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Speed Figure Handicapping.

Hi BluesBrother

I know you don't do NH racing.

But do you have a going allowance table for the jumps ?

Thanks

Tractorboy
 
tractorboy said:
Hi BluesBrother
I know you don't do NH racing.
But do you have a going allowance table for the jumps ?
Thanks
Tractorboy
Click to expand...

The going allowance table I would use would be the same as the turf except I would have to extend the heavy going allowance per furlong figure.
You could say that the worst ground recorded so far in the past 2 years was at Ffos Las -3.00s/f (Heavy) :cool:

Turf going allowance table:
Firm +0.55s/f to +0.63s/f
Good/firm +0.20s/f to +0.53s/f
Good -0.25s/f to +0.18s/f
Good/soft -0.55s/f to -0.28s/f
Soft -1.00s/f to -0.58s/f
Heavy -1.58s/f to -1.03s/f

NH going allowance table:
Firm +0.55s/f to +0.63s/f
Good/firm +0.20s/f to +0.53s/f
Good -0.25s/f to +0.18s/f
Good/soft -0.55s/f to -0.28s/f
Soft -1.00s/f to -0.58s/f
Heavy -3.00s/f to -1.03s/f
 
Hi BluesBrother

What would you consider a very good speed figure for a 2yo , if you wanted to note it as one to follow ?
 
tractorboy said:
Hi BluesBrother
What would you consider a very good speed figure for a 2yo , if you wanted to note it as one to follow ?
Click to expand...

As I do not use WFA, from my experience, pattern class horses usually achieve a speed rating of 60+

if any 2yo achieves a speed rating higher than 60 on his first run he/she is well above average.

Example of my top 5 2yo's from 2012 season (their first speed figure):
Dawn Approach 71
Reckless Abandon 77
Moohaajim 62
Gale Force Ten 54
Trading Leather 84

The average of the top 5 is 70, so I would use this figure as a start off for group class horses :cool:
 
Hi BluesBrother

What method do you use to rate the beaten horses ?
Is it distance beaten divided by race distance or distance beaten multiplied by pounds per length.

Also on the youtube video you say you input the ratings on the racing post website , I have just become a member on there and it appears to me
that the tool is for handicap ratings as opposed to speed ratings.

Thanks BB
 
tractorboy said:
Hi BluesBrother
What method do you use to rate the beaten horses ?
Is it distance beaten divided by race distance or distance beaten multiplied by pounds per length.
Also on the youtube video you say you input the ratings on the racing post website , I have just become a member on there and it appears to me
that the tool is for handicap ratings as opposed to speed ratings.
Thanks BB
Click to expand...

The method I use to rate the beaten horses is the tool on the Racing Posts website, as it calculates the speed figures for the beaten horses.
All you do is enter in the lbs per length for the distance and the speed figure of the winner, then click calculate.
Using this tool removes human error, Imagine trying to work out beaten horses in a 30 runner handicap.
 
How do you determine when to split the straight course from the round , or the hurdle track from the chase ? when working out the going allowance.
Also how do you decide on the going allowance when only 1 race is run on the course(ie 5f Sandown)

I am still not sure why Dave Edwards split the sprints from the other races at Bath yesterday.
 
tractorboy said:
How do you determine when to split the straight course from the round , or the hurdle track from the chase ? when working out the going allowance.
Also how do you decide on the going allowance when only 1 race is run on the course(ie 5f Sandown)
I am still not sure why Dave Edwards split the sprints from the other races at Bath yesterday.
Click to expand...

I had 2 going allowances at Bath also, on the sprints I had +0.51s/f (firm) and on the routes I had the going as +0.31s/f (good to firm) :cool:

If you take Lingfield yesterday as an example, you will end up with 2 going allowances, one for the turf and one for the AW, and the same principle applies
for most tracks after it has been raining, most of the time you have different going allowance on straight course compared against the round course.

It makes your life much easier when you can rate a meeting that has only one going allowance, you will find racecourses like Carlise, when after a dry period
I have found that the round course can ride up to 30lb per furlong quicker than on the straight course :minigun:

When I am assessing the going allowances for a race meeting, I have the winners of every race laid out in front of me in an excel sheet so I can look out for patterns
the same as Dave Edwards would do.

An example of this was at Longchamp one day when on the 8 race card there were two 5f furlong races and looking at the speed figures at 0.00s/f per furlong, I had ratings of 40 and 45
and when I looked at the routes you see something like -35, -50, -45, a pattern has emerged here, the sprints was good going and the routes was good to soft.

Yesterday, I also had 2 going allowances for both Haydock and Pontefract, due no doubt to uneven watering.

Other patterns to watch for, are when you have the first 5 home in a handicap have suddenly improved 10lbs on their best speed figures, this is normally an indication
that your going allowance for that part of the course has been underestimated.

I have spent as much as I hour trying to work out going allowances for some meetings in Ireland, especially when the going is on the heavy side and slow run races, now with experience I can come up with an answer
unlike a couple of years ago would be sat there scratching my head.
 
Prime example yesterday at Haydock of what I'm on about. Take out De Riguer race and the straight and round courses would no doubt be split.
But De Riguer proved the round course wasn't riding any slower.I decided to take the meeting as a whole and had a going allowance of fast by 0.12s/f

Newbury is bothering me slightly due to Rees Rascal. Though run on the round course should it be part of the straight course allowance as they don't ride the whole bend.
 
tractorboy said:
Prime example yesterday at Haydock of what I'm on about. Take out De Riguer race and the straight and round courses would no doubt be split.
But De Riguer proved the round course wasn't riding any slower.I decided to take the meeting as a whole and had a going allowance of fast by 0.12s/f
Newbury is bothering me slightly due to Rees Rascal. Though run on the round course should it be part of the straight course allowance as they don't ride the whole bend.
Click to expand...

Haydock was a problem yesterday, I had to sit down and redo the figures.
The problem was I was looking at far to high a figure for De Rigueur and it is rare for the fastest speed figure to come from a 2m race,
it was the case of applying a best fit scenario i.e. by tweaking the going allowance so that the figures made sense.
I found that the round course was riding 5lbs per furlong faster than the straight course so I ended up with these going allowances, on the round course
I settled for +0.25s/f per furlong and the sprints including the 7f race I had +0.20s/f.

Most people do not realise that the majority of NH speed figures are the majority of the time just pure quest work due to heavy ground and slow pace races.

I had no problem with Newbury and had the same going allowance for both the straight and round course at +0.10s/f (good).
Ree's Rascal last 3 speed figures from me have been 84, 64 and 84 which I was happy with, I see that Dave Edwards has ended up with a speed figure for him of 89
which suggests to me he has the going at Newbury at approx +0.02s/f (good).
 
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