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RaceIQ Explained, Part 3: The Finish

Excellent work Sullybomb Sullybomb and more or less what we might expect, maybe horses going up in class doing a little better than expected.
Horses going up in class very likely going there having won lto or at least showing it is in decent form.
Dropping in class might suggest the opposite ie "not in form" but there lies the conundrum, how do yo measure a horse winning a class 6 against a horse having run down the field in a cl4 ?
It's a tough question that probably relies too much on judgement for many people but one factor that can help is to take into account the average official rating of both horse going up in class and the horse dropping in class, again there's a judgement involved but by definition we'll see the droppers being at the top end of the handicap which is usually a positive and not always found in the early market.

While i'm already satisfied there is value in " class droppers " breaking down which ones is obviously the hard bit and atm i rely too much on "form" and guesswork via " trainer intent ", so i'll leave it there for now. cheers.
 
tacker said:
Excellent work Sullybomb Sullybomb and more or less what we might expect, maybe horses going up in class doing a little better than expected.
Horses going up in class very likely going there having won lto or at least showing it is in decent form.
Dropping in class might suggest the opposite ie "not in form" but there lies the conundrum, how do yo measure a horse winning a class 6 against a horse having run down the field in a cl4 ?
It's a tough question that probably relies too much on judgement for many people but one factor that can help is to take into account the average official rating of both horse going up in class and the horse dropping in class, again there's a judgement involved but by definition we'll see the droppers being at the top end of the handicap which is usually a positive and not always found in the early market.

While i'm already satisfied there is value in " class droppers " breaking down which ones is obviously the hard bit and atm i rely too much on "form" and guesswork via " trainer intent ", so i'll leave it there for now. cheers.
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Your spot on T tacker - this is handicap to handicap, LastRace to Current Race on UK Flat Turf & AW since 2011 up to yesterday.
Nearly half of all class risers here were at least placed last race and around a quarter won their race
Distinctly different when a horse drops in class in a handicap with just under 16% placed last race and only around 3% won their race.
You would kind of expect this though given our handicapping system where you get punished for running well.
In the USA with their claiming system based on "money" class droppers who have run well last race account for around 45% - there is no official punishment from a handicapper only the chance that a trainer could lose the horse.

Basically if a horse is dropping in class in a handicap from a handicap it is around 84% that it finished out of the placings

HcapHcapClass.png
 
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T tacker Here is the same idea but if you take Race Value ÂŁ into account.

Newcastle AW only as an example.

Genuine Drop = Class & Race Value -20% or more

Hidden Rise = Class remains the same & Race Value +20% or more

1794474122906.png

Most of it is already priced in the market @ Newcastle anyway, I haven't checked all courses but, I think ARAZI91 ARAZI91 has summed it up nicely.


(Here is Lingfield AW as a comparison)

1794474497262.png
 
Looking at those charts are interesting as you would have thought dropping in class would have been little higher percentage and when you add dropping and class and going up in class together which is usually horses first out of form and second horses in form they would still do worse than just backing favs percentage wise, but still a massive 70 % gap in winners so where do they come from obviously has to be horses running in same class as last time as we have took higher class and lower class.
So i wonder then how horses who have run well last time so inform but would need to be close to winner to be right and running in same class would fair compared to these.
Now i assume you cant do a chart to within say 3 lengths of winner so all you could do is how have horses who won last timeout and stay in same class next time done if its higher than all these percentages then that could be good sign obviously winners go up say 7lb on average to so if that percentage is good you could actually be looking for horses who placed last time out and where with in couple of lengths of winner not up say more than 2 lb and running in same class again as bets.
 
I've been giving these matters a little thought and, because you lads know your way around the stats, it appears there's nothing obvious to support a theory in favour of horses dropping in class.


What I still believe is worth remembering is "trainer intent". I doubt many trainers of lower-grade horses give much thought to complicated numbers and instead rely on a simple principle of giving a horse a poor ride in a higher grade before asking for the ride that best suits that particular horse. The trouble with that thinking is that it can't really be proven with charts and statistics, or at least I presume that's the case.


What might be an interesting test is to look at the change in winning times between the classes. Is there a fairly steady progression in times as you move from Class 6 to Class 5, then from Class 5 to Class 4 and so on, or are some of the jumps more significant than others? I don't have any evidence, but my feeling is that the difference in times between Class 5 and Class 4 is greater than the difference between Class 6 and Class 5. I might be completely wrong, but it would be interesting to see if the numbers back that up.
 
gerry said:
Looking at those charts are interesting as you would have thought dropping in class would have been little higher percentage and when you add dropping and class and going up in class together which is usually horses first out of form and second horses in form they would still do worse than just backing favs percentage wise, but still a massive 70 % gap in winners so where do they come from obviously has to be horses running in same class as last time as we have took higher class and lower class.
So i wonder then how horses who have run well last time so inform but would need to be close to winner to be right and running in same class would fair compared to these.
Now i assume you cant do a chart to within say 3 lengths of winner so all you could do is how have horses who won last timeout and stay in same class next time done if its higher than all these percentages then that could be good sign obviously winners go up say 7lb on average to so if that percentage is good you could actually be looking for horses who placed last time out and where with in couple of lengths of winner not up say more than 2 lb and running in same class again as bets.
Click to expand...
Only problem with that gerry gerry is that by stacking all those "positives" up on horses that are running in the same class such as the ones you mention
1) Running within 3 lengths of the winner last race
2) Placed last race
3) OR rise no more than 2 lbs from last race

you would then lose more money than just simply looking at a horse running in the same class - the basic win% goes up but so does the negative ROI to bookmakers prices and exchange prices which means these factors are highly noticed and then overbet
This stuff is highly visible to the betting public although there are punters out there who think that it's only them that is noticing this kind of stuff

Here's ALL horses running from handicap to handicap and in the same class on the Flat & AW since 2011 and then i've extracted all of them that have the factors that you mentioned above as a comparison

SameClass1.png

Have used Betfairs pricing as you know that bookmakers pricing contains an average 16% more weight attached at SP so no need to even consider them - At Betfair your still betting into a near 100% book even at the off and this accounts for 2% commission so makes this kind of thing easier to understand.
So notice that by attaching those three "positives" your now betting into a pool of horses that loses more than double what it originally lost, the RETURN to what you have bet to level stakes jumps from -2.78% to -5.89%
I've showed what is happening within the actual average odds at base level in the second table
using ALL horses that run in the same class you can see that the BFSP is very, very close to what the actual BFSP is derived by win% BUT when you attach those 3 variables as you suggested you can see that the BFSP by win % has moved away from the BFSP your betting at.
Would be betting nirvana if you could just simply stack positives up on horses and just bet them but there is a long term cost in terms of price returned as a % and actual win%
 
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