My Selecections (pinstickers guide)

[Paul Brown]

Using GeeGeez at this distance

AI using ATR ratings

Race Analysis: 3.12 Newcastle (likely 1m 2f or 10f handicap on Tapeta) I’ve grouped the horses by likely running style based on their Pace Ratings (higher = more forward), recent comments, race records, and typical profiles. Non-runners (Haku, King’s Code, Jolly Jack Tar) are excluded.Likely Leaders / Front-Runners (Pace Rating 7-8+)These horses have the highest pace ratings and are most likely to contest the lead or go forward early.

• Will Scarlet (2) – Pace Rating 8
  Strongest pace profile in the field. Has cheekpieces (good record in them) and a history of racing prominently. Effective at 10-12f. Could try to dictate or press the pace.
• Cloth Of Gold (10) – Pace Rating 7
  Course & Distance winner at Newcastle. Often races prominently or on the speed. Fresh AW return after a poor turf run; dangerous if allowed an easy lead.

Prominent / Pressers (Pace Rating 5-6ish, forward bias)Horses that usually sit handy just off the lead or in the front half.

• Eternal Force (1) – Pace Rating 5
  Consistent, acts well at 1m and should handle 10f. Usually prominent or midfield. Recent near-miss at Hamilton shows he’s in form. Tom Marquand/Haggas combo adds strength.
• The Glen Rovers (8) – Pace Rating 5
  Multiple course winner (including C&D). Strong AW/Tapeta record. Often races prominently. Respected back on his favoured surface despite a recent turf blip.
• Wanderlust (11) – Pace Rating 5
  Midfield-to-prominent type. Recent form is fair but needs a step forward.

Midfield / VersatileHorses that can settle in mid-division or adjust based on the run.

• Whitcombe Rockstar (4) – Pace Rating 4
  Often races midfield or just off the pace. Multiple winner but recent turf run was poor. Visor/tongue strap combo; AW record is solid but needs to bounce back.
• Per Contra (12) – (Pace not explicitly rated, but profile suggests midfield)
  C&D winner with cheekpieces. Often settles in mid-pack. Hugh Taylor fancies; could improve back on AW.

Hold-Up Horses (Pace Rating 3-4, rear or late runners)These prefer to come from further back and may need a strong pace to run into.

• Rogue Millions (5) – Pace Rating 3
  Low pace rating, big colt. Stays the trip but recent form is patchy. Hold-up style; tricky to assess.
• Rainbow Nebula (9) – Pace Rating 3
  Another hold-up type. Course winner but usually comes late. Recent York run was okay but more needed here.

Quick Summary / Pace Map Outlook

• Likely pace scenario: Will Scarlet (highest pace rating) and possibly Cloth Of Gold are the main speed. Eternal Force and The Glen Rovers can sit prominently. This could set up a decent pace for hold-up horses if the front-end goes hard.
• Key contenders by style:
  • Leaders/Prominent: Will Scarlet, Cloth Of Gold, Eternal Force, The Glen Rovers.
  • Midfield: Whitcombe Rockstar, Per Contra.
  • Hold-up: Rogue Millions, Rainbow Nebula.

Run Style Bias Summary (from your image):

Run Style	Runners	Wins	SR%	A/E	IV
Led	135	12	8.89	0.76	1.02
Prominent	353	43	12.18	1.08	1.4
Mid Division	264	18	6.82	0.65	0.81
Held Up	546	40	7.33	0.79	0.84

Clear bias: Prominent runners dominate — best strike rate, A/E and Impact Value. Hold-up horses are at a disadvantage, as are midfield runners to a lesser extent.

Newcastle Racecourse All Weather Run Style Bias geegeez.co.uk

In this second article of a new series where I have been looking at run style bias at individual all weather tracks, we travel up North (from where I'm writing, at least) to Newcastle, writes Dave Renham. Newcastle changed from a turf flat course to an all weather one in 2016, employing a Tapeta...

www.geegeez.co.uk

 

[Paul Brown]

Its a long way from

Kimpton to Newcastle for Ralph Beckett​

Chinned on the line with the fav

 

[Paul Brown]

Adrian Massey 5-6 furlongs by weight carried.

I am mulling over I'm Dan Dare in the 5:32 race at Newcastle. I think I will hold back on betting on this one until later. The horse improved last time out at York, where its rating went up 5lb for finishing a close second by a neck in a better class race. It was just narrowly beaten that day. The race commentary noted that it: 'Pressed the leader in the centre of the group, led narrowly 2f (furlongs) out, lost a cheekpiece over 1f out, hung left and was headed 1f out, but kept on inside the final furlong (opening odds 8/1).'
PRB squared last 2 runs shows up well.

84​

90.3​

17:32 NewcastleRace Card
1

5I'm Dan Dare7/2 f
2

9Slot10/1
3

4Brave Traveller7/1