Eric Bowers narrowing the field
- Thread starter Olwenba
- Start date
1/2 today, I had reservations about including the 3.50 originally as it just wasn't as well balanced of a handicap as many of my recent races. Ignored my own reservations and still included it, ended up being the losing shortlist. That's me taught a lesson. Anyway 79/111 overall.
Interesting to note the 2nd fav in the race, Am Still here, had a Bower Rating of 30, which if it wins, would be the highest Bower rating so far.. It's a Novice handicap hurdle, anything could happen, and given all the unknown potential that could be in here is probably a race to leave alone but we will go with it and see what happens.
Havent posted much recently but I have been tracking a fair few races over the Xmas period but no real improvement on the 70% I'm currently at. For a basic method I think it holds up okay, and I do like the idea of producing a shortlist of runners in a race to examine further, but going forward I may look at alternative ways to create this.
Back, not with a different method of shortlisting as much but an angle to look at. I do like the idea of having a shortlist of runners to examine further and one angle I've come across on HRB is the LTO odds to runner ratio. It uses LTO numerical odds and the number of runners in the LTO race to come up with a figure. The lower the figure the stronger the horses chance was in relation to the field size. Think its a similar idea ARAZI91 has suggested previously on this thread. 8/1 shot in a 8 runner race would be 8/8= LTO odd2runner ratio of 1. 8/1 in a 4 runner race = LTO odd2runner ratio of 2. Anyway the races I looked at and prefer to examine are handicaps over all code's. Handicap chases, hurdles, novice chases, novice hurdles and flat handicaps. No 2yo nursery's as there's not enough form and I avoid the amateur races . The sample size I looked at had 12,523 races under my preferred races, of which 8,915 races were won by horses with a LTO odds2runner ratio of 1 or less. A S/R of around 71%. Which is exactly the strike rate I had with the Bower method. Of the 12,523 races there were 119,406 runners, those that had LTO odd2runner ratio of 1 or less accounted for 67,153 runners, around 56% of all runners. Again not to dissimilar to the shortlist of runners I had with the Bower method which tried to leave around 50% of runners.
Does anybody use such rating already? I could be a nice starting point for shortlisting going forward.
Does anybody use such rating already? I could be a nice starting point for shortlisting going forward.
Michael231
Gelding
Just had a look at another sample of result going back to Jan last year. 8000 handicap races sampled, not using LTO oddsrunner2ratio but instead using the current race for odds2runner ratio again looking at a figure of 1 or less produced at 84% S/R with a shortlist at around 56% again. Obviously if you looked at morning prices rather then just before the off the results would differ, I haven't yet checked BF odds in relation to all this, these at SP odds incorperated in the figure.
Posting some shortlists for this evening, criteria of shortlists going forward is a minimum of 8 runners, race type of Handicap, handicap chase, handicap hurdle, handicap Novices chase and handicap novices hurdles. No rider restricted races like amateurs only etc.
Only using odds/runners as a template at the moment.
Only using odds/runners as a template at the moment.
| Time | Horse | Track |
| Today 5.30 | Admirable Lad | Kempton (RH) |
| Today 5.30 | Due Date | Kempton (RH) |
| Today 5.30 | Toplight | Kempton (RH) |
| Today 5.30 | Furnicoe (IRE) | Kempton (RH) |
| Today 7.00 | Havana Smoke (IRE) | Kempton (RH) |
| Today 7.00 | Tea Leaf Ted (IRE) | Kempton (RH) |
| Today 7.00 | Chapman (IRE) | Kempton (RH) |
| Today 7.00 | Compton Bay | Kempton (RH) |
| Today 7.00 | Eagle Landed | Kempton (RH) |
| Today 7.30 | No News (IRE) | Kempton (RH) |
| Today 7.30 | Recuerdame (USA) | Kempton (RH) |
| Today 7.30 | Comedian Leader | Kempton (RH) |
| Today 7.30 | Evasive Power (USA) | Kempton (RH) |
| Today 7.30 | Fitzrovia | Kempton (RH) |
1st one of the day, fairly uncompetitive from a market point of view, only 2 making the shortlist. Unsurprisingly the odds on Fav is included. Again solely using just odds/runners to generate a shortlist.
| Time | Horse | Track | Runners |
| Today 1.20 | New York Bay (IRE) | Chelmsford City (LH) | 8 |
| Today 1.20 | Reset Button | Chelmsford City (LH) | 8 |
9 races to look at, I've tweaked the shortlisting process, still using the above races as my criteria. Still using a forecast market but also trialing a form rating. Should start another thread but, we will see how this goes.. Could be a disaster 
| time | track | horse | Form rating |
| 1.00. | Kempton | Jungle Dance (IRE) | 58% |
| 1.00. | Kempton | Moes Legacy | 26% |
| 3.20. | Plumpton | Copshill Lad (IRE) | 69% |
| 3.20. | Plumpton | Lanspark (IRE) | 56% |
| 3.20. | Plumpton | Flemens Tipple (IRE) | 48% |
| 3.20. | Plumpton | Highway One O One (IRE) | 24% |
| 3.35. | Kempton | Magic Fluke (IRE) | 76% |
| 3.35. | Kempton | Enpassant (IRE) | 69% |
| 3.35. | Kempton | Cross The Tracks | 15% |
| 3.35. | Kempton | Dandy Sands (IRE) | 14% |
| 3.40. | Warwick | Rockinastorm (IRE) | 81% |
| 3.40. | Warwick | Shot Boii (IRE) | 72% |
| 3.40. | Warwick | Pilot Show (IRE) | 71% |
| 3.40. | Warwick | Head And Heart | 47% |
| 3.50. | Newcastle | Eagles Realm | 100% |
| 3.50. | Newcastle | Show No Fear (IRE) | 64% |
| 3.50. | Newcastle | Crystal Guard (IRE) | 60% |
| 3.50. | Newcastle | Can Can Girl (IRE) | 59% |
| 3.50. | Newcastle | Zephlyn (IRE) | 49% |
| 3.50. | Newcastle | Ney (IRE) | 41% |
| 3.55. | Plumpton | Nickelforce (IRE) | 60% |
| 3.55. | Plumpton | One Last Glance | 57% |
| 3.55. | Plumpton | Birdman Bob (IRE) | 41% |
| 3.55. | Plumpton | Kauto Kawai (FR) | 19% |
| 3.55. | Plumpton | King Of Lombardy (IRE) | 19% |
| 4.25. | Newcastle | Royal Prospect (IRE) | 61% |
| 4.25. | Newcastle | Sparkling Spirit | 60% |
| 4.25. | Newcastle | Bonito Cavalo | 57% |
| 4.25. | Newcastle | Little Red Dancer | 55% |
| 4.25. | Newcastle | Kananga | 33% |
| 6.30. | Newcastle | Panama City | 91% |
| 6.30. | Newcastle | Eleven Eleven (FR) | 68% |
| 6.30. | Newcastle | Danielsflyer (IRE) | 57% |
| 6.30. | Newcastle | Perfect Swiss | 13% |
| 7.00. | Newcastle | Swiss Ace | 63% |
| 7.00. | Newcastle | Star Zinc (IRE) | 55% |
| 7.00. | Newcastle | Hortzadar | 55% |
| 7.00. | Newcastle | Jahidin (FR) | 55% |
| 7.00. | Newcastle | Irish Flame | 28% |
Lets see if we can improve on yesterday. 9 more races, left out the form rating as a work in progress... Shortlist below
| time | track | horse |
| 1.35. | Leicester | Ballinoulart (IRE) |
| 1.35. | Leicester | Natty Night |
| 1.35. | Leicester | Martalmixjac (FR) |
| 1.35. | Leicester | Rajjamataz (IRE) |
| 1.35. | Leicester | Nine Nine Nine |
| time | track | horse |
| 2.35. | Newbury | Trincomalee |
| 2.35. | Newbury | Island Run |
| 2.35. | Newbury | Kings Threshold (IRE) |
| 2.35. | Newbury | Blairgowrie (IRE) |
| 2.35. | Newbury | Gazette Bourgeoise (FR) |
| 2.35. | Newbury | Earth King (IRE) |
| 2.35. | Newbury | Not At Present (IRE) |
| time | track | horse |
| 2.45. | Leicester | Miltiades (IRE) |
| 2.45. | Leicester | Est Illic (IRE) |
| 2.45. | Leicester | Royal Mer (FR) |
| 2.45. | Leicester | Imperial Alex (IRE) |
| 2.45. | Leicester | Getbazoutofhere |
| time | track | horse |
| 3.20. | Leicester | Tiger Orchid (IRE) |
| 3.20. | Leicester | Oconnell (IRE) |
| 3.20. | Leicester | Mylesfromwicklow (IRE) |
| 3.20. | Leicester | Everythingsontick (IRE) |
| time | track | horse |
| 6.00. | Southwell | Surprise Picture (IRE) |
| 6.00. | Southwell | Counsel |
| 6.00. | Southwell | Autumn Angel (IRE) |
| 6.00. | Southwell | Grant Wood (IRE) |
| 6.00. | Southwell | San Isidro (IRE) |
| time | track | horse |
| 6.30. | Southwell | Clipsham La Habana |
| 6.30. | Southwell | Gobi Sunset |
| 6.30. | Southwell | Razzam (IRE) |
| 6.30. | Southwell | Golden Passport |
| time | track | horse |
| 7.00. | Southwell | Rock Opera |
| 7.00. | Southwell | Shes Centimental (USA) |
| 7.00. | Southwell | Topo Chico (IRE) |
| 7.00. | Southwell | Dark Side Thunder |
| time | track | horse |
| 8.00. | Southwell | Reigning Profit (IRE) |
| 8.00. | Southwell | Evocative Spark (IRE) |
| 8.00. | Southwell | Mondammej |
| 8.00. | Southwell | Lihou |
| time | track | horse |
| 8.30. | Southwell | Polar Princess |
| 8.30. | Southwell | Desert Quest (IRE) |
| 8.30. | Southwell | Smokey Malone |
| 8.30. | Southwell | King Viktor |
| 8.30. | Southwell | Eagle One |
Bit of a disaster this afternoon, 1/4 so far. The betting market is a very powerful weapon, without realising I'm selecting a number of runners outside the constraints of what I'm looking for. How i've done that i've no idea, rushing maybe. Anyway, I think as I'm moving on from the idea of the bowers method (still seeking that 80% s/r with the shortlists) I will put an end to this thread. And seek a new thread in due course.
Revisiting the thread with the Bowers method hopefully being a little more selective I can get the 80% S/R on the shortlists. With the flat season starting I was thinking on primarily focusing on Flat/AW and see where we end up. Anyway the first race on the list today is Lingfield 2.00 16 runners is narrowed down to the 8 below;
There's 3 of particular interest here for me for various reasons, Jockey bookings, RPR's and what I see as a drop in class. The 3 for me are Louisiana Bay, Night Bear and Hurtle.
| Course | Time | Runners | Name | OR | Bowers |
| LINGFIELD | 2:00 | 16 | Louisiana Bay (IRE) | 58 | 8.33 |
| LINGFIELD | 2:00 | 16 | Night Bear | 62 | 14 |
| LINGFIELD | 2:00 | 16 | Largo Bay (USA) | 56 | 14 |
| LINGFIELD | 2:00 | 16 | Fullforward (IRE) | 56 | 18 |
| LINGFIELD | 2:00 | 16 | Curtiz | 58 | 20 |
| LINGFIELD | 2:00 | 16 | Chinthurst | 54 | 20 |
| LINGFIELD | 2:00 | 16 | Hurtle (IRE) | 56 | 20 |
| LINGFIELD | 2:00 | 16 | Velvet Vulcan | 52 | 20 |
There's 3 of particular interest here for me for various reasons, Jockey bookings, RPR's and what I see as a drop in class. The 3 for me are Louisiana Bay, Night Bear and Hurtle.
Shortlist 1/1
Back with a winning shortlist. We move onto today and have one race lined up at Kempton which is the 2.40
Course Time Run Name
KEMPTON (A.W) 2:40 14 Intinso
KEMPTON (A.W) 2:40 14 Old Harrovian
KEMPTON (A.W) 2:40 14 Chillingham (IRE)
KEMPTON (A.W) 2:40 14 Killybegs Warrior (IRE)
KEMPTON (A.W) 2:40 14 Youthful King
KEMPTON (A.W) 2:40 14 Cannon Rock
14 runners down to 8. There's many a runner returning from a break so best to look for a trainer who has their string in decent nick and on that evidence we draw our attention to Intinso, Old Harrovain, Chillingham and Cannon Rock. Of the 4 Intinso is the only one with a recent race and a winning one too, up 8lb but in similar grade can go well again. Cannon Rock and Old Harrovain appear in handicaps for the first time so could be anything. Chillingham drops in trip since the last time when second. Will this trip suit? Think I'll stick with Intinso for this one.
Back with a winning shortlist. We move onto today and have one race lined up at Kempton which is the 2.40
Course Time Run Name
KEMPTON (A.W) 2:40 14 Intinso
KEMPTON (A.W) 2:40 14 Old Harrovian
KEMPTON (A.W) 2:40 14 Chillingham (IRE)
KEMPTON (A.W) 2:40 14 Killybegs Warrior (IRE)
KEMPTON (A.W) 2:40 14 Youthful King
KEMPTON (A.W) 2:40 14 Cannon Rock
14 runners down to 8. There's many a runner returning from a break so best to look for a trainer who has their string in decent nick and on that evidence we draw our attention to Intinso, Old Harrovain, Chillingham and Cannon Rock. Of the 4 Intinso is the only one with a recent race and a winning one too, up 8lb but in similar grade can go well again. Cannon Rock and Old Harrovain appear in handicaps for the first time so could be anything. Chillingham drops in trip since the last time when second. Will this trip suit? Think I'll stick with Intinso for this one.
Kempton 3.15 Shortlist
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Novel Legend (IRE)
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Spirit Mixer
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Tritonic
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Circuit Breaker
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Duty Of Care
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Sleeping Lion(USA)
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Aqwaam
13 runners down to 7. Circuit Breaker is the unknown in here but I do like Duty of care. 2lb lower than when second last year and has a very good record over 2m round Kempton.
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Novel Legend (IRE)
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Spirit Mixer
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Tritonic
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Circuit Breaker
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Duty Of Care
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Sleeping Lion(USA)
KEMPTON (A.W) 3:15 Aqwaam
13 runners down to 7. Circuit Breaker is the unknown in here but I do like Duty of care. 2lb lower than when second last year and has a very good record over 2m round Kempton.
mlmrob
Sire
Thanks
mlmrob