve but it would be a leap of faith to support him.
East Texas Red has one win from 16 races. He was backed from 25/1 into 5/1 in July in a 0-60 off 60. He ran reasonably well that day on firm ground. He is now 0-10 for Mick Quinn who is 1-70 in 2013 and 1-83 stretching back to November of last year.
Conclusion: Ana Shababiya should get an easy time out in front but she is headstrong and the 8lbs penalty may well anchor her. Whitefall drops in class, can race just off the pace and will find this much easier than the 0-70 she contested last time. She looks a decent bet.
mlmrob
Sire
OLYMPIAN BOY 5.35 STRATFORD
Olympian Boy has been found a suitable opportunity for his first run of the season. He ended last season with probably his best when 4thof 6th but just beaten 3.25ls in a 0-125 at Sandown. Paul Moloney gave him far too much to do that day and he just couldn’t reel the leaders in. The handicapper has been kind and dropped him 2lbs for that which means he squeezes into this 0-115. The winner of that race, Greywell Boy, went on to finish second to Fairy Rath in a 0-140 off 4lbs higher. Fairy Rath won again in a 0-145. In his previous race Olympian Boy won a 0-130 off 108. He carries a big weight here, 11-12; he has won a 0-110 with the same weight. He has won on the ground and this looks to be the perfect distance as he’s won over 18f before. He has won after a break of 120 days before so he shouldn’t need the run. Jason Maguire replaces Paul Moloney which is interesting as Moloney has a ride in the race. However, Maguire is a positive booking as his record for Sophie Leech since the start of last year reads; 2212P13P17.
Julie Prince made all the other day to win a 0-100 to register his first win in a first time tongue tie. He beat Novikov, trained by Sophie Leech, 5ls and it probably would have been closer but for Novikov’s horrendous mistake at the last. Julie Prince was previously third beaten 15ls when favourite for a 0-105. Lightly raced over the larger obstacles he has scope and McCoy is booked. The horse has never placed in seven races going left handed. He is 8lbs higher and up in grade.
Giant O Murchu won a 0-115 over course and distance last time off 106 and is 9lbs higher today. That was his first win for over a year which was over this course and distance off 107. He is 0-7 off marks above 107 never placing. The cheekpieces may well have brought some improvement and Aidan Coleman keeps the ride. He has to improve and this is tougher. He is 0-5, never placed, on good to soft or slower.
Catch Tammy won a 4 runner maiden chase at Towcester in May and has shown nothing in two handicaps since off a mark of 112. His overall record reads 0-7 in this grade. His sole win came after almost a year off. He has never placed in four races when returning to the track inside a month.
Rime Avec Gentil was pulled up in a Beginners Chase in 2011 and won a point to point in May of last year. He won two handicap hurdles off 100 and 107 in May of this year and has run well off marks around 110. That would suggest he should be thereabouts. Bernard Llewellyn has had 11 winners from 132 runners in handicap chases, the last winner was in April of 2012 and 25 have lost since. He is 0-5, none placed, with horses making their handicap chase debut for him. Paul Moloney has only ridden twice for the yard, unplaced both times.
Cruise In Style was beaten 8ls in a 0-100 off 98 two runs back. She is 0-11 going left handed though her best form is at Worcester. She has placed in three of her five chases but she was last of 8 in a 0-110 last time. In her career she is 0-5 in races where the highest rated horse is above 110.
Bobbits Way has pulled up in 9 of his 13 starts including his last four. His best form is a 2l 2nd in a selling hurdle in January and in four chases he has pulled up three times and was beaten 9ls in the other when 4th of 7 in a 0-100. He was actually second favourite for that race. He finished lame last time out and is 2lbs out of the handicap.
Conclusion: Julie Prince is likely to attempt to make all here but he will have company with Bobbits Way, Rime Avec Gentil, Cruise In Style and Giant O Murchu all liking to race prominently. This should set the race up for the hold up horses, Catch Tammy and Olympian Boy. There are enough negatives to oppose Catch Tammy and Olympian Boy should be able to pick this lot off as this is the easiest assignment he has had for a while.
Olympian Boy has been found a suitable opportunity for his first run of the season. He ended last season with probably his best when 4thof 6th but just beaten 3.25ls in a 0-125 at Sandown. Paul Moloney gave him far too much to do that day and he just couldn’t reel the leaders in. The handicapper has been kind and dropped him 2lbs for that which means he squeezes into this 0-115. The winner of that race, Greywell Boy, went on to finish second to Fairy Rath in a 0-140 off 4lbs higher. Fairy Rath won again in a 0-145. In his previous race Olympian Boy won a 0-130 off 108. He carries a big weight here, 11-12; he has won a 0-110 with the same weight. He has won on the ground and this looks to be the perfect distance as he’s won over 18f before. He has won after a break of 120 days before so he shouldn’t need the run. Jason Maguire replaces Paul Moloney which is interesting as Moloney has a ride in the race. However, Maguire is a positive booking as his record for Sophie Leech since the start of last year reads; 2212P13P17.
Julie Prince made all the other day to win a 0-100 to register his first win in a first time tongue tie. He beat Novikov, trained by Sophie Leech, 5ls and it probably would have been closer but for Novikov’s horrendous mistake at the last. Julie Prince was previously third beaten 15ls when favourite for a 0-105. Lightly raced over the larger obstacles he has scope and McCoy is booked. The horse has never placed in seven races going left handed. He is 8lbs higher and up in grade.
Giant O Murchu won a 0-115 over course and distance last time off 106 and is 9lbs higher today. That was his first win for over a year which was over this course and distance off 107. He is 0-7 off marks above 107 never placing. The cheekpieces may well have brought some improvement and Aidan Coleman keeps the ride. He has to improve and this is tougher. He is 0-5, never placed, on good to soft or slower.
Catch Tammy won a 4 runner maiden chase at Towcester in May and has shown nothing in two handicaps since off a mark of 112. His overall record reads 0-7 in this grade. His sole win came after almost a year off. He has never placed in four races when returning to the track inside a month.
Rime Avec Gentil was pulled up in a Beginners Chase in 2011 and won a point to point in May of last year. He won two handicap hurdles off 100 and 107 in May of this year and has run well off marks around 110. That would suggest he should be thereabouts. Bernard Llewellyn has had 11 winners from 132 runners in handicap chases, the last winner was in April of 2012 and 25 have lost since. He is 0-5, none placed, with horses making their handicap chase debut for him. Paul Moloney has only ridden twice for the yard, unplaced both times.
Cruise In Style was beaten 8ls in a 0-100 off 98 two runs back. She is 0-11 going left handed though her best form is at Worcester. She has placed in three of her five chases but she was last of 8 in a 0-110 last time. In her career she is 0-5 in races where the highest rated horse is above 110.
Bobbits Way has pulled up in 9 of his 13 starts including his last four. His best form is a 2l 2nd in a selling hurdle in January and in four chases he has pulled up three times and was beaten 9ls in the other when 4th of 7 in a 0-100. He was actually second favourite for that race. He finished lame last time out and is 2lbs out of the handicap.
Conclusion: Julie Prince is likely to attempt to make all here but he will have company with Bobbits Way, Rime Avec Gentil, Cruise In Style and Giant O Murchu all liking to race prominently. This should set the race up for the hold up horses, Catch Tammy and Olympian Boy. There are enough negatives to oppose Catch Tammy and Olympian Boy should be able to pick this lot off as this is the easiest assignment he has had for a while.
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mick
Sire
I work it Oct-April inc that does me well enough,but your interesting post reminds me that i must now start the prep work.
formtheory
Stallion
Nice post Rob!