Holty10
Colt
dlinbgrove I wondered that too. I've used their figures before. It seems to me it would be a very tough thing to work out manually.
Maybe pos in the odds market v finishing position?
Sounds like a lot of manual checking though!
How to start
- Thread starter twmills
- Start date
dlinbgrove I wondered that too. I've used their figures before. It seems to me it would be a very tough thing to work out manually.
Maybe pos in the odds market v finishing position?
Sounds like a lot of manual checking though!
Chesham
Sire
Chesham can you please tell in what edition book he explained the above method .would like to read up on it.
thanks tonytench
Hi Tony
Jib did not write any books and it was on another Forum some years back, where he outlined his method at that time. He did post selections Pre Race and there were some big priced winners as he was often selecting horse that had good back form, that was finally dropping into a race where it outclassed the other runners. You can see from the example of the horse he used over a number of races until it was dropped to win, that it can be a lengthy process but could be rewarding. Jib was on the Gummy VDW Thread but was not a fan of VDW and also on the Peach VDW Forum.
I think Jib thought VDW had over egged himself and was sceptical of the methods and claims, which was not surprising as most on those Forums could talk up a good case for understanding VDW but not live up to the claims when posting pre race selections. There were also those who after timed selections, claiming that they were from using the VDW Methodology. Lee posted VDW Pre Race selection on the Gummy Forum and had a decent strike rate and
mtoto has always posted VDW selections pre race as well, whichever Forum he has been on. The only thing with VDW is that everyone has a different take on the Methodology which is why VDW Threads can end in major fall outs.
stedz
Yearling
thank you chesham, I just ordered the book on your advice. I've been backing horses for a few years now but I'm a bit hit and miss so decided to go back to beginning. I've also started doing a bit of research on van Der Wheil, so ordered systematic betting, the only title I could find. I contacted browzers but they haven't got any. I understand I should be starting with the golden years , the ultimate and the vdw way, then systematic betting - any advice appreciated. Thanks, then again should I just digest braddock's as best I can?
gerry
Mare
There is one part not mentioned on here and it is well being of horse before race and it is likely the most important factor in any horse race,
even the mood of horse can make all the form in the world mean nothing on day of race.
But unfortuanatly we do not have the data on that before a given race hence why vdw suggested last couple races important, and likely give a edge on the probability of it being ok.
But that in the main does attract you to the front of market and also why it can be interesting when one with no current form can be intereting when at top of market showing possible well being.
But then you can look at ratings and see from one race to next there all over place from good to shocking so why would that happen and answer is because horses are not machines and from niggling injurys to moods can be of form
then spring right back to form days or weeks later, and why there is no hidden secret to golden goose.
So that is why were not trying to back every race and every winner just the races where we can see horses coming to form or in form or running at track it likes or finally getting its ground or right distance or trainer having good time.
Thats why were not looking for golden goose were looking for golden nugget of a race where we see some thing that might make horse run well in race and the longer it has been to that horses form the bigger price it will be.
But also the longer away it was the more unsure we are of its well being so more of a risk taken.
So you can go by numbers what it might do is give you a more consistant horse with possible less moods and niggles but will give you shorter prices.
Or go for little hidden nuggets where there is far more value but more risk of it working.
What i would suggest is never bet in race with no form.
never bet in race with no good form.
never bet in race where all maidens.
never bet in race where your strong like horse has trainer compleatly out of form.
never bet in race where your strong fancy has never acted on severe ground.
never bet where your liked horse has to do something way above its best IE :weight class distance.
never bet horse way to inconsistant.
So we are looking for race first , then form for that race,form for that ground,form for that class,form for that track of some sort, trainer not in bad form, horses in form or horses out of form but with honest reasoning why.
even the mood of horse can make all the form in the world mean nothing on day of race.
But unfortuanatly we do not have the data on that before a given race hence why vdw suggested last couple races important, and likely give a edge on the probability of it being ok.
But that in the main does attract you to the front of market and also why it can be interesting when one with no current form can be intereting when at top of market showing possible well being.
But then you can look at ratings and see from one race to next there all over place from good to shocking so why would that happen and answer is because horses are not machines and from niggling injurys to moods can be of form
then spring right back to form days or weeks later, and why there is no hidden secret to golden goose.
So that is why were not trying to back every race and every winner just the races where we can see horses coming to form or in form or running at track it likes or finally getting its ground or right distance or trainer having good time.
Thats why were not looking for golden goose were looking for golden nugget of a race where we see some thing that might make horse run well in race and the longer it has been to that horses form the bigger price it will be.
But also the longer away it was the more unsure we are of its well being so more of a risk taken.
So you can go by numbers what it might do is give you a more consistant horse with possible less moods and niggles but will give you shorter prices.
Or go for little hidden nuggets where there is far more value but more risk of it working.
What i would suggest is never bet in race with no form.
never bet in race with no good form.
never bet in race where all maidens.
never bet in race where your strong like horse has trainer compleatly out of form.
never bet in race where your strong fancy has never acted on severe ground.
never bet where your liked horse has to do something way above its best IE :weight class distance.
never bet horse way to inconsistant.
So we are looking for race first , then form for that race,form for that ground,form for that class,form for that track of some sort, trainer not in bad form, horses in form or horses out of form but with honest reasoning why.
markfinn
Sire
The camera info - in your post - I have never read that before - very good
mick
Sire
For anyone wishing to create there own ratings ( which imo is a worthwhile objective ) my advise would be to first obtain an understanding of how the BHA Handicappers think and work, and there is plenty of info on there web site concerning this.
gerry makes a good point above Re how we use what we have is as important as the worth of our ratings. Never any easy answers but then again if there was there would be no value in the markets.
gerry makes a good point above Re how we use what we have is as important as the worth of our ratings. Never any easy answers but then again if there was there would be no value in the markets.