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retriever

retriever

Stallion
Haha....Oh dear :doh:
I have a set of systems in my HRB that have managed, between them, to pick 7 of the 12 runners in the 8.10 Tipperary.....
Just for interest horse no.'s 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 11....... Should I pick one that wasn't selected?

I think my systems need tweaking a little.
Perhaps I'll see what the result is first and then do it.
Is that classed as 'back-fitting' ? 🆒
 
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Most of my systems have between 15 to 25 rules and many boxes ticked within those....currently around 40 odd systems for all codes of racing (although a bit heavy on bumper races - as above :))

Predicted points profit for the coming year, based on last years results, would yield 5,000+ points profit !!

But I am really not that silly!! Would be happy with a quarter of that.... :D

The way I see back-fitting is this......I ask myself the question 'If I put these rules in place a year ago could I expect the results (profits) I am seeing today on paper?'

My answer would be that rules revolving around Going, Distance, Class etc. could be deemed to be fairly constant from year to year (recent years of course) but statistics revolving around Trainers, Horses and Jockeys would be in total flux and would be non-rigid from year to year. Although then I come up against the notion that Trainers can be creatures of habit. I think the important thing here is sample size and finding the right balance.

I know HRB has been around for a while and I am probably 5 or 10 years too late to the party.....but I cannot find much discussion on it anywhere. I guess there is probably the premise that 'if it works and makes you a profit then best keep it under your hat'...….

Would appreciate any thoughts on achieving a balanced portfolio of systems.
 
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Have you looked here
www.theukbettingforum.co.uk

HorseRaceBase

An area to ask questions about and to discuss how to getthe best out of www.horseracebase.com. You must be a member of the forum to have access. It is free to join simply go to the home page of the forum and click on the sign in now button
www.theukbettingforum.co.uk www.theukbettingforum.co.uk
 
retriever said:
Most of my systems have between 15 to 25 rules
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retriever retriever , have a look around the forum , there's tons to read , but my first reaction as someone who's a confirmed 'systemite' is that your systems imo would be that most of your systems have between 10 and 20 too many rules just for starters.
 
retriever said:
Would appreciate any thoughts on achieving a balanced portfolio of systems.
Click to expand...

Forget things like 'going, distance, class etc' , also 'Trainers, Horses and Jockeys' - everyone is going to look at those sort of statistics.
Take a step back and try to work out the best scenario for a horse to win a particular race, come up with an idea and only then run it through HRB to see if your idea is profitable.
Come up with an idea first then see if it works , finding best possible fits to past results means you are backfitting .
 
ArkRoyal said:
Have you looked here
www.theukbettingforum.co.uk

HorseRaceBase

An area to ask questions about and to discuss how to getthe best out of www.horseracebase.com. You must be a member of the forum to have access. It is free to join simply go to the home page of the forum and click on the sign in now button
www.theukbettingforum.co.uk www.theukbettingforum.co.uk
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No, I haven't for some reason! - I guess I never associated HRB with 'Gambling' (geeks) lol…..thanks

In my defence, my Going, Distance, Class etc. are just 'trimmings' and a number of my systems are based on 'outside of the box' ideas that I have observed over the years. On subscribing to HRB over a month ago I was pleased that they showed some kind of a profit....once I worked out how to set up the angles and rules..

One, for example, without hopefully giving to much away, is that in sprint handicaps where a horse cannot get the opening it needs in the last furlong or half, sees the jockey easing up and dropping a few places. It's finishing position is therefore not a true reflection of it's ability, and with better luck in running, may get that break in it's next race or two etc.

One of my main problems (but it's not really a problem for me) is that I prefer to operate in the 10/1 region and I am fully aware of the betting bank I need to do that ie/. at £5 win stakes (I hate e/w betting) I would need to have a minimum bank of £700 preferably a £1000 to cope with the losing runs. dave58 dave58 Could I ask what price range you systems generally target?

Thanks for your thoughts guys...
 
dave58 said:
Take a step back and try to work out the best scenario for a horse to win a particular race, come up with an idea and only then run it through HRB to see if your idea is profitable.
Come up with an idea first then see if it works , finding best possible fits to past results means you are backfitting .
Click to expand...
Although i do not use systems i think the above is very good advice for any backer who seeks to go there own way. I do feel that for system rules or any "form find" then some racing reason is a need to justify. What has occurred in the past is irrelevant to your pocket, but if you have a system which is working now you also need to know why in order to feel confident that this should continue to be so in the future.
 
There's a bloke on another forum called GOUGHIE who every year does a couple of p/l threads with little rhyme or reason yet consistently produces profits from +200 to +350, very little notice is taken of what he's achieving and he himself admits he loses money betting, when asked why ?
he answers " he lacks discipline" .
 
retriever said:
No, I haven't for some reason! - I guess I never associated HRB with 'Gambling' (geeks) lol…..thanks

In my defence, my Going, Distance, Class etc. are just 'trimmings' and a number of my systems are based on 'outside of the box' ideas that I have observed over the years. On subscribing to HRB over a month ago I was pleased that they showed some kind of a profit....once I worked out how to set up the angles and rules..

One, for example, without hopefully giving to much away, is that in sprint handicaps where a horse cannot get the opening it needs in the last furlong or half, sees the jockey easing up and dropping a few places. It's finishing position is therefore not a true reflection of it's ability, and with better luck in running, may get that break in it's next race or two etc.

One of my main problems (but it's not really a problem for me) is that I prefer to operate in the 10/1 region and I am fully aware of the betting bank I need to do that ie/. at £5 win stakes (I hate e/w betting) I would need to have a minimum bank of £700 preferably a £1000 to cope with the losing runs. dave58 dave58 Could I ask what price range you systems generally target?

Thanks for your thoughts guys...
Click to expand...

Hi retriever retriever, maybe try running some of your systems through HRB without the trimmings and looking at the yearly results?
Re your question, I never target a particular price range, so the prices I back at vary enormously.
 
dave58 dave58 i recall you saying you use Level stakes for your system bets but how do place them EPs BF SP.? Have you done any audits to glean how they compare.?
 
dave58 dave58 Ok thanks. I will try without 'trimmings'.
I used SP as a filter, at first in my systems, then I switched to Forecast price (in order to 'fix' the selections) but I will try my angles without any price range attached.
 
mick mick Level stakes just means betting the same on each selection ie. £1 on each selection. (as apposed to variable stakes).
Unless I misread what you intended to say with your question to dave…...
 
retriever said:
dave58 dave58 Ok thanks. I will try without 'trimmings'.
I used SP as a filter, at first in my systems, then I switched to Forecast price (in order to 'fix' the selections) but I will try my angles without any price range attached.
Click to expand...
For someone who spends lots of time looking at form my bottom line is its all about the price. This does not always mean big prices because we all know that there are occasions when 5/2 could be considered very good value but 14/1 not so. I think this can only be done correctly via treating each as a one off and therefore the price factor might be difficult to cover via system rules so dave58 dave58 advise about this stands up imo.
 
retriever said:
mick mick Level stakes just means betting the same on each selection ie. £1 on each selection. (as apposed to variable stakes).
Unless I misread what you intended to say with your question to dave…...
Click to expand...
Yes i was asking where or how the level stake was placed. :)
 
mick said:
dave58 dave58 i recall you saying you use Level stakes for your system bets but how do place them EPs BF SP.? Have you done any audits to glean how they compare.?
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Hi mick mick, to be honest I haven't compared bet placement times. Probably due to the fact that I use somewhat different ways of finding them I find that the odds can change in either direction and the movements are quite unpredictable! I tend to place them on the previous evening to racing, mostly on Betfair as I only have a couple of bookies accounts left
 
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