My ongoing take on class/form

[Jackform]

There is a thread debating this that I have read where finding a winner in th race, not of the race is the theme. These are my thoughts for the principal meeting today.

Yarmouth (GS some S in places) Market odds from around 8am. Top track trainer W Haggas. Top track jockey Billy Loughnane.

1.55 Massimo Blue 9/4 mkt. Loughnane up.
2.31 Bidsta 2/5. Lougyhnane up.
3.06 (too many unexposed runners)
3.41 Rhapsody 11/4. W Haggas 23 my rating also has a 2nd string Orionis?
4.12 Enoch 11/10. J&T Gosden 29 currently going well. RL Moore up is a positive indicator.
4.45 No selection but I did check Clocker. E Bethel 5? Loughnane up.
5.15 Court Drive 3/1. Loughnane up.

Comment: Just my poor opinion of course and I wouldn't support anything shorter than 6/4 opposite the risk. Just have to check the market nearer the off.

 

[Chesham]

Good work Jackform on arriving with your idea of the Class/Form horses in each race so quickly . Do you have any of your Pen and Ink reasoning for these it could be a game changer for those struggling to identify a Class/Form horse in one race let alone 7 races

 

[Jackform]

Chesham, as will be aware I am a very old punter after having an interest on and off since 1951. A pundit I have a lot of respect for is the proprietor of the old RacingSystemBuilder, Tim Drakeford. A decade or so ago he wrote a free ebook that I have on file and consult from time to time. A passage from it that I have posted on UKBF from time to time I will post again as a starter:

"We have said that systematic betting is based on a scientific premise: that the past forecasts the future. It is also based on the scientific premise that certain principles or laws underlie the apparent chaos of the universe. So, what are the underlying principles at work on the racecourse? You may have heard the old saw that fast horses win races. This is a tautology, because by definition, of course, the fastest horse in the race on the day always wins. The trick is to find the one which will be fastest on the day before the race is run! To me, this trick has three aspects. First, the horse must have the ability to win the race. Second, the horse must be able to show its form - that is, to live up to its innate ability. Thirdly, and absolutely vitally, the animal must be fancied by the people connected with it. If they are definitely not trying, then the horse will not win, and if they are not trying very hard it is less likely to win than might otherwise seem the case. These are the questions, then, that the punter must answer before choosing a runner on which he might bet -
Does the horse have sufficient ability to win a race of this type?
Are the circumstances right for the ability to be shown on this occasion?
Do connections expect the horse to win or go close?
If the answers to these three questions are an unequivocal "yes", then the punter has found the right sort of horse on which to invest his money. Whether he should actually do so or not depends on the final imponderable, value."

In fact the above probably is the answer to your query. So to be high class a horse has to have speed, meet weight conditions and when runnintg generally have market support. Since 1978 I have kept a top 20 trainers seasonal leaderboard up date before each weekend and festivals. I compile a pen-and-paper chart for a meeting and study it to come to my decisions.

 

[Chesham]

Hi Jackform I think Tim Drakeford would have better off describing the horse who takes the Least time from A To B, rather than “You may have heard the old saw that fast horses win races. This is a tautology, because by definition, of course, the fastest horse in the race on the day always wins. The trick is to find the one which will be fastest on the day before the race is run! ”

Quite often the fastest horse does not win for various reasons. they need a a certain pace set up to replicate their speed performance , be able to conserve energy or be able to dominate the race from the front by setting the fractions just right To mention many of the ponderables

For instance yesterday the winner was not the fastest in the Race.

.
Kinematic Reality: The anticipated high-pressure pace battle never materialized. Obito (who mapped as a 34% Held Up closer) jumped perfectly (0-20 mph in 2.82s) and was allowed to cross over and lead the race totally uncontested. Because there was no pace pressure, the front-runners were not taxed. Pol Roger tracked pace, pushed along over 3f out, led over 2f out, tackled soon after, asserted approaching final 1f, kept on well;


The Resulting Trap: This slow, uncontested early pace completely neutralized Magical Merlot's elite 107.5% Finishing Speed. He made "headway on outer over 2f out" but simply lacked the "pace to challenge" in a sprint to the line. He finished 3rd at 3.4 BSP.

 

[Horseplayer]

Be a lot nearer the mark to change "fast horses win races" to "fast horses win true run races"

 

[Chesham]

I think it was Robert99 who said slow horses win fast races and Fast Horse win slow races.

It took myself awhile,to understand that a Fast Horse can dominate from the front if not challenged but the final time slow and a Slow horse (Hold UP can win fast races if the pace collapses because several horses take each other on. The slow horse conserves energy

 

[Michael231]

Might be better if backing the jockey who can read the race better than the rest that wins the race

 

[MySportsAI]

If you knew the fastest horse in each race beforehand you would make money long term, you would not win every race for reasons stated by others but you would be highly profitable. That is what Tim means IMO