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my placepot

simon boardman said:
cosmicsports cosmicsports , have you read the link I posted up ? click on Multi Race Bet Builder
Click to expand...

So if I can make it a three-pot, for the sake of simplicity and my selections are A,B,C it gives me:

AAA
AAB
ABA
BAA
AAC
ACA
CAA
ABB
BAB
BBA

That, is 10 lines out of the total of 27.
Is that what you did ?

Look into those:

Untitled Document

Those are pick-9 (!) systems.
To do yours I use three AND type filters as follows:

A's = 4 to 6
B's = 0 to 2
C's = 0 to 1

This is in a Greek language software.
But I don't know of any strange filter function for horse systems, although I described a strange type of filter, based on the "odd man out" idea, three posts before.
If you want the Greek program it's for xp basically but you can make it run after some adjustments. But I don't have the source code to change the language. Lost it.
 
We seem to be marching towards an ignominous defeat.
Maybe some among you are better handicappers than me but as my selections are close to the market selections, I call it an ignominous defeat.
Next I will introduce placepot systems with cutoff point (that is, the first say 100 easy lines are ignored).
I don't expect from that, but I think we have to see how it goes.
Then we try other medications.
 
cosmicsports cosmicsports i agree to a larger extent and the same thought occupied my mind over the weekend. the key to the placepot is seeing short priced favs knocked out of the frame. these horses carry a large percentage slice of the pot . it amazes me why that is the case , as surely anyone that puts a bit of thought into the make up of the bet will realise that the dividend will be small if these Favs place . to the other extent , this provides us with an opportunity because of that situation.
i try to frame my bet around a " what if ? " scenario and the make up of my bet/perm is as much to do with this and the shape of the card. if we follow certain tipsters , the Racing Post selections and the BF market then we can say to a great extent that the breakdown of the Pool is mirroring these selections.
the next conundrum is , how much money should we throw at the bet ? and what is the best type of strategy / perm ? i have shown some examples of using lots of single lines that have been permed in a certain way , you have used your examples and jammy54 jammy54 has posted up his smaller perms . there seems to be no ideal strategy that captures a fair amount of dividends and i have certainly been disappointed this year as i usually land on one or two nice dividends. i spend far too much too , on these placepots !! which is disconcerting , so maybe it is time for the chop.
 
simon boardman said:
cosmicsports cosmicsports i agree to a larger extent and the same thought occupied my mind over the weekend. the key to the placepot is seeing short priced favs knocked out of the frame. these horses carry a large percentage slice of the pot . it amazes me why that is the case , as surely anyone that puts a bit of thought into the make up of the bet will realise that the dividend will be small if these Favs place . to the other extent , this provides us with an opportunity because of that situation.
i try to frame my bet around a " what if ? " scenario and the make up of my bet/perm is as much to do with this and the shape of the card. if we follow certain tipsters , the Racing Post selections and the BF market then we can say to a great extent that the breakdown of the Pool is mirroring these selections.
the next conundrum is , how much money should we throw at the bet ? and what is the best type of strategy / perm ? i have shown some examples of using lots of single lines that have been permed in a certain way , you have used your examples and jammy54 jammy54 has posted up his smaller perms . there seems to be no ideal strategy that captures a fair amount of dividends and i have certainly been disappointed this year as i usually land on one or two nice dividends. i spend far too much too , on these placepots !! which is disconcerting , so maybe it is time for the chop.
Click to expand...

Well, first I have n't looked into today's meetings yet.

Re. the above, there are two strategies.
First don't follow the market. My father used to do that with great success. But he was not one to explain his methods to others, even me ! I believe he was an expert in jockeys and jockey bookings, so many times he spotted things other people could not see and this is what he was doing rather than blindly reject the jollies.
Second follow the market but reject the easy lines.
See my "Bismarck" post about the ordering of the lines.
But this is n't likely to work in my experience - see my "meteors" post !
Yet there may be some subtler approach.
 
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cosmicsports cosmicsports , i will look forward to your more subtler approaches with interest. it is a good point you raise with " blindly rejecting the jollies ". of course there are many times when this is folly and i indeed do use a Fav as a banker to cut my perms down to a more manageable expense. but to land a good dividend we need these favs out of the frame !! this can be hard to predict and many times when i oppose them they win or place. this then begs the question do we double up in these sorts of race. do we play the Fav and a relative outsider ? which then gives us a better chance to progress onto the next race. there maybe 2 or more maidens on the racecard which usually have strong favs . how do we approach the more difficult looking handicaps ? before we know it we have many contenders , and the cost of the bet can run away with you !
its a big puzzle !!
 
Last edited:
simon boardman said:
cosmicsports cosmicsports , i will look forward to your more subtler approaches with interest. it is a good point you raise with " blindly rejecting the jollies ". of course there are many times when this is folly and i indeed do use a Fav as a banker to cut my perms down to a more manageable expense. but to land a good dividend we need these favs out of the frame !! this can be hard to predict and many times when i oppose them they win or place. this then begs the question do we double up in these sorts of race. do we play the Fav and a relative outsider ? which then gives us a better chance to progress onto the next race. there maybe 2 or more maidens on the racecard which usually have strong favs . how do we approach the more difficult looking handicaps ? before we know it we have many contenders , and the cost of the bet can run away with you !
its a big puzzle !!
Click to expand...

What puzzles is why one of my groups enjoyed a -relative- success once through a departure from rigorous statistical theory (see some posts above). With payout as low as 40% as well (and effectively 25-30% in my opinion).
 
Brighton

4 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 7 / 5-10-12-1-8-6
4 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 6 / 5
4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 7 / 5-10-12
4 / 2 / 1 / 4 / 7 / 5
4 / 2 / 7-6 / 1 / 7 / 5
4 / 3 / 1 / 1 / 7 / 5-10-12-1-8-6
4 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 7 / 5-10-12
4 / 3 / 7 / 1 / 7 / 5
7 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 7 / 5-10-12-1
7 / 3 / 1 / 1 / 7 / 5-10-12

30 lines, 10 plays


Windsor

2 / 5 / 1 / 6 / 5 / 7-13
2 / 5 / 1 / 6 / 7 / 7
2 / 5 / 1 / 4 / 5 / 7-13
2 / 5 / 1 / 5 / 5 / 7
2 / 5 / 2 / 6 / 5 / 7
2 / 1 / 1 / 6 / 5 / 7-13
2 / 1 / 1 / 6 / 7 / 7
2 / 1 / 1 / 4 / 5 / 7-13
2 / 1 / 1 / 5 / 5 / 7
2 / 1 / 2 / 6 / 5 / 7
2 / 11-9 / 1 / 6 / 5 / 7
7 / 5 / 1 / 6 / 5 / 7-13
7 / 5 / 1 / 6 / 7 / 7
7 / 5 / 1 / 4 / 5 / 7-13
7 / 5 / 1 / 5 / 5 / 7
7 / 5 / 2 / 6 / 5 / 7
7 / 1 / 1 / 6 / 5 / 7-13
7 / 1 / 1 / 6 / 7 / 7
7 / 1 / 1 / 4-5 / 5 / 7
7 / 11-9 / 1 / 6 / 5 / 7

30 lines, 20 plays

(condensation managed to save only 1/3 of the tickets in this one)
 
2:00 Leicester The Stalking Moon
2:00 Leicester Darkroom Angel
2:30 Leicester Mecca's Missus
2:30 Leicester Infiniti
3:00 Leicester Presence Process
3:30 Leicester Noble Storm
3:30 Leicester A Momentofmadness
3:30 Leicester Dungannon
4:00 Leicester Lovely Story
4:30 Leicester Carpe Diem Lady
12 lines at .20p
 
2:20 Perth Only Orvieto
2:55 Perth Alizee De Janeiro
3:30 Perth No Win No Fee
4:05 Perth Tangolan
4:40 Perth Top Billing
4:40 Perth Landecker
5:15 Perth L'apogee
2 lines at .50p
 
2:20 Pontefract Mont Royal
2:55 Pontefract Party Nights
3:30 Pontefract Yeeoow
4:00 Pontefract Montsarrat
4:00 Pontefract Masterpaver
4:35 Pontefract Actualisation
5:10 Pontefract Market Choice
2 lines at .50p
 
5:45 Chelmsford Biologist
6:15 Chelmsford High Acclaim
6:45 Chelmsford Stamford Raffles
7:15 Chelmsford Tarboosh
7:45 Chelmsford Pacific Salt
8:15 Chelmsford Cat Royale
1 line at £1
 
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