Eric Bowers narrowing the field

[Michael231]

Note: Welljudged is a non-runner, so he is excluded from the calculations.
Bowers Scores: Yarmouth 20:10
Baseline: Tennessee Gold (9st 9lb) is the 0.0 top weight.
Horse Weight Wgt Diff (lbs) Forecast Price Bowers Score
Tennessee Gold 9st 9lb 0.0 7/1 (7.0) 7.0
Ziggy’s Condor 9st 8lb 1.0 9/2 (4.5) 5.5
Rogue Allegiance 9st 7lb 2.0 4/1 (4.0) 6.0
Berry Clever 9st 5lb 4.0 5/1 (5.0) 9.0
Giorgio M 9st 6lb 3.0 8/1 (8.0) 11.0
Noble Guest 9st 7lb 2.0 8/1 (8.0) 10.0
Tactical Plan 9st 6lb 3.0 10/1 (10.0) 13.0
Uppercase 9st 5lb 4.0 12/1 (12.0) 16.0
Middleton View 9st 2lb 7.0 20/1 (20.0) 27.0
Chilly Breeze 9st 5lb 4.0 25/1 (25.0) 29.0
Pace & Player Analysis
This field has a high "Elimination Rate," with half the runners scoring 11.0 or higher.

The Statistical Pick: Ziggy’s Condor
With a Bowers score of 5.5, he is the strongest "all-rounder" today. He gives away very little weight to the top of the handicap and has significant market support to back it up.
The Pace Dictators: Tennessee Gold & Rogue Allegiance
Tennessee Gold is likely to lead or be very prominent. At a score of 7.0, the formula says he is a "Qualified" leader—meaning he has the weight-carrying ability to sustain his effort. Rogue Allegiance (Score 6.0) will likely press him throughout.
The Tactical Threat: Berry Clever
A C&D specialist who often sits in the mid-pack. His score of 9.0 keeps him comfortably within the winning bracket. If the two leaders tire each other out in the headwind, he is the primary beneficiary.
The Outsider: Tactical Plan
Sitting right on the 13.0 cutoff, he is the last horse the system would consider "active." Anything scored higher (like Uppercase or Chilly Breeze) is an automatic elimination for Bowers practitioners.

Final Verdict
The formula narrows this 10-runner race to a four-horse battle:

Ziggy’s Condor (5.5) – The value play.
Rogue Allegiance (6.0) – The pace pressure.
Tennessee Gold (7.0) – The class/weight leader.
Berry Clever (9.0) – The track specialist.

If you are looking for a Bowers "Lock," the duel between Ziggy’s Condor and Rogue Allegiance represents the highest probability of success based on the weight-price ratio.

 

[Michael231]

Kempton 20:00 – Class 4 Handicap (7f)
Baseline: I'm Workin On It (9st 9lb) is the 0.0 top weight.
Horse Weight Wgt Diff (lbs) Forecast Price Bowers Score
I'm Workin On It 9st 9lb 0.0 3/1 (3.0) 3.0
Rock Iguana 9st 5lb 4.0 11/2 (5.5) 9.5
Chalk Mountain 9st 5lb 4.0 7/1 (7.0) 11.0
Port Road 9st 4lb 5.0 9/1 (9.0) 14.0
Al Karrar 9st 9lb 0.0 9/1 (9.0) 9.0
Lexington Jet 9st 6lb 3.0 11/1 (11.0) 14.0

The Statistical Lock: I'm Workin On It
With a score of 3.0, he is the mechanical "apex" of this race. As a C&D winner carrying top weight at a short price, he perfectly embodies the Bowers profile of a horse whose class outweighs the handicap burden.
The Pace Map: I'm Workin On It is a confirmed Front-Runner. In Bowers logic, a leader with a score under 5.0 is the hardest horse to beat because they dictate the "fractions" while carrying the most ability.
The Primary Danger: Rock Iguana
At 9.5, he is the only other runner under the strict 10.0 "elite" cutoff. He is a Stalker who will track the leader. If the top weight falters, he is the only mathematically sound alternative.

Kempton 20:30 – Class 4 Handicap (6f)
Baseline: Many A Star (9st 9lb) is the 0.0 top weight.
Horse Weight Wgt Diff (lbs) Forecast Price Bowers Score
Many A Star 9st 9lb 0.0 11/1 (11.0) 11.0
Hunky Dory 9st 7lb 2.0 5/1 (5.0) 7.0
Change Sings 9st 7lb 2.0 4/1 (4.0) 6.0
Havana Blast 9st 7lb 2.0 4/1 (4.0) 6.0
Irish Nectar 9st 5lb 4.0 8/1 (8.0) 12.0

The Bowers Duel: Change Sings and Havana Blast are tied at 6.0. Both receive 2lbs from the top weight and are heavily backed.
The Pace Map: Many A Star and Hunky Dory are the likely Early Leaders. However, Hunky Dory (Score 7.0) is better positioned mathematically than the top weight.
Strategic Verdict: This is a "Closer's Race." With multiple pace-setters, the 6.0-score horses (Change Sings and Havana Blast) who sit in Mid-Pack are the most likely to mow down the leaders in the final furlong.

Final Betting Guide

Best Bowers Bet: I'm Workin On It (20:00 Kempton) – The cleanest math of the night.
The Dutch Option: In the 20:30, split your stake between Change Sings and Havana Blast to lock in the 6.0 score "Value Sub-book."
The Elimination: Discard Port Road and Lexington Jet in the 20:00; their scores (14.0) suggest they are over-weighted for their current market probability.

 

[Chesham]

 

[Chesham]

I find that HRB and Timeform meet all my needs.
HRB provides the Data for my Class Ratings. (CCR) Performance Ratings (PR%) based Expected finishing position compared to expected when measured against odds and the number of runners

 

[Chesham]

• Today at 12:41 PM

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• #520

Today's Benchmark​

• Race: 5.00 Warwick (2m / Good)
• Today's Median OR (Benchmark): 113
• Base Weight: 11-0 (154 lbs)

Preliminary Pace & Handicap Setup​

We are heading to Warwick for a Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over the minimum 2m trip on Good ground. The Custom Class Rating (CCR) baseline weight remains at 11-0 (154 lbs).

• Pace Map Profile: The Timeform Pace Map flags an "Even" pace forecast. With 9 runners over 2m, an even pace usually results in a fair, true-run race where class and handicap mark (weight) dictate the outcome rather than extreme tactical positioning.
• The Weight Dynamic: This is a very tight handicap, with Official Ratings heavily clustered between 118 and 113, and weights compressed between 12-0 and 11-5.

Here is the fully upgraded Experimental Master Summary Chart for the 5.00 Warwick, tracking the Oldest ➔ Middle ➔ Newest trajectories with complete, unabbreviated Timeform comments.

Experimental Master Summary: Handicap-Adjusted CCR (Full Comments)​

Today's OR Benchmark: Kingston Sunflower (118), Mojito Des Mottes (118), Bluegrass (115), Forget The Way (114), High Fibre (113), Brendas Asking (113), Unjeu Royal (113), Scintillante (109), Chief Sunday (95). Base Weight: 11-0 (154 lbs)

Horse Name	Unadjusted CCR Trajectory (Old TFR + Past OR)	Adjusted CCR Trajectory (Unadjusted CCR - Today's OR)	L3 TFR / Tfig	Full Timeform Race Comments (Last 3 Runs)
Kingston Sunflower	220.00 ➔ 236.00 ➔ 227.00	102.00 ➔ 118.00 ➔ 109.00	TFR:115 ➔ 119 ➔ 106 Tfig:114 ➔ 106 ➔ 76	1. rejoined her former trainer from Ralph Smith prior to an encouraging return on the Flat and proved she retains much of the ability she showed in recording a hat-trick in novices 3 years back, winning an admittedly weak handicap with authority; led after second... quickened clear. 2. has a likeable way of going about things and proved at least as good as ever in defying a 7 lb higher mark, now successful on her last 5 hurdle starts for this yard; made all, went with zest... asserted after last, readily. 3. was seemingly undone by a further rise in the weights contesting a slightly stronger handicap; close up, not fluent fourth, upsides before fifth, went on after 4 out, headed when untidy again 2 out, pecked last, no extra flat.
Mojito Des Mottes	204.00 ➔ 203.00 ➔ 226.00	86.00 ➔ 85.00 ➔ 108.00	TFR:97 ➔ 93 ➔ 113 Tfig:36 ➔ 46 ➔ 94	1. proved easy to back and didn't see his race out with much purpose once more; prominent, took strong hold, jumped left fifth, shaken up approaching 2 out, held when jumped left again last... 2. hasn't progressed so far in Britain but he's been in 3 muddling races and leaves the impression a strongly-run one might be what he really needs; held up, headway 3 out, effort before last, not quicken. 3. shaped well sent handicapping on the back of a breathing operation, seeing his race out with more conviction and looking rather unlucky not to win; patiently ridden, met trouble approaching straight, switched before 2 out, headway when shaken up between last 2, closed all the way to the line.
High Fibre	218.00 ➔ 218.00 ➔ 209.00	105.00 ➔ 105.00 ➔ 96.00	TFR:111 ➔ 111 ➔ 96 Tfig:90 ➔ 113 ➔ 92	1. impressed in capitalising on a falling mark to win his first handicap hurdle back down in trip after 3 months off, always looking to have his rivals covered and giving the impression he may well follow up... 2. escaped a penalty for Kempton and ran every bit as well in defeat a week on, simply bumping into a determined rival at the very top of his game; waited with, smooth headway 3 out, edged ahead run-in, worried out of it. 3. had more on against this opposition than he'd faced at Ludlow just a week earlier; held up, not fluent second, labouring 3 out.
Unjeu Royal	205.00 ➔ 84.00 ➔ 220.00	92.00 ➔ -29.00 ➔ 107.00	TFR:106 ➔ 84 ➔ 112 Tfig:99 ➔ 82 ➔ 88	1. confirmed the promise of his hurdling debut but proved no match for the winner; mid-field, jumped left, headway when switched approaching 2 out, edged left run-in, kept on. 2. wasn't near the level of form he'd shown at Huntingdon 9 weeks earlier and seemingly isn't robust, found to have bled having shaped as if amiss on his final outing in bumpers; in touch, shaken up straight, keeping on when bad mistake last. 3. showed improved form to get off the mark making handicap debut after 11 weeks off; waited with, took second 3 out, shaken up straight, upsides from 2 out, not fluent last, edged ahead close home; sure to go well again.
Bluegrass	234.00 ➔ 198.00 ➔ 209.00	119.00 ➔ 83.00 ➔ 94.00	TFR:113 ➔ 79 ➔ 92 Tfig:95 ➔ 78 ➔ 42	1. ran much better than last time but had previously gone unbeaten in 3 starts at C&D (won this corresponding race last season) and even first-time blinkers couldn't disguise the fact he has lost a bit of his old zip; raced wide... 2. ran one of his lesser races back up in trip and with cheekpieces back on in place of blinkers; in touch, chased leaders home turn, weakened early in straight. 3. has gone off the boil for now; always behind.
Forget The Way	200.00 ➔ 226.00 ➔ 229.00	86.00 ➔ 112.00 ➔ 115.00	TFR:87 ➔ 113 ➔ 112 Tfig:91 ➔ 110 ➔ 57	1. took a step back in the right direction without ever looking like getting to his bigger-priced stable-companion... dropped out, headway after 4 out, went second early in straight, kept on. 2. was back to his best in going one better than over C&D 9 days earlier, kept handier than on that occasion; in touch, travelled well, chased leader 3 out, led approaching last, drew clear run-in. 3. had no excuses from a 4 lb higher mark in a better handicap; chased leader, went on early in straight, headed 2 out, no extra.
Brendas Asking	198.00 ➔ 202.00 ➔ 226.00	85.00 ➔ 89.00 ➔ 113.00	TFR:82 ➔ 86 ➔ 112 Tfig:85 ➔ 22 ➔ 50	1. probably remains in form, paying in the end for forcing the pace; led until 2 out, weakened. 2. stood out on form and wasn't remotely extended to win emphatically, tipping the scales even more in her favour by proving a straightforward ride for a jockey claiming 10 lb; chased leader, led on bridle soon after 2 out, had plenty in hand. 3. had missed a year yet shaped as if back as good as ever behind the market principals; handy, pulled way to front soon after third, headed between last 2, no extra only late on.
Scintillante	216.00 ➔ 189.00 ➔ 189.00	107.00 ➔ 80.00 ➔ 80.00	TFR:108 ➔ 72 ➔ 78 Tfig:90 ➔ 65 ➔ 16	1. hadn't been beaten far back on the Flat last time and showed he's still in top form, just marginally outpaced by his market rival in the dash for home; patiently ridden... led before last, headed final 100 yds... 2. had little chance at the weights, upped so far in class he was 5 lb out of the handicap; waited with, out wide, mistakes second, fourth, lost place approaching straight. 3. was sluggish after 6 months off, suggesting he's no certainty to be right back on song with the run under his belt; raced off the pace, lost ground back straight, struggling before straight.
Chief Sunday	175.00 ➔ 0.00 ➔ 179.00	80.00 ➔ -95.00 ➔ 84.00	TFR:66 ➔ --- ➔ 79 Tfig:23 ➔ --- ➔ 79	1. in first-time tongue strap, ran even worse; went in snatches, off pace second, beaten before 3 out. 2. without a tongue strap this time, looks to have lost his way for now but is tumbling in the weights and could revive after a break knowing his yard; mid-field, dropped away from seventh, first beaten. 3. continues to fall in the weights without showing any sign of taking advantage, always behind in first-time cheekpieces.

Performance Rating Percentage (PR%) Breakdown​

(Metrics read: Oldest ➔ Middle ➔ Newest)

Horse Name	Odds Trajectory	L3 PR% Trajectory	Market Performance Assessment
High Fibre	100/30 ➔ 11/10F ➔ 13/2	80.00% ➔ 50.00% ➔ 33.33%	Elite early season form but regressing as the handicap caught up with him. He smashed expectations at Kempton and Ludlow before failing to fire at Plumpton.
Unjeu Royal	5/4F ➔ 4/1 ➔ 5/2F	60.00% ➔ 42.86% ➔ 60.00%	Massive overperformer when healthy. Forgive the middle run where he was "found to have bled" (mathematical write-off). When right, he crushes market expectation.
Mojito Des Mottes	9/1 ➔ 9/2 ➔ 25/1	16.67% ➔ 33.33% ➔ 75.00%	A verified "Notebook" horse. He produced a massive PR% spike (75%) last time out, turning a 25/1 SP into a very close 2nd place finish.
Forget The Way	15/8 ➔ 15/8F ➔ 4/1	33.33% ➔ 50.00% ➔ 16.67%	He runs to his market price but offers little value above it. His peak PR% (50%) came in a weak claiming hurdle.
Kingston Sunflower	4/1 ➔ 9/4F ➔ 5/2J	60.00% ➔ 66.67% ➔ 20.00%	Elite front-running profile that finally cracked under top weight last time out, causing her PR% to plummet.
Brendas Asking	200/1 ➔ 4/7F ➔ 17/2	21.74% ➔ 66.67% ➔ 50.00%	A highly binary profile. She dominated a weak novice event at 4/7, then managed a decent 50% rating returning from a year off last time out.
Scintillante	11/8F ➔ 50/1 ➔ 16/1	0.00% ➔ 11.11% ➔ -20.00%	A collapsing profile over hurdles. He is consistently failing to meet market expectations.
Bluegrass	11/4 ➔ 12/1 ➔ 13/2	20.00% ➔ 27.27% ➔ -20.00%	Completely out of form and failing the math. He went from underperforming to actively crashing the model last time out.
Chief Sunday	20/1 ➔ 66/1 ➔ 33/1	0.00% ➔ 16.67% ➔ 25.00%

 

[Sullybomb]

View attachment 167348

Just the one race for me of any interest.

 

[Chesham]

Well done Sullybomb , good sp too

 

[DuckandDive]

The ole 1-2-3! BSP 16.0

 

[Chesham]

Well done DuckandDive

Lots of pre race selections on this thread.

 

[Leodis]

The paywall seems to be way they want to go. They'd have to reduce the monthly cost to get paid though. "We" would have to create our own database/form book going forward, maybe not a bad thing.

I agree with ARAZI91 that the younger generation of bettors are data driven and the racing world needs to provide free access to race data, in order to attract them to the sport.

They can download any football stat or result for free from many providers, into their betting models but the racing world gives them breadcrumbs while keeping the good stuff behind a paywall or letting third-party providers do the data management and charging what they want for it. Way to go!

 

[Leodis]

PS I dont think the new look RP is that bad.

Well done with today's bets , DuckandDive & Sullybomb