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Hong Kong Speed Figures

not up to date with the thread , been trying to improve my ratings to account for each section for race tailored going allowance brought on by that 6/4/26 wind effected meeting.
Wednesday attached
 

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John Size frustrates me , he seems to be able to get perfectly healthy horses to run like millepedes with gout in trials and in races looking most of the time like they are finished then a Lazarus style revival you can’t take every run on merit, horses have cycles , newer form is more reliable than older form etc, when calculating day of race chance horses that have finished near last 3 latest efforts can’t just be forgiven if they have form 5 runs ago and treated like they are definitely going to spring back, that Must Go yesterday how do you rate that one, leading comtender if you ignore 3 or so pathetic efforts, how does Size make them look so bad, I remember him running Helios Express in a trial and the horse looking like it couldn’t raise a gallop tailed off, days later it’s storming into second behind Ka Ying Rising, how does he do it.
 
Outlander said:
John Size frustrates me , he seems to be able to get perfectly healthy horses to run like millepedes with gout in trials and in races looking most of the time like they are finished then a Lazarus style revival you can’t take every run on merit, horses have cycles , newer form is more reliable than older form etc, when calculating day of race chance horses that have finished near last 3 latest efforts can’t just be forgiven if they have form 5 runs ago and treated like they are definitely going to spring back, that Must Go yesterday how do you rate that one, leading comtender if you ignore 3 or so pathetic efforts, how does Size make them look so bad, I remember him running Helios Express in a trial and the horse looking like it couldn’t raise a gallop tailed off, days later it’s storming into second behind Ka Ying Rising, how does he do it.
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I hav'nt wagered nor kept data on the awt races, this year so didn't follow those races last night , if your running an mcsim, you need a stdev and you need to know what their upper and lower bounds are or have fast or slow they have run or may run, sometimes that the only way I feel they get into the market
 
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Outlander said:
John Size frustrates me , he seems to be able to get perfectly healthy horses to run like millepedes with gout in trials and in races looking most of the time like they are finished then a Lazarus style revival you can’t take every run on merit, horses have cycles , newer form is more reliable than older form etc, when calculating day of race chance horses that have finished near last 3 latest efforts can’t just be forgiven if they have form 5 runs ago and treated like they are definitely going to spring back, that Must Go yesterday how do you rate that one, leading comtender if you ignore 3 or so pathetic efforts, how does Size make them look so bad, I remember him running Helios Express in a trial and the horse looking like it couldn’t raise a gallop tailed off, days later it’s storming into second behind Ka Ying Rising, how does he do it.
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Try and make some excuses!

So if we forgive that always run badly on turf nowadays that takes 1 run.
Three ago put a fair bit of weight on - went up 20 pounds to a new record.
Last time comments a little off putting.
Steadied start, held up in rear, eased over 1f out

So the good things for yesterday, after timing!
A lowest Hong Kong rating for quite a while 3 less than last. Won off 64 last February then higher marks in March and perhaps best effort ever at this meeting last year won off 76 same conditions and grade just top weight instead of feather weight yesterday. Don't know if the jockey change makes a difference but Teetan off minimum weight has to be a good thing. Weight of horse up on previous run but below the big increase. Had a much better draw than last few but still from behind, slow start last time and Atzeni maybe an easy rife home with too much to do?

Always a good thing a horse that ran well same meeting last year and suppose way to profits find something to repeat what it has done before but do need a little faith as they drop down the handicap. Master training work though.
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woof43 said:
Last night racing at Sha Tin with the wind directions, It was telling the difference when the runners were running into the breeze as opposed, and how swiftly the markets were atuned to the prospect of them running slow a S1 or an S1 with some speed.

From Discord discussion.
jk138_ — 16/04/2026 9:26 AMThursday, 16 April 2026 9:26 AM
I don't know about you king, but the tempos the last month or 6 weeks in a lot of these races have been absolute walks. What's going on over
[9:27 AM]Thursday, 16 April 2026 9:27 AM
The track biases have been so more pronounced this season. Add in the wind as well and it's been up and in for a good few months
[9:27 AM]Thursday, 16 April 2026 9:27 AM
I presume when it's Ellis and the syndicates know it's an on speed horse or expected to lead, they know he walks. Same thing with Chung on Cruz
[9:28 AM]Thursday, 16 April 2026 9:28 AM
Chung did it last week on General Redwood

My reply in Discord.
It's always interesting to look at the those early tempo's at the race/horse level and meeting levels, i use a pace distortion figure at the horse level and a exp/act tv at the race level, the last two ST meetings S1 have been impacted by wind, normally the jockeys will not fight the track bias , and those that have fought the bias and won have been supported. the 12/4 meeting Level my s1 TV was a +.133 meaning s1 is slow and getting impacted, at the Horse level with pace distortion PD = +.02 meaning in most instances they didnt fight the track bias , but on the 6/4 the TV = .258 this is slow but at the horse level it was -.078 meaning the jockeys ignored the track bias and raced with real intent and were wagered , whereas HV 8/4 TV s1 = -.114 PD = -.139 the jockeys rode with the bias which they normally do at HV for obvious reasons, 25/3 HV S1 was very fast -.256 jockeys rode with it, on the 18/3 HV S1 =-.117 fast early but in this case there was a lot of intent for some runners that were wagered to go out quicker so the PD=-.183.
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Your contributions are excellent W woof43 . You have certainly moved the thread on too new highs with some excellent ideas and methods.

I really need to get back looking at the sectionals now that you have raised the wind effect and O Outlander discussion on it. Was going to mention Britney's win in the first yesterday but as you say no figures for AW that kind of makes it pointless. My speed rating for the Foremost teddy race was way lower than usual so think fair to say she pinched the race. The early sectional for Proud Box was quite nippy and he did well to complete the final sectional as quickly as he did. Certainly good effort to keep going after the start, still slower than the other better race over the same trip.

I will have a look at updating my sectionals, had them running last season but not looked at them properly this. I have ratings for the final 400 and 800 but my standards are probably in need of a look. I had just used percentiles rather than regression and have never used the times per sectional that you have ben posting for race prediction. I know i can convert my ratings backwards and basically the same thing but I like the idea of predicted times and then as you have shown splitting into sectionals for a guide to where they will bein the race.
 
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