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Horses with chance.

gerry said:
I tried place only betting today on the mainly first four market couple first three markets and one first two market.
I got 11 place bets up from 13 races only 2 beat and at first it looks really good.
With a 50 percent profit on the day you would take that every day and be delighted.
And i would take a slow enjoyable build of profit every day with small wins.

But here is my main worry although was first 4 market mainly and every chance i could get alot up studying form and 50 percent sounds good it would only have took 2 or 3 more to not place to take all the profit away think on the day depends the races ofcourse that 8 out of 13 would have been touch and go to be even for day.
All the ticks next to my winning bets look good but i would have classified 11 as very good day and suppose 50 percent was but is it realistic i am not sure.
Maybe poor racing was weak odds today and you could do profit in higher odds races what do people think.
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Every day, that we can achieve our goal, to end the day over or even on the break even line - is a realistic aim - we haven’t got any inside / bent help - the odds are stacked well above against the day to day punters than those that the market shows us.
There is a reason why you hear low figs annual profit figs quoted by pro punters.

I know some have better far better ROI but they are not betting multiple times every day.

EDITED

Just listening to the Barstewards podcast and they were discussing min acceptable profit margins - Lee stated “ I want to be over 6% profit or it’s a no bet “ which is what he can achieve in other forms of investing - would not be for me but who am I to say what others do with their hard earned,
 
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gerry gerry

The best bet I spotted last week was Heathcliff on Wednesday evening about whom I emailed my racing friend in the morning as follows:

"We are at the theatre tonight, so I won’t be around for the prices before the off. If I were, and if an ew price was available on Heathcliff, I’d be all over him. But at the current price a win single doesn’t look value: will he be able to show the necessary improvement, and will one of the older, seemingly high-class horses, come good? I think Heathcliff is likely to be able to show the necessary improvement but not for me at around 2/1to 5/2."

On returning late in the evening my friend had emailed me as follows:

"I hope you enjoyed the theatre trip. I'm writing shortly after the 7pm race, which was both interesting and frustrating.... Heathcliffe drifted to a whopping 7+ on Betfair near the off. He looked fine in the paddock, so it must just have been late support for Cajetan, Kings Lynn and Aramis Grey which caused the drift. Anyway, at those odds he was a good each way price, particularly as he looked to have far more in his favour than those three rivals; so, I duly backed him win and place.

The frustration came at the finish, when he looked sure to win, only to be beaten a neck by one of those unexposed newly 4-year-olds who we couldn't evaluate on form or ability... You'd hope the market would guide, but 'they' didn't fancy her, so it's a bit annoying from my point of view to only end up with a tiny profit from the place."

I've been pondering this since, as the basics - a strong-looking selection at a price well below that at which I am normally willing to bet (at least he was up to the last few minutes in Heathcliff's case) who gets beaten by one that, prior to the race seemed unlikely - is far from uncommon. So far, my strategy with such selections has been to do what I would have done with Heathcliff but for not being around - wait and see how the market moves and back ew if the place price covers the win loss if the horse gets beaten. But I am increasingly thinking that with such horses a place only strategy may be the answer, as then (assuming one's selection is indeed fairly solid), one makes a profit whether it wins or, as with Heathcliff, gets beaten by something (at least for me) wholly unexpected.

It reminds me of a paragraph in one of P Selby's ("Marvex") booklets:

"The writer knew of one such [professional backer] who laying out £50 a race one afternoon at Salisbury in June 1945 received dividends of 2/6, 2/1, 2/3, 2/2, 3/6, 3/9 or a return of £106 5s 0d. Had the horses been backed win, the loss would have been £137 10s 0d, while had he put £25 each way on each of the six his loss would have been £15 12s 6d. He was quite satisfied with his afternoon's work, yet the backer betting in half sovereigns would have considered the profit of £1 1s 3d not worth the candle."

Thus your idea of place only seems to me to have a lot going for it, assuming of course one remains rigorous in analysing the races. With lower prices horses which don't feel like value win only, and when there is no clear book, a place only strategy looks potentially worthwhile.
 
I just done a check on saturday and would have had 8 from 13 up in place markets although impossible to be accurate on odds now it looks like i would have broke even on saturday maybe tiny profit.
That goes with what i thought from today with 8 from 13 but concidering i only got 2 winners on saturday and had loss i would have took break even day.
There is a differance also in studying form to get place horses instead of winning bets which might surprise some but you do look for more consistancy for one thing along with other things .
 
Thats what i was thinking JennyK JennyK i seem to have a way of picking horses who run really well but the amount of times the get undone by one you could not have fancied in the race is uncanny, obvious there is dark horses who are laid out we dont get privy to and they in the main likely do turn our days into lossing ones.
Just like saturday alot of mine run well but got out done with horses i didnt fancy and to be fair acouple fell which is nightmare in jump racing anyway as that can really knock your place bet sideways.
Could be to stick to just jump hurdle races and flat i do have 4 chasers ear marked today so i will pay attention to them see what happens.
I am going to give it ago today again see if there is profit to be made .
I think the key is to see how bad days go which should not show much loss hopefully and will be the tell sign if it is worth it.
 
I think Delboy99 Delboy99's approach as per his auto bet soccer thread is relevant here, gerry gerry.

In case you haven't looked at it, the strategy seems clear - find a team (almost anywhere in the world) likely to win a home match and back it, always I think at odds on, to win £5. Provided overall one can make two winning bets for every loser, the profit increases steadily over time. I don't know when he started his current bank, but it nearly shows an 80 point profit using the £5 as a point. The bets I've noticed seem to be no lower than 1.5, seldom close to 2.0, with the majority probably in the 1.7-1.8 range.

Frankly I would be very disappointed if, over time, I couldn't find at least two placing "Heathcliffs" out of three. Accepting that with the kind of horses where I would consider place only - under about 5/1 - if one had a floor of 1.5, I suspect most would be in the middle of the range 1.5 to 2.0 and thus comparable to Delboy99's soccer bets, and two out of three should lead to a decent profit over time.
 
gerry said:
After continued thought on horse racing there is a few things i have came to the conclusion are more important and others.
I know we all have good idea of what to look for when sudying form, But we all struggle at times with what is the most important factors to place in our study.
I think that class is without doubt is what seperates one horse from other, and thats what we can use to seperate some kind of good form with other good form the class makes them differant.
Then we have consistancy that how often can one horse keep running to same level where as some just run up and down and are hard to catch right.
But along with consistancy we have the current up to date form and i think this is where there might be more attention needed.
As we tend to look at maybe the last three races and think this is current form and we decide if consistant or not and should we forgive last bad run.
This is where i think we make most mistakes because when you relise that horses take breaks of anything up to a month off between races is there third last race or even there second last race current form when it could be 2 or 3 months ago.
So maybe current form is anything in last 30 days max and even that isnt current form in reality but its what we have in horse racing.
So consistancy is a longer period analysing that can give you confidence it could produce again and not in forgivness of a poor last run.
Then you have the daily changing in going which is really important as the horse could have run a month ago in compleatly differant going and that should be checked for sure.
Then we have the big question of horses coming up the ranks with little racing are they improvers or not which just clouds every thing.
Well i thought of this to and what i keep going back to is the novices at cheltenham for instance.
We see these races before they are run and they are full of winners and we get excited what a race but the reality is there usually not very good at all most of them and thats proves year after year.
So infact most horses we put to much credit on them improving when infact there just beating nothing really.
And good solid better class horses with form in the book will more likely to run there race than so called dark horses.
So i would say dont underestimate last run could be the most crucial thing in racing.
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Nice post gerry gerry , it's always worth questioning what we mean by "form" and i suspect it means very different things to many punters, frankly there are so many different factors to be taken into consideration these days with technology at the forefront that any kind of studying is in danger of becoming a full time job.
Your point about consistency is very relevant and very often becomes a matter of judgement, you correctly point out that a certain amount of time between a horses last race might be indicative of it's present form depending on how many days since it ran, it therefore follows that it's last 3 runs need to be judged with even greater care, to be honest you could write many chapters on that subject alone but that's more of a job for authors rather that a quick response on a forum.

HORSES COMING UP THE RANKS ?
Again there's a hell of a lot of judgement involved often via 3yr olds but as you question above whether or not they are properly improving ?
Arazi has done quite a bit of research on the subject but that doesn't make it any easier to answer but personally i'm of the belief that horses making their handicap debut is where one might be able to find something we like to call "well in", again never easy but it does make the puzzle that little more entertaining imo, in many ways i suppose we're looking for a horse we might argue is a good few pounds better than it's present mark ? is it enough to say it without trying to demonstrate why ? I don't believe so but there's only ever going to be one way of proving it.
 
Yeah i seen delboys JennyK JennyK and thats what i worked it out at 2 out of 3 would show small profits in place betting if we stuck to first three i think would break even or slight loss sticking to first 4 so far i have been not excepting less than 1.5 odds which is the 2 to 3 bets for breaking even .
But with most round the 1.7 mark there little profits but i am sure that just the week racing once on to weekend could be better odds to make profit.
So far today i have showed 3 percent profit over jumps racing this after noon and i did make a couple errors and already got first two in place tonight at all weather so hopefully although small profit day.
 
Well managed to get it up to 22 percent profit on the day with 13 from 18 bets which is about right for 2 from 3 and with odds just over 1.5 can be profitable.
I think the percentage of places might go down on busy saturdays but the odds up so possible to be closer to 2 in 4 could be ok.
But its interesting to have alot of bets and every one is like a poker bet where there all crucial to get profit up.
 
A strategy I often employ (most days) but not on all bets, is a 25/75 % or 20/80 % win/place ratio, depending on prices.

This way if the horse wins the profit is better, if it is placed a profit is also made.

I have a friend who is a successful punter, who is happy with 4% roi, and does very well, and finds it easy to achieve long term, relatively stress free and most importantly worthwhile.
 
I think its not as easy to go for win and place as usually my place would just break me even so would need get couple at least winners maybe 3 or 4 and would make the theory not work.
I think if you can get any percentage profit any day its worth it and let bank help build up your stakes to show more profit but in slow manner.
Things are going through my head just now is betting no more than 20 percent of your whole bank on any given day.
So say you had 15 horses to bet before a race is run you know your not betting more than 1.3 percent per race.
Hopefully you then get to a stage that once you reach a value thats keeping you happy you can stick to that money value no matter how your doing.
The worst you can ever do is loss 20 percent of bank and thats not one horse placing which would be near on impossible.
All good in theory but still have to be getting them placed and alot to show steady profit.
I have 13 horses today for place i will let know many place and percent of loss or win at end of day.
 
There are many ways to skin a cat Gerry, 13/15 bets daily would be way to much for me,but it's all about making a profit, and as Warren Buffet once famously said

"nobody wants to get rich slow".
 
Speaking of percentages, there will be many who think 20% about Bayern Munich to beat Glasgow Celtic is a very good opportunity.
 
Well in that game T Thomas i thought celtic with three goal start was pretty good at 75 % and looks better now but still not count my chickens yet.
 
Well after what i thought was poor start with some mistakes made by me i ended up with 8 from 13 places which gave me tiny 3% profit.
So does feel like a break even day really but i think tiny profits is still ok when you feel you made bad mistakes.
my main mistakes where races with 6 or less runners 3 of those races where my unplaced out of 5.
And i new not to bet in less than 3 places so was a bad error on my part for sure.
 
Have picked 10 place bets for today but going to change two things to see how the profit or loss goes.
I am going to make it first three places at all times .
So that leaves out first four places where odds can be to short and also first two places where it gets a little tighter.
And although betting with small stakes if i cant get first three places i wount be betting the race.
My style for picking them isnt changing so will see how the day goes.
 
I cant believe the main mistake i made today on picking my horses i think was just not concintrating on main thing and had dreadfull start today.
but fought back and now need mesafi to place first three in the 7 30 to just break even again today.
But learning the slight change thats needed for placing to be more accurate.
 
Well i am pleased with not lossing money in what i could call poor day.
But i am satisfied that its just a build up of form like when backing winners you see the mistakes so clear and just need make sure you have most things right and dont think getting place is any easier than backing winners.
Because the prices are shorter you have to be even if possible more accurate with your selections and i think the mistake you can make is run before you can walk.
Its not been even a week and i have noticed the changes already i think it is same principals but just in differant order.
A bit like VDW said his main points are very valuable but its understanding why and what formula you need have in place to make sense of it all.
 
I have to agree Gerry and there can be a tendency to get sloppy, by saying I think this will place etc.

I try to work by the rule that I believe my place bet will/should win, otherwise one can end up doing a lot of place bets.
 
Giving one exsample of a horse for place who is rated the bottom of my horses for place today yet i have it wrote down as bet is LOVE TRUE in the 4 45 huntingdon.
After i picked my horses out and gave them a rating of chance this was only rated 3 which is poor out of 10.
So why did it get such a poor rating well it fell last time out when going easily but that was 2 out so would it have had that finish it looked like going to have.
It was its first try at 2 and half miles but looked was going to suit or was it because it wore first time tounge tie, Then again it looked like improver in race before so might be finding its self, it did stay on round this track last year so has that going for it trainer going well too.
I think because it fell it lost alot of its points to get better rating like finishing well.
So possibly fallin has done a favour as long is ok from it.
Yet my highest rating horse for place over jumps also has had alot of unlucky running lately SUPERSTYLIN 4 35 lingfield got hampered and all sorts last time out at begining of race and unseated time before that so you could be exscused for leaving this dangerous animal for place for sure.
But before that had been running well and round here too and i think with se bowen back on it after that mishap last time will be well aware to get it right today.
Went tof ar last time anyway so i think would be more a run round and today will be ready to show more of its old self the gamble on it not helping a place bet but i think there small gains to be made from it today.
There is one who got a even higher rating tonight on all weather TOMORROWS DAY 8 00 newcastle very consistant like it here and i wish was drawn more in middle to near side thast only worry but should run decent place race i am sure.
 
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