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Finding contenders with RPR

K

kralken

Gelding
I have been looking at RPR with a view to finding contenders and hopefully the winner using RPR off the racing post. ive been trying this for about 5 days with some success so thought i would share with you on here. Im only using 4yo plus handicaps as more likely to be horses who are not likely to improve much though with racing as you know anything can and does happen. So when i find a hdcp im interested in what the horse card says for example a 0 - 75 Hdcp i then check all the horses to see which horses have an rpr 75 or over. Click on the horse and see what their best rpr is if its less than 75 you can discard them do that for every horse and you will be left with your contenders . Obviously then you can delve further into their form to see if conditions are ideal for them or not
 
Good luck, sounds interesting. I would say in your 0-75 handicap a best RPR of say 77 would be equivalent to an OR of 70 or 71, so is there something to be said for a little gap, maybe a best RPR of 80 for an 0-75 race?

Could be a good way for catching decent horses in handicaps at good prices on the downgrade.
 
I will go through the 1555 at ponte to show how i come to my decision.
its a 0-80 Hdcp 4 yr old plus 18f race. After the first step i am left with 3 horses
Let Me Be best or 72 now 75 rpr 84
Magna Moralia Best or 72 now 78 rpr 81
Never Been To Paris Best or 74 now 74 best rpr 82
Never been to paris is my choice E/W
 
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A great idea, imo, K kralken !
Very interesting.
I used to be a big fan of top RPR decades ago, as was a certain pro-punter I met.

Years of reading folk on racing fora slagging off the RP ( bookie's paper etc), and, especially the knocking of Topspeed, put me off a bit.
Strangely, though, just recently after a torrid Epsom and Ascot, I noticed that RPR pecking order was doing better than OR.
This is the online version, where you can put them in descending order.

Now, all these years later, I still don't know if the much-maligned Topspeed is anything to do with RPR or not, but, whatever about that, I'm glad that this thread has started here, and I'll watch with interest.
Thank you, @krailken.
 
Sandhog said:
A great idea, imo, K kralken !
Very interesting.
I used to be a big fan of top RPR decades ago, as was a certain pro-punter I met.

Years of reading folk on racing fora slagging off the RP ( bookie's paper etc), and, especially the knocking of Topspeed, put me off a bit.
Strangely, though, just recently after a torrid Epsom and Ascot, I noticed that RPR pecking order was doing better than OR.
This is the online version, where you can put them in descending order.

Now, all these years later, I still don't know if the much-maligned Topspeed is anything to do with RPR or not, but, whatever about that, I'm glad that this thread has started here, and I'll watch with interest.
Thank you, @krailken.
Click to expand...

Back the top rated blind over 10+ years of data the OR gives a strike of about 21% and the RPR 25%, dunno about topspeed
 
I am not using top rated RPR i am using any horse who has a qualifying number above or equal to the Hdcp of race 0-75 0-80
so the numbers i am looking for are 75+ or 85+
tomorrow 1900 win Green power 33/1
5 horses passed the first test green power only 1 with favorable OR though there are 4yr olds so no doubt they will improve
Zim Baby
Indian Creek
Ishvari
Concierge
Green Power
 
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All good stuff, K kralken .
That's a severe test of qualification with the OR. I like it; knocks out a lot of my bets, which will be a saving.

Yes, I realise you are not using top OR, but, I think pawras pawras was making a point showing how top RPR beats top OR, historically.

Good luck with this. I hope it proves successful.
 
yes i understand pawras pawras point that RPR is stronger than OR thats why i am using the RPR as my ratings i have always believed there must be a way to consistantly use them to get winners S Sandhog
 
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The reason for using my criteria is that it brings the class animals to the fore and also shows many false favorites so hopefully giving us the value in our betting that is necessary . Also it shows how competitve the actual race is i will be sticking to class 5 and below unless i find a cl 6 that is not as competitive .
 
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Basically i am not using the RPR on the front page of the card as that is more of a prediction of what the horse is maybe able to do with adj weight etc . I look at the actual RPR achieved by the horse in its form and if it has not achieved the mark i require it is eliminated leaving me my contenders . I then check other things to eliminate the rest hopefully leaving 1 or 2 horses that could be the winner . obviously the other checks i dont want to splash on the page but most are the normal checks . however i did not do my checks on yesterdays runner so i failed that time lol pawras pawras
 
Windsor Abandoned so il go over to Chepstow in the 1630
1630 Chep Iconic Knight @ 11/1 E/W
I said no class 6 however this is a 0-65 which i was able to get rid of some dead wood and left me quite a few but with the rest of my criteria i was able to whittle it down to 1, though this is competitive so not an overly confident choice
 
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