• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

How best to read form ?

"the average OR is a huge factor now into my considerations."

For me, the major advantage we have compared with the VDW years is the ready availability of ORs, T tacker, and I too use the average OR extensively as (usually) a better way of assessing the strength of a field than VDW's. Not that I don't use his, too.

I expect what what you say about trainers is right, though never having met one I have no first hand knowledge.

I am sure you weren't unique in dismissing VDW's letters at the time. His claims were extraordinary and as far as is known he never provided any proof.
 
JennyK said:
"the average OR is a huge factor now into my considerations."

For me, the major advantage we have compared with the VDW years is the ready availability of ORs, T tacker, and I too use the average OR extensively as (usually) a better way of assessing the strength of a field than VDW's. Not that I don't use his, too.

I expect what what you say about trainers is right, though never having met one I have no first hand knowledge.

I am sure you weren't unique in dismissing VDW's letters at the time. His claims were extraordinary and as far as is known he never provided any proof.
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This might not work but i was often overwhelmed by what ARAZI91 ARAZI91 would show me....

I'm still in the process of reading it.
 
Form is form and intent is something else - we need to to understand the difference
1 . size of prize money, is it worth winning to the owners

2. Juvenile races , key is stud or possible breeding valuations

We should - never forget on the other side of the rails this is a huge business not a hobby so in those races follow the best

For me it’s the lower handicaps D & E that offer best opportunities on a weekly basis

Time strapped or just limited interest , from the divide Ascot to Bath there is enough scope to follow racing or betting opportunities , specialise is the key that most punters forget , normal punters ( despite all the bookmakers paid for free info ) just cannot cover all races with any regard of success

Some do follow or allow the market to influence their decisions, personally I don’t but equally I don’t claim to have found a short priced favs when they win

End of the day punting is all about opinions - not egos
 
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How best to read form. ? My answer would be to seek different ways to the majority, you do not need exclusive or original but rather minority thinking. As an example imo a good bet needs to contain some negatives to chance and the art is to find racing reasons to negate or justify them which gives you the confidence to still back the horse when the majority of form readers will dismiss and swerve it. I call these VE's Valid Excuses and while my use of and interpretation of same is frequently wrong i do get it right on balance which enables backing horses at high avg odds some of which win and pay for the losers with what remains amounting to a worthwhile long term earn.

I feel that on balance punters and bookmaker odds compilers are more able or better informed now than used to be the case so taking advantage of the above means extra work producing fewer bets but providing the end product remains then i feel OK with this. My 2025 tally currently stands at Bets 23 : Lsp 23pts : Roi 100% all where posted pre race with reasoning on another section of this forum, not ego but rather proofing the pudding. I spent many hours every day " form reading " in order to find those 23 bets plenty of whom still messed on me by losing.!

The posh description for the above is contrarian thinking and given the time and tenacity most backers could acquire the habit indeed i am sure many already do. When reading form beware the easy find and take nothing at face value would be my hard earned advice. Implementing this attitude can do your nut in but at least its seldom boring. :)
 
tacker said:
This might not work but i was often overwhelmed by what @
ARAZI91
ARAZI91 would show me....
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The basic rating which he first identifies works very well. The second part with the weight is the piece de resistance.
 
I was just reading a story about why lesser tennis tournaments had match fixing, And the player said the smaller the tournament with prize money the more likely fixing going on as the money not as important.
Well you could say the same about horse racing the prize money is so poor at the bottom level that the lower you go the more likely none triers
and you don't really get it right till you go to really top value races.
Which would make complete sense in any sport really.
So in this day and age no matter how you look at it and this is the biggest point MONEY talks in all walks of life sadly i know but fact.
So when you throw everything else out the window surely the two most important things now in form study wither we like it or not are prize money and gambles.
I know its hard to adjust our thinking to reading form and just not think this horse hasnt got the best form to the one we fancy but surely if money coming for some thing against your fancy you must start to worry some what.
There might be no knowing reason you see in it but its there staring you in the face gamble and if yours is drifting the more it drifts i feel the more you should be worried.
I know people will say but drifters win horse races and gambles get beat regular, But i would say regular is strong word but if you switched that round other way, drifters get beat and gambles win you could use a lot stronger word than regular now especially in higher class races.
 
Outlander said:
T tacker I know markfinn markfinn has mentioned the new sectional offering from Proform and TPD, really need to be a millionaire to afford all that each month, but I read somewhere that they sectionally uplifted that York Dante winner over 20lb for an exceptional final furlong on debut.
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Proform cost ? It’s about value to the user - it’s a huge tool with many different parts that I doubt many use or even understand, it’s a bit like the Sky subscription in that if you want sport then you have to pay for it all. I really only use the “system builder “ in the form book to create race cards and interrogate past form - now we sectionals inc (at an extra cost ) this is optional and I haven’t had chance to use it yet , but I will do.
Actual systems I don’t use but have experimented with - the web site I don’t use , but I would bet that a lot of subscribers don’t use anything else as it’s very good.

They have loads of Preformed Proform original ratings if that’s what members want to use . You can watch replays from within the program , they have a deal with Tote for enhanced odds , It’s endless really & you could spend all day and night 7 days a week on it, sure that some do so it’s a really minimal cost per hour to some . I only look at a race a day and over the period the cost of subscription and time spent are easily recoverable .
 
gerry said:
I was just reading a story about why lesser tennis tournaments had match fixing, And the player said the smaller the tournament with prize money the more likely fixing going on as the money not as important.
Well you could say the same about horse racing the prize money is so poor at the bottom level that the lower you go the more likely none triers
and you don't really get it right till you go to really top value races.
Which would make complete sense in any sport really.
So in this day and age no matter how you look at it and this is the biggest point MONEY talks in all walks of life sadly i know but fact.
So when you throw everything else out the window surely the two most important things now in form study wither we like it or not are prize money and gambles.
I know its hard to adjust our thinking to reading form and just not think this horse hasnt got the best form to the one we fancy but surely if money coming for some thing against your fancy you must start to worry some what.
There might be no knowing reason you see in it but its there staring you in the face gamble and if yours is drifting the more it drifts i feel the more you should be worried.
I know people will say but drifters win horse races and gambles get beat regular, But i would say regular is strong word but if you switched that round other way, drifters get beat and gambles win you could use a lot stronger word than regular now especially in higher class races.
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" When is the Handbrake Off " !! My good mate at work part owns horses with J Parr and he always quotes that to me when i start talking about Ratings etc " Is there a Handbrake Off Rating " ? To muddy the waters he tells me that J Parr has owners that just love a day out and dont overly care if the horse wins or not , a nice evening out at Windsor inviting all their mates . This infuriates J Parr as he is trying to expand and attract new owners and "Winners " are the name of the game for him
 
As pointed out the lower prize money will not always be the target so we are left trying to find who is racing with intent on the day I would also add there is as much to learn about courses ,jockeys , trainers and so often overlooked is the “Ownership” of the horses rather than the horses actual form.

They all have some form it’s trying to establish the tilting days
 
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Over the years some of my best Form finds have come off the back of a losing bet and my poste mortem examination seeking to understand where i had gone wrong. I think in this game we are all learners and occasionally being prepared to accept this can turn todays loss into future gains. This self honest questioning works in many different ways including enabling swerving losers or overcoming a long held bias which leads to backing some additional winners.

Any changes to my MO are only implemented after much thought and investigation but a more recent example which has proved a good move is after many years overcoming ( in part ) my prejudice against horses under large physical weights. I used to take the easy out and would not back any horse carrying more than 9-4 and fair dues this worked well enough on balance but around four years ago i began to notice an increase in top rates off my ratings winning with 9-5 > .

As ever i thought just a blip but i paper proofed the future examples and the trend continued. This triggered a renewed interest into seeking and identifying the ins and outs of WCA Weight Carrying Ability and using my findings from this as a required proven filter i finally started allowing myself to back some of those in the 9-5 > 9-13 range which to date has proved a profitable move.

I still feel unable to bet those in the 10-0 > 10-4 range but maintain an open mind and who knows the future. At present regardless of any positive findings i do not feel comfortable about risking my wedge on these 10-0 plus horses and comfort zones are important and also need to be accommodated as part of the whole, or at least this has been my experience.
 
simon boardman said:
Only certain people can see it i believe ...... clicked on it it myself and you get this ... "You do not have permission to view this page or perform this action " . No problem with that i might add !
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Me too Simon and likewise no problem. I did use to enjoy interacting with ARAZI91 ARAZI91 on other parts of this forum and hope he is well. As i recall besides having advanced knowledge of the game he also had a good sense of humor when the banter was flying. :)
 
mick said:
Over the years some of my best Form finds have come off the back of a losing bet and my poste mortem examination seeking to understand where i had gone wrong. I think in this game we are all learners and occasionally being prepared to accept this can turn todays loss into future gains. This self honest questioning works in many different ways including enabling swerving losers or overcoming a long held bias which leads to backing some additional winners.

Any changes to my MO are only implemented after much thought and investigation but a more recent example which has proved a good move is after many years overcoming ( in part ) my prejudice against horses under large physical weights. I used to take the easy out and would not back any horse carrying more than 9-4 and fair dues this worked well enough on balance but around four years ago i began to notice an increase in top rates off my ratings winning with 9-5 > .

As ever i thought just a blip but i paper proofed the future examples and the trend continued. This triggered a renewed interest into seeking and identifying the ins and outs of WCA Weight Carrying Ability and using my findings from this as a required proven filter i finally started allowing myself to back some of those in the 9-5 > 9-13 range which to date has proved a profitable move.

I still feel unable to bet those in the 10-0 > 10-4 range but maintain an open mind and who knows the future. At present regardless of any positive findings i do not feel comfortable about risking my wedge on these 10-0 plus horses and comfort zones are important and also need to be accommodated as part of the whole, or at least this has been my experience.
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Everyone who has done proper studies in this reckons more weight the better, they have a class edge, I haven’t churned the data like them, but I have a belief from creating ratings that the reason they have a class edge is not necessarily that they are better horses by definition(higher OR in most cases), although a factor I think the real reason is the BHA scale is too narrow a range and for every pound they are giving away they should be giving between 1.2 and 1.4 pounds away, of course this is related to OR and sometimes higher rated young horses have lower weights thats another reason those horses are advantaged also they have the class edge.
 
mick said:
Me too Simon and likewise no problem. I did use to enjoy interacting with ARAZI91 ARAZI91 on other parts of this forum and hope he is well. As i recall besides having advanced knowledge of the game he also had a good sense of humor when the banter was flying. :)
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ARAZI91 ARAZI91 shared high level knowledge most of which I didn’t understand but was fascinated by, a man would be dangerous with just 10% of his skills.
 
Outlander said:
Everyone who has done proper studies in this reckons more weight the better.
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I guess this depends on who and what " proper studies " mean. ? Stat based findings can be helpful but taken at face value also misleading. I prefer to look at the back form of individual horses and the circumstances they succeed or failed under a big physical weight.
 
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