Cheers Mick.She has probably run to her mark and she will definitely be of interest if her mark drops to where she can run in a 0-70.
TRADER JACK 5.15 GOODWOOD
Trader Jack has run some sound races in defeat and drops in class here. He was second to Vasily in a 0-105 last time. He was a tad unlucky as he got hit over the nose by a whip which halted his momentum. The third, Fennell Bay has franked the form and Vasily has run reasonably well off his new mark finishing second and fifth in a couple of class 2s. Trader Jack was previously fourth to Prince Of Johanne over 8f at Sandown. The third home was Wentworth who has gone on to win a valuable prize. Before that he was fifth in a 0-105 at Sandown from which six individual winners have come. He handles Goodwood with two seconds from three races and all conditions come alike to him.
Noble Gift makes his debut against his elders. He was fourth from 3lbs out of the handicap last time and was unlucky having to be switched more than once. He had previously won a 0-85 in a hood and a 0-75 at Nottingham. Bill Knight is 4-39 with 3yos making their debut against their elders but his record in the last 12 months reads, 410222221, so he is clearly adept at placing his charges. However, a negative is that in two races over 9f-10f Noble Gift has unplaced twice and he has unplaced twice in double figure fields. This is just his seventh run and he should run well.
Albaqaa won a 0-85 a few days ago off 82 and races off 88 in a better race today. He was winning off marks higher than this a couple of years ago but he isn’t as good as that now. He is 0-12 in the last 12 months off marks above 83.
Sir Mike won a 0-75 last time, his second in that grade this season. He has struggled off marks higher than 75, 0-10.
Rees Rascal has been holding his form well but is 0-6 in class 3, though he does have two nice placed efforts to his name. He was a short head behind Sir Mike last time when third over course and distance and is 6lbs better off today. He should run well.
Tuscania split Our Obsession and Nemushka last time and both those horses have subsequently won, Our Obsession won a listed race. However, Tuscania is 0-10 on good or softer ground and 0-7 in class 3.
Uppercut won over 8f here in May off 80 but is 0-9 off higher marks. Both his wins have come after a break of 30 days or more and he is 0-10 when returning sooner.
Heddwyn is very lightly raced and clearly needs time to get over his races. He won on his racecourse debut and was second on his debut last season. Marcus Tregoning is having a torrid season with just 4 winners from 54 runners.
Croquembouche is 0-6 on good or slower ground. He is 0-14 off marks above 74.
Mister Music is 0-7 over 9/10f and is yet to win a handicap, 0-9. He has a second in the Britannia in 2012 in his portfolio off 95. This is his easiest assignment in 2013.He is 0-9 on good to soft or slower.
Chellalla has one run in the UK last of 9 beaten 38ls. She won a couple of times in Italy on ground with cut but she is difficult to fancy in this.
Commissar is the second Ian Williams runner but his record of 0-4 on good or slower ground and 0-4 over distances beyond a mile makes him opposable.
Conclusion: There is only one recognised front runner in the race, Croquembouche. However, Sir Mike made all last time and a couple of others like to race prominently. Trader Jack is a horse that is usually held up. However, in races where there has been no pace, Trader Jack has raced prominently so he is tactically adept. Noble Gift will be very popular and is likely to go off favourite and he should be thereabouts but Trader Jack has been holding his own against much better horses and he has to go close here.
Good luck with this one mate.My figs say he put in his best current season run lto which can always be viewed as a positive,but its his run last Aug at this course which says to me he could win this.There is rain fc at the track and if this comes in time to ease the ground then imo it would futher enhance his chance.
