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Market Report

T

tony spencer

Filly
Tony, here’s a clean market-moves report for 2026-04-16 based on the runners you posted.


Market report summary​


The strongest positive money signals are around:


  • Sea And Sun — Ripon, 1m3f Nov Stks
    Massive steam profile. Price shortened 20.00% and it has the strongest overall move in the sample with NetMoveScore 137.86. Clear Back Watch.
  • Glistening Nights — Ripon, 1m2f Hcap
    Big price contraction of 15.38% with NetMoveScore 78.03. Strong market support from a bigger price. Back Watch.
  • Maho Bay — Newmarket, 1m2f Nov Stks
    Solid shortening of 8.70% and NetMoveScore 69.93. Strong positive signal. Back Watch.
  • Hidden Force — Newmarket, 1m Grp 3
    Strong steam in a good-quality market. Price in 5.71%, NetMoveScore 68.06, liquidity high. Back Watch.
  • Sovereign Spell — Newmarket, 6f Hcap
    No recent price change, but still a strong positive composite profile with SteamScore 45.98, NetMoveScore 68.27, and a strong visible money share. Back Watch.

Also notable on the positive side:


  • Ironwill — strong steam, NetMoveScore 63.50
  • Urchin — strong steam despite flat price, NetMoveScore 46.36
  • Crown Knott — useful support, NetMoveScore 41.13
  • Coastguard Station — positive chase-market signal, NetMoveScore 33.48
  • Sherborne — mild but positive support, NetMoveScore 16.64
  • Spoken Truth — smaller move, still positive, NetMoveScore 19.04
  • Oxagon — only medium confidence, but still positive, NetMoveScore 12.42

Strongest drifters​


The most negative market signals are:


  • Poppeye — Ripon, 1m3f Nov Stks
    Very weak profile. Price drifted 14.71% with NetMoveScore -101.58. Strong Lay Watch.
  • Thursday Girl — Newmarket, 7f Mdn Stks
    Strong drift with NetMoveScore -83.90. Clear negative signal. Lay Watch.
  • Amadeus Mozart — Newmarket, 1m2f Nov Stks
    Drift of 8.86%, very negative NetMoveScore -55.56, despite strong visible share. Lay Watch.
  • Sir William — Ripon, 1m2f Hcap
    Negative profile with NetMoveScore -50.97. Lay Watch.
  • Treanmor — Newmarket, 6f Hcap
    Drift of 6.67%, NetMoveScore -19.44. Lay Watch.

Other notable negatives:


  • Physique — -41.47
  • Caliyan — -12.99
  • Hassaleh — -18.76
  • Time For Sandals — -24.27
  • Hawk Mountain — -31.76
  • Black Hawk Eagle — -31.78
  • Avicenna — weak drift, low confidence, -5.14

Best races to trust from a liquidity view​


The strongest races by market quality in your sample look to be:


  • Newmarket 1m Grp 3 — matched 59778.13, High liquidity
  • Newmarket 6f Hcap — matched 42542.68, High liquidity
  • Newmarket 6f Grp 3 — matched 41956.52, High liquidity
  • Newmarket 1m2f Nov Stks — matched 21436.34, medium liquidity
  • Newmarket 7f Mdn Stks — matched 19560.13, medium liquidity

So the market signals around Hidden Force, Sovereign Spell, Ironwill, Maho Bay probably carry more weight than similar-looking moves in thinner races.


Short betting-style view​


Stronger back-watch names​


  1. Sea And Sun
  2. Glistening Nights
  3. Maho Bay
  4. Hidden Force
  5. Sovereign Spell
  6. Ironwill

Stronger lay-watch names​


  1. Poppeye
  2. Thursday Girl
  3. Amadeus Mozart
  4. Sir William
  5. Physique
  6. Hawk Mountain

Practical take​


The standout steam horse from this list is Sea And Sun.
The standout drifter is Poppeye.


At Newmarket, the market seems notably positive on Hidden Force, Sovereign Spell, Ironwill, and Maho Bay.
The more concerning Newmarket negatives are Thursday Girl, Amadeus Mozart, Physique, and Hawk Mountain.
 
Update

Market report for 2026-04-16​

This looks like a proper live-money picture now, especially with the 0 to 60 minutes runners included.

Top positive market signals​

1. Song Of The Clyde​

Race: Newmarket, 6f Hcap
Minutes to off: 0
Price: 5.30
NetMoveScore: 102.73
Move: Strong Steam
Confidence: High
This is one of the standout moves in the whole file. The horse has shortened strongly late, with:
  • 1m change: -7.02%
  • 10m change: -17.19%
  • Visible share change: +6.05
  • Matched change: 70549.00
That is a very strong late market push in a very high liquidity race. Clear Back Watch.

2. Sea And Sun​

Race: Ripon, 1m3f Nov Stks
Minutes to off: 60
Price: 5.60
NetMoveScore: 101.43
Move: Strong Steam
Confidence: High
Still one of the strongest steamers on the card. Big support:
  • 5m/10m change: -12.50%
  • Visible share change: +19.35
Very solid positive signal.

3. Advertised​

Race: Newmarket, 6f Hcap
Minutes to off: 0
Price: 15.50
NetMoveScore: 76.46
Move: Strong Steam
Confidence: High
Interesting outsider move. Not as explosive as Song Of The Clyde, but still strong:
  • 5m change: -6.06%
  • visible share rising
  • very strong market volume behind the move
Looks like a genuine live outsider support angle.

4. Vega Storm​

Race: Ripon, 6f Nov Stks
Minutes to off: 3
Price: 5.80
NetMoveScore: 79.75
Move: Strong Steam
Confidence: High
Very good late steam:
  • 1m change: -6.45%
  • 5m change: -12.12%
  • 10m change: -14.71%
A strong mover close to the off in a high-liquidity race.

5. Glistening Nights​

Race: Ripon, 1m2f Hcap
Minutes to off: 256
Price: 22.00
NetMoveScore: 78.03
Move: Strong Steam
Confidence: High
Big positive move from a bigger price. Still one of the better back-watch profiles in the data.

6. Maho Bay​

Race: Newmarket, 1m2f Nov Stks
Minutes to off: 285
Price: 2.10
NetMoveScore: 69.93
Move: Strong Steam
Confidence: High
Solid support for a short one. Not a dramatic late smash, but a firm positive signal.

7. Hidden Force​

Race: Newmarket, 1m Grp 3
Minutes to off: 215
Price: 3.30
NetMoveScore: 68.06
Move: Strong Steam
Confidence: High
Still one of the stronger Newmarket signals in a quality market.

Top negative market signals​

1. Thursday Girl​

Race: Newmarket, 7f Mdn Stks
Minutes to off: 250
Price: 6.80
NetMoveScore: -83.90
Move: Strong Drift
Confidence: High
This remains the clearest negative in the file. Easy Lay Watch.

2. Amadeus Mozart​

Race: Newmarket, 1m2f Nov Stks
Minutes to off: 285
Price: 4.30
NetMoveScore: -55.56
Move: Strong Drift
Confidence: High
A notable drift despite having a big visible share. Negative market signal.

3. Sir William​

Race: Ripon, 1m2f Hcap
Minutes to off: 256
Price: 10.00
NetMoveScore: -50.97
Move: Strong Drift
Confidence: High
A proper negative move. Easy lay-watch type.

4. Portcullis​

Race: Newmarket, 1m Mdn Stks
Minutes to off: 30
Price: 6.40
NetMoveScore: -42.56
Move: Strong Drift
Confidence: High
This is worth noting because it is a much later signal than some of the earlier drifters. Price drifted:
  • 1m/5m/10m: +8.47%
That is a meaningful negative late move.

5. Physique​

Race: Newmarket, 7f Hcap
Minutes to off: 320
Price: 8.60
NetMoveScore: -41.47
Move: Strong Drift
Confidence: High
Another clear negative profile.

6. Black Hawk Eagle​

Race: Hereford, 2m5f Hcap Chs
Minutes to off: 360
Price: 3.00
NetMoveScore: -31.78
Move: Strong Drift
Confidence: High
Negative chase signal.

7. Hawk Mountain​

Race: Newmarket, 1m Grp 3
Minutes to off: 215
Price: 2.70
NetMoveScore: -31.76
Move: Strong Drift
Confidence: High
Not what you want to see for one near the head of the market.

Best late money signals​

These are the ones I’d trust most because they are close to the off and in decent liquidity:

Best late back-watch runners​

  • Song Of The Clyde — strongest late move in the sample
  • Advertised — late outsider support
  • Vega Storm — strong late Ripon move
  • Sea And Sun — strong medium-timed move
  • North Beach — decent support at 30 mins, NetMoveScore 55.31
  • Crown Knott — solid support at 30 mins, NetMoveScore 23.93

Best late lay-watch runners​

  • Portcullis — bad late drift
  • Treanmor — mild negative, NetMoveScore -10.79
  • Thursday Girl — strong overall drift
  • Hassaleh — negative despite market prominence
  • Time For Sandals — negative profile remains

Race-by-race view​

Newmarket, 6f Hcap​

Most interesting race in the file now.
  • Song Of The Clyde: strongest positive signal
  • Advertised: also positive
  • Treanmor: weak negative
This looks like a race where the market has really converged on Song Of The Clyde, with Advertised also attracting support.

Ripon, 6f Nov Stks​

Positive overall race for:
  • Vega Storm
  • Agric Ranger
  • The Untamed
  • Milford Grange
That is unusual because several are showing positive numbers, but the strongest proper signal looks to be Vega Storm.
The Untamed also has a very strong visible share at 52.26%, so the market clearly respects it.

Newmarket, 1m Mdn Stks​

  • North Beach: best positive move
  • Crown Knott: steady support
  • Portcullis: clear negative
  • Santushti: weak positive only
This market seems to be leaning away from Portcullis and more toward North Beach.

Ripon, 1m3f Nov Stks​

  • Sea And Sun: standout positive
  • The earlier Poppeye negative isn’t in this update, so the main story here is simply strong support for Sea And Sun.

Best of the card​

Strongest back-watch​

  1. Song Of The Clyde
  2. Sea And Sun
  3. Vega Storm
  4. Glistening Nights
  5. Advertised
  6. Maho Bay
  7. Hidden Force

Strongest lay-watch​

  1. Thursday Girl
  2. Amadeus Mozart
  3. Sir William
  4. Portcullis
  5. Physique
  6. Black Hawk Eagle
  7. Hawk Mountain

Betting-style summary​

The biggest change from the earlier picture is Song Of The Clyde. That is now the standout market move in the whole set, and because it is 0 minutes to off in a very high liquidity Newmarket race, it carries far more weight than a lot of the earlier signals.
The other big positives remain Sea And Sun, Vega Storm, Glistening Nights, Maho Bay, and Hidden Force.
On the negative side, Thursday Girl is still the worst profile, with Amadeus Mozart, Sir William, and now Portcullis also looking weak.
If you want, I can next turn this into a neat pro-style table with columns:
Race | Runner | Signal | Confidence | Betting note.
 
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