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My course and distance System.

Fazman

Fazman

Yearling
I have been placing bets on a system i back tested during lockdown on horses to place in handicap races.
since July i have been making a nice profit from it . Small points profit a week but adds up.
One thing i have noticed that it does produce winners and i have looked at horses that have previously won over course and distance or course and the distance.
Since July there was 89 selections that met my criteria and have won over C/D before.
29 won ,30 placed and 30 losers.
32% win rate
66% win/place rate
The longest losing sequence so far is 8 in a row
The longest winning sequence is 5 in a row
This has produced Winning prices from 5/4 to 25-1
Giving a 76 points profit to SP 85% ROI
And 110 points profit to BSP 124% ROI
I know 89 bets is a relatively small bet data to go on, but as it has been over a few months with selected bets meeting criteria It seems more than a purple patch.
I will post my selections on here for a month to see what people think, there will not be bets everyday, And I’ll see if the strike rate continues.

todays selections 21/9
2.35 Leic -Firmdecisions -13/2 (was 16-1 when picked last night)
6.00 Wol - Deconso -9/2
 
Both selections ran well without bringing home the bacon.
P/L -4 pts
Tomorrows 23/9
2.20 The Lamplighter
3.15 Dream house
3.50 mr cocobean
4.40 Duke of firenze
 
1 winner today 9/4f sp
The ground at Redcar changed from good to firm to Soft . From my experience all bets are off when sudden going changes occur, Especially when you base your selections on recent form On different ground.
i like to see strong Previous RPRs on soft/heavy before i would back a horse on it. And my 2 selections at Redcar Wouldn't of Been a selections if i known going was Soft. All said and done ill put them down as minus 2 points. On to tomorrow 24/9
3.45 Normandy Barriere 9-1 EP
4.20 Mews house 11-1 EP
6.00 mister Allegro 6/4 Ep
P/L -5.75 Pts
 
A few points, too many apps point at CD winners, they are flagged up in other sources, so prices tend to be false. A better approach might be to note horses who have form on similar courses, but not CD winners, that way the value is not squeezed out. The other point is that you have to filter out all the other values to identify if CD is significant, ie, time of year, form of stable, jockey, time between runs, pace angle of race etc etc etc. All those of course, impact upon results. To truly appreciate the effect of CD form you have to dig into results in some depth.

The second point is that, in my view, it is changes in weather that have a significant effect on form, as well as changes in going, after all a weather change precedes a change in going. That means, that weather, and particularly temperature and humidity are very significant. As much so as changes in going. It also means that a horse can act on going you would not necessarily anticipate, if the weather has settled after bringing about a change in going.

CD winners too, are much more significant on courses that are idiosyncratic and quite different from the norm, look at Cartmel and Carlise, for instance, rather than Newbury or Doncaster.

The answer, as always, is more complicated when framing an approach, than first appears, good luck and keep up the interesting work.
 
GLYCERINE said:
A few points, too many apps point at CD winners, they are flagged up in other sources, so prices tend to be false. A better approach might be to note horses who have form on similar courses, but not CD winners, that way the value is not squeezed out. The other point is that you have to filter out all the other values to identify if CD is significant, ie, time of year, form of stable, jockey, time between runs, pace angle of race etc etc etc. All those of course, impact upon results. To truly appreciate the effect of CD form you have to dig into results in some depth.

The second point is that, in my view, it is changes in weather that have a significant effect on form, as well as changes in going, after all a weather change precedes a change in going. That means, that weather, and particularly temperature and humidity are very significant. As much so as changes in going. It also means that a horse can act on going you would not necessarily anticipate, if the weather has settled after bringing about a change in going.

CD winners too, are much more significant on courses that are idiosyncratic and quite different from the norm, look at Cartmel and Carlise, for instance, rather than Newbury or Doncaster.

The answer, as always, is more complicated when framing an approach, than first appears, good luck and keep up the interesting work.
Click to expand...
Nice post. I have tried many systems over the years . Some purchased, some read online and some subscribed ones and of course my own. And some people spend a lot of time studying a race and go to a lot of trouble developing software to help find a winner of a race , in my experience they all as good as just looking at the form yourself in the daily Apps /papers and If someone had found the holy grail they wouldn't share it thats for sure. The system im running at the moment is a place bet system, as i mentioned. But what i noticed is that most of the winners are C/D winners , so im using my place system but just posting the ones that are C/D winners . I dont want to add another layer onto my system.
all you want when you back a horse that it runs to form and so you want to pick a horse That has a chance if it does.(At the weights and the going)
I done a test few years back , where my 5 yr old Daughter picked a horse from the paper for its colours . My wife picked a horse for its name and i picked it from studying form , We done 6 races on a sat afternoon, i had 2 winners total odds 7-1 , my daughter had a winner at 8–1 and my wife had a winner at 12-1. We all finished day in profit. What im trying to say is you can study and study all day long but you need luck as much as data/stats , luck in running and luck that the horse is on a good day .
 
No good today
I made mistake on previous Profit/loss record.
CurrentP/L -6.75
Tomorrows picks 25/9
5.55 Lord of the Glen 2-1 EP
8.00 Great colaci 9/2 EP
8.30 Lucky Lodge 13/2 EP
 
GLYCERINE said:
A few points, too many apps point at CD winners, they are flagged up in other sources, so prices tend to be false. A better approach might be to note horses who have form on similar courses, but not CD winners, that way the value is not squeezed out. The other point is that you have to filter out all the other values to identify if CD is significant, ie, time of year, form of stable, jockey, time between runs, pace angle of race etc etc etc. All those of course, impact upon results. To truly appreciate the effect of CD form you have to dig into results in some depth.

The second point is that, in my view, it is changes in weather that have a significant effect on form, as well as changes in going, after all a weather change precedes a change in going. That means, that weather, and particularly temperature and humidity are very significant. As much so as changes in going. It also means that a horse can act on going you would not necessarily anticipate, if the weather has settled after bringing about a change in going.

CD winners too, are much more significant on courses that are idiosyncratic and quite different from the norm, look at Cartmel and Carlise, for instance, rather than Newbury or Doncaster.

The answer, as always, is more complicated when framing an approach, than first appears, good luck and keep up the interesting work.
Click to expand...
Some good points above. One of my fav situations is when an animal has relevant course form without previously winning there. Re the going imo the real edge is when you can predict a going change ahead of the market. I have found that the Bookmakers early odds compilers do not appear to be weather forecast readers and this can cause ricks and create value opportunities. As the posters final sentence says a very complex subject with few easy answers, indeed i would caution beware of any apparent obvious finds.
 
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mick said:
Some good points above. One of my fav situations is when an animal has relevant course form without previously winning there. Re the going imo the real edge is when you can predict a going change ahead of the market. I have found that the Bookmakers early odds compilers do not appear to be weather forecast readers and this can cause ricks and create value opportunities. As the posters final sentence says a very complex subject with few easy answers, indeed i would caution beware of any apparent obvious finds.
Click to expand...
You are right Mick ( how do you insert user name into post?) weather prediction could of been very useful last few days alone , pettochside yesterday for instance The going was good to firm night before, rain came for it and backed into fav and won easy .
 
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