Chesham
Sire
Jib like to look for Chasers switching back to hurdles off a lower mark.
Handicap Class Droppers
- Thread starter Tufnel
- Start date
Chesham
Sire
I have never really checked out the Cobnut Method before. It was an interesting exercise. Easy to get the contenders short list and took a a few seconds . Could work well with better class Handicaps and Dutching might be another angle
The Tactical Shift of Cadillac Ranch Before the race, Cadillac Ranch looked like a threat to force the pace alongside Character Testing based on his prior run. Instead, his jockey anchored him in "rear mid-division," completely shifting the tactical map. Shielded from the pace duel, he conserved energy for a massive late run that nearly stole the race at 18/1.
The Jumping Anomaly: Cadillac Ranch's Masterclass The underlying RaceIQ metrics reveal exactly why Cadillac Ranch outran his 18/1 odds: he put on an absolute jumping clinic. He dominated every critical jumping efficiency category:
Post-Race Analysis & Result Review
The race unfolded with a collapsing pace scenario that heavily punished the early speed, validating the pre-race projection that the front end would be vulnerable. The three VDW qualifiers finished 1st, 3rd, and 4th, with Clean Getawayspringing the 11/2 upset by rallying late.| Finish | Horse | SP | In-Running Position | Fate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | (7) Clean Getaway | 11/2 | Chased leaders | Rallied 110yds out, led final strides |
| 2nd | (1) Cadillac Ranch | 18/1 | Rear mid-division | Led 110yds out, headed final strides |
| 3rd | (3) Littletown Lad | 13/8f | Rear mid-division | Led before 2 out, mistake, faded |
| 4th | (2) Character Testing | 3/1 | Led, went clear 2nd | Headed before 2 out, weakened |
Pace Dynamics & RaceIQ Breakdown
The Front-End Collapse Character Testing executed exactly as his profile suggested, securing the early lead and pushing a blistering pace. He clocked the highest Top Speed in the field (36.79 MPH) and the fastest average Entry Speed into the hurdles (31.39 MPH). However, this aggressive early exertion caused him to tie up late, hitting the 4th last, getting bumped at the 2nd last, and ultimately fading to 4th.The Tactical Shift of Cadillac Ranch Before the race, Cadillac Ranch looked like a threat to force the pace alongside Character Testing based on his prior run. Instead, his jockey anchored him in "rear mid-division," completely shifting the tactical map. Shielded from the pace duel, he conserved energy for a massive late run that nearly stole the race at 18/1.
The Jumping Anomaly: Cadillac Ranch's Masterclass The underlying RaceIQ metrics reveal exactly why Cadillac Ranch outran his 18/1 odds: he put on an absolute jumping clinic. He dominated every critical jumping efficiency category:
- Lengths Gained Jumping: +5.28L (1st)
- Time In Envelope: 4.56s (1st)
- Exit Speed: 30.52 MPH (1st)
- Recovery Time: 0.84s (1st)
- Positive Jump %: 87.50% (1st)
VDW Qualifier Performance
The VDW methodology successfully isolated the core contenders in this field.- Clean Getaway (1st): Dropped back to hurdles and capitalized on the collapsing pace. Despite average jumping metrics (+1.55L gained), his tactical positioning behind the speed allowed him to pick up the pieces in the final 110 yards.
- Littletown Lad (3rd): Travelled smoothly into the race exactly as mapped, but his sloppy jumping late (2nd out and the last) cost him the victory.
- Character Testing (4th): Burned too much fuel on the front end, paying the price for his early 36.79 MPH top speed.
Excuse the bad alignment, but I marked the ARs off against the cards a long time ago now.
Pagan Sun 9th of 10 runners.
Merry Jane joint 9th of 20 runners.
It's a blind alley
Chesham as far as solving VDW's solution to the "puzzle' he set us.As too are consistency totals, course winner status, etc.
He said this method was COMPLETELY DIFFERENT to the Chase method. Just as he said the Travado/Rivage Bleu/Valiant Warrior etc method had NOTHING TO DO with what he'd previously written.
I compared Littletown Lad to Merry Jane earlier. Well they weren't quite the same really. She'd done something he hadn't last time out and was doing something he wasn't today.
In fact Aimeric had a bit more in common with Merry Jane, but still hadn't done what she did last time out and when going into the race VDW selected her in.
Look at Cawarra Lad in the same race as Merry Jane. Their trainers had done things a bit differently to arrive at Ludlow that day.
By the way note the jockey on Merry Jane. He's training group winners on the flat these days.
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Thanks
Pitmatic I already had the 6 for VDW's selections, but it's good to have the other races in the period too.
I'm fairly sure VDW didn't look at the selling handicaps or the novice handicaps. He often referred to sellers as scrubber races and never seen an example where he chose a runner from sellers or claiming races. He also warned it would be unwise to rate Novice Handicap hurdles full of un knowns and he never as I recall gave an example in one of those either.
Pitmatic I already had the 6 for VDW's selections, but it's good to have the other races in the period too.I'm fairly sure VDW didn't look at the selling handicaps or the novice handicaps. He often referred to sellers as scrubber races and never seen an example where he chose a runner from sellers or claiming races. He also warned it would be unwise to rate Novice Handicap hurdles full of un knowns and he never as I recall gave an example in one of those either.
I agree. Something that comes up a lot now in handicap hurdles both U.K. and Ireland is the frequent uniformity of first place prize money especially lower down the scale. Many races are simply worth exactly the same to the winner as another. Irish races seem to have very few significant variations and on the flat too with many maiden races worth exactly the same as another.
And when you factor in the inflation element between now and 1985 or earlier, it’s clear that races worth 500 to 1300 pounds over 40 years ago are around 6 times the money now. So movements between races are in larger steps before being significant.
Some days like yesterday show a bunch of runners who’ve been running for exactly the same prize money in their recent races. Which somewhat negates factors VDW seemed to obviously deem important in sorting a race out.
Market Rasen 4:15
Trying to split Spot On Soph, Parikarma and Spit Spot is not easy.
I'm not too concerned about the distance for SOS. It's not like she's going up from 2 miles. She improved for doing that in recent runs and I'd need to look at horses who win at 2m 4f do when going up over 2f over hurdles.
Parikarma and Spit Spot present a dilemma to a degree on class movements.
I think it's a race to leave because any one of those 3 would not surprise me. And there's no real gain from a 3 way dutch.
But in order of preference I'd say Spit Spot, Spot On Soph and Parikarma.
Trying to split Spot On Soph, Parikarma and Spit Spot is not easy.
I'm not too concerned about the distance for SOS. It's not like she's going up from 2 miles. She improved for doing that in recent runs and I'd need to look at horses who win at 2m 4f do when going up over 2f over hurdles.
Parikarma and Spit Spot present a dilemma to a degree on class movements.
I think it's a race to leave because any one of those 3 would not surprise me. And there's no real gain from a 3 way dutch.
But in order of preference I'd say Spit Spot, Spot On Soph and Parikarma.
Market Rasen 4:48
Ratemenow is the last man standing. And if looks a solid bet.
Tramore 2:45
Looking at Ahellofaman, Tingarran Express and Lanzhou in that order.
Splitting them narrows it down to Ahellofaman and Tingarran Express so at the prices I'll back them both.
Tramore 3:55
No qualifiers worth looking at.
One thing I did today was get AI to do the donkey work for me on the stages. Partly to save time but also because filtering and sorting the data manually is that more taxing on my old brain these days. The AI that I use has become much more reliable, provided you remember to ask it to do things that have a correct answer. Even my chat bot reminded me yesterday to not allow LLM to try and asses race outcomes or past performances beyond factual data. Which was a pleasant surprise.
I've been updating my race viewer and it's almost ready. I can now click on a past race in a card and see the full finish of a race with all the usual info but also many of the factors used in Roushayd and the consistency approach. I can who were the consistent horses before the race took place, what the ARs and ranks were, what class and distance of race did each runner come from, etc.
If only I had all of the VDW race data in my database for the seasons involved, I'm sure it would be very revealing. Not to mention time saving.
Ratemenow is the last man standing. And if looks a solid bet.
Tramore 2:45
Looking at Ahellofaman, Tingarran Express and Lanzhou in that order.
Splitting them narrows it down to Ahellofaman and Tingarran Express so at the prices I'll back them both.
Tramore 3:55
No qualifiers worth looking at.
One thing I did today was get AI to do the donkey work for me on the stages. Partly to save time but also because filtering and sorting the data manually is that more taxing on my old brain these days. The AI that I use has become much more reliable, provided you remember to ask it to do things that have a correct answer. Even my chat bot reminded me yesterday to not allow LLM to try and asses race outcomes or past performances beyond factual data. Which was a pleasant surprise.
I've been updating my race viewer and it's almost ready. I can now click on a past race in a card and see the full finish of a race with all the usual info but also many of the factors used in Roushayd and the consistency approach. I can who were the consistent horses before the race took place, what the ARs and ranks were, what class and distance of race did each runner come from, etc.
If only I had all of the VDW race data in my database for the seasons involved, I'm sure it would be very revealing. Not to mention time saving.
Not a bad day, though another lesson in when to stay out. If you can't split 3 of them confidently then leave them all.
Ratemenow put up a good fight and beat the others a long way, but it ran into a first run in a handicap job from a yard who know the time of day.
I messed up the race at Tramore I said had no contenders. Well, my Ai did. It forgot to bypass the flat runs and find the winner's last race in a handicap hurdle. Anyone interested in the method should go back and look at Way Down South's last 2 hurdle races. Somewhat Mithras like.
Tomorrow at Chepstow 3:12 there are 2 that I'm going to support. Captain Hugo and Gibbs Island, and I'd favour CH if pushed to choose, but the prices look ok to go dutch.
Nothing in the 4:17.
4:55 Mostly Sunny, Fasol and Poet Laureate are the shortlist, but I can't split them as they don't have what I think are the traits to look for.
5:31 Getarose, Reel Orange and Siorai again none of them quite have what's required in their situation for this race.
Downpatrick 3:23 Invincible Oscar and Centaq emerge as the best two, so I'll back them both.
Downpatrick 4:30 Youknowme and Hob's Angel look the best pair to support.
Ratemenow put up a good fight and beat the others a long way, but it ran into a first run in a handicap job from a yard who know the time of day.
I messed up the race at Tramore I said had no contenders. Well, my Ai did. It forgot to bypass the flat runs and find the winner's last race in a handicap hurdle. Anyone interested in the method should go back and look at Way Down South's last 2 hurdle races. Somewhat Mithras like.
Tomorrow at Chepstow 3:12 there are 2 that I'm going to support. Captain Hugo and Gibbs Island, and I'd favour CH if pushed to choose, but the prices look ok to go dutch.
Nothing in the 4:17.
4:55 Mostly Sunny, Fasol and Poet Laureate are the shortlist, but I can't split them as they don't have what I think are the traits to look for.
5:31 Getarose, Reel Orange and Siorai again none of them quite have what's required in their situation for this race.
Downpatrick 3:23 Invincible Oscar and Centaq emerge as the best two, so I'll back them both.
Downpatrick 4:30 Youknowme and Hob's Angel look the best pair to support.