synikal
Colt
I want to run a live trial of a football trading strategy I have just started using which is showing early promise. The trading is kept to a minimum and each trade uses a stake of £25.
As with all trading strategies game selection and odds matching is key. I am using a few stats based sites to help my research along with my personal intuition (or 'kiss of death!').
The match research is looking for a good statistical probability of over 2.5 goals and the regularity of both teams scoring. I am looking for a double win on the two markets of BTTS (both teams to score) and over 2.5 goals to maximise profits. A 1-1 CS will also allow for an extra bonus.
Trading positions in the different markets are taken at the start of the match.
Moves are only required if the score is 0-0, or 1-0 after 60 minutes.
I am using Betfair only.
Conditional Staking Plan;
I am looking for matches where the price of BTTS and Over 2.5 goals are @1.80 or above. Using a £25 stake I enter the market pre-match with the following stakes:
Stake of £10 Backed on BTTS @1.80+
Stake of £10 Backed on over 2.5 goals @1.80+
Stake of £2 Backed on 0-0
Stake of £3 Backed on 1-1
I will let the trade run to its conclusion unless the score is 0-0 or 1-0 after 60 minutes. If 0-0 I will green up 0-0 and scratch 1-1 taking a hedged red on over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
If 1-0 I will green up 1-1, scratch (or take a small loss on over 2.5 goals) and red BTTS. Any other score line and we have a trading advantage so can let the trade run until 80 minutes where it can be reassessed. I can either exit the trade or stay in with a probable win on either, 1-1, over 2.5 or BTTS and ideally both Over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
Danger!
The danger positions are;
(a) if there is no goal
(b) or if there are two goals to one side.
If needed I can take out insurance to cover half the stake with a lay of over 0.5 goals will protect us from a 0-0 draw.
A small back of 2-0 and 3-0 at 1-0 will minimise the loss of a 2-0 finish.
Results so far are below. Nothing for Sunday (23/12/12) - If you have a suggestion for a different league please join in with the thread - more suggestions cuts down on the research!
Trades
22/12/12
I have let each trade run so far and not had to fiddle with any positions yet. I like the low liability feature of this trade and the options for cutting losses or take a small profit.
3.00 West Ham v Everton HT 1-0 FT 1-2 £8.30 + £10.20 - 5% - £5 = +£12.57
BTTS; 1.83 O2.5; 2.2 0-0; 10.05 1-1; 7.0
Daily P/L; +£12.57 Total P/L; +£60.57
21/12/12
7.45 Bury v Shrewsbury FT 2-2 £8 +£10.08 - 5% - £5 = +£12.18
BTTS; 1.8 O2.5; 2.08 0-0; 11.0 1-1; 7.0 (Early odds BTTS and both CS may both go out)
1-1 after 10 minutes so BTTS landed (HT 1-1) - I'm going out but leaving it to run as no goal gives us the CS win - £10 and another goal gives us the O2.5 win - £5 - another win no matter what for this strategy!
Daily P/L; +£12.18 Total P/L; +£48.00
18/12/12
7.45 Brentford v Bradford FT 1-1 £10 + £28.20 - 5% - £10 - £2 = +£24.29
BTTS; 2.0 O2.5; 1.92 0-0; 14.0 1-1; 9.4
I let this trade run having secured the BTTS bet. If another goal had been scored it would have been £10 - £5 CS insurance. But the 1-1 CS looked good so I took this as a free bet.
Daily P/L; +£24.29 Total P/L; +£35.82
17/12/12
19:15 Braunschweig v Union Berlin; Profit £8.20 + £9.20 - 5% - £5.00 CS insurance = +£11.53
BTTS; 1.82 O2.5; 1.92 0-0; 14.0 1-1; 8.6
2-2 in first half and and both BTTS and O2.5 landed on 32' FT 4-3
Daily P/L; +£11.53 Total P/L; +£11.53
As with all trading strategies game selection and odds matching is key. I am using a few stats based sites to help my research along with my personal intuition (or 'kiss of death!').
The match research is looking for a good statistical probability of over 2.5 goals and the regularity of both teams scoring. I am looking for a double win on the two markets of BTTS (both teams to score) and over 2.5 goals to maximise profits. A 1-1 CS will also allow for an extra bonus.
Trading positions in the different markets are taken at the start of the match.
Moves are only required if the score is 0-0, or 1-0 after 60 minutes.
I am using Betfair only.
Conditional Staking Plan;
I am looking for matches where the price of BTTS and Over 2.5 goals are @1.80 or above. Using a £25 stake I enter the market pre-match with the following stakes:
Stake of £10 Backed on BTTS @1.80+
Stake of £10 Backed on over 2.5 goals @1.80+
Stake of £2 Backed on 0-0
Stake of £3 Backed on 1-1
I will let the trade run to its conclusion unless the score is 0-0 or 1-0 after 60 minutes. If 0-0 I will green up 0-0 and scratch 1-1 taking a hedged red on over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
If 1-0 I will green up 1-1, scratch (or take a small loss on over 2.5 goals) and red BTTS. Any other score line and we have a trading advantage so can let the trade run until 80 minutes where it can be reassessed. I can either exit the trade or stay in with a probable win on either, 1-1, over 2.5 or BTTS and ideally both Over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
Danger!
The danger positions are;
(a) if there is no goal
(b) or if there are two goals to one side.
If needed I can take out insurance to cover half the stake with a lay of over 0.5 goals will protect us from a 0-0 draw.
A small back of 2-0 and 3-0 at 1-0 will minimise the loss of a 2-0 finish.
Results so far are below. Nothing for Sunday (23/12/12) - If you have a suggestion for a different league please join in with the thread - more suggestions cuts down on the research!
Trades
22/12/12
I have let each trade run so far and not had to fiddle with any positions yet. I like the low liability feature of this trade and the options for cutting losses or take a small profit.
3.00 West Ham v Everton HT 1-0 FT 1-2 £8.30 + £10.20 - 5% - £5 = +£12.57
BTTS; 1.83 O2.5; 2.2 0-0; 10.05 1-1; 7.0
Daily P/L; +£12.57 Total P/L; +£60.57
21/12/12
7.45 Bury v Shrewsbury FT 2-2 £8 +£10.08 - 5% - £5 = +£12.18
BTTS; 1.8 O2.5; 2.08 0-0; 11.0 1-1; 7.0 (Early odds BTTS and both CS may both go out)
1-1 after 10 minutes so BTTS landed (HT 1-1) - I'm going out but leaving it to run as no goal gives us the CS win - £10 and another goal gives us the O2.5 win - £5 - another win no matter what for this strategy!
Daily P/L; +£12.18 Total P/L; +£48.00
18/12/12
7.45 Brentford v Bradford FT 1-1 £10 + £28.20 - 5% - £10 - £2 = +£24.29
BTTS; 2.0 O2.5; 1.92 0-0; 14.0 1-1; 9.4
I let this trade run having secured the BTTS bet. If another goal had been scored it would have been £10 - £5 CS insurance. But the 1-1 CS looked good so I took this as a free bet.
Daily P/L; +£24.29 Total P/L; +£35.82
17/12/12
19:15 Braunschweig v Union Berlin; Profit £8.20 + £9.20 - 5% - £5.00 CS insurance = +£11.53
BTTS; 1.82 O2.5; 1.92 0-0; 14.0 1-1; 8.6
2-2 in first half and and both BTTS and O2.5 landed on 32' FT 4-3
Daily P/L; +£11.53 Total P/L; +£11.53