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Eric Bowers narrowing the field

Michael231 said:
Amazing what the right information used correctly can do, but tomorrow is another day
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The nice thing about Bowers is that there is no obsession with achieving the 80% strike rate that VDW claimed. The problem was when VDW stated early in one season that he had 29 winning bets from around 32 races. Then wrote in under G Hall (Which was VDW’s real name ) to say that he had spotted the Key


Quite a few on there own account went on a quest that the Stray Numbers in the Erin example were Probable Ratings.

The main thing is quite a few members are enjoying their own discoveries with Bowers as a Starting Point. There are no Bowers Experts making cryptic statements, that suggest that they no more than the next person.
 
Chesham said:
The nice thing about Bowers is that there is no obsession with achieving the 80% strike rate that VDW claimed. The problem was when VDW stated early in one season that he had 29 winning bets from around 32 races. Then wrote in under G Hall (Which was VDW’s real name ) to say that he had spotted the Key


Quite a few on there own account went on a quest that the Stray Numbers in the Erin example were Probable Ratings.

The main thing is quite a few members are enjoying their own discoveries with Bowers as a Starting Point. There are no Bowers Experts making cryptic statements, that suggest that they no more than the next person.
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I find it a very interesting topic Chesham Chesham thanks for sharing your views and the screenshots from the old Smartersig magazines, and everyone else who is getting involved. Keeping things simple is certainly something I struggle with when it comes to Horse Racing, this approach/method proves that it doesn't have to be too complicated. (y)

Managed to get a winner using the method in my own interpretation.

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Well done Sullybomb Sullybomb with Brighton Boy.

The Integrated Colosseum Master Summary Chart​

(Includes the newly formulated Unadjusted & Adjusted CCR alongside unabbreviated Timeform Narratives).
HorseBowersUnadj CCR (Last 3)Adj CCR (Last 3)Timeform MetricsFull Timeform Race Comments (Most Recent First)
1 Sujet3.5173.0, 165.8, 155.683.0, 75.8, 65.6Master TFR: 97
TFR: 97, 85, 72
Tfig: 59, 77, 54		1. took a big stride forward from yard debut to almost give new owner a winning return on his chunky investment, always well positioned and looking set fair until the favourite pounced, clear of the rest; led 1f, remained prominent, went on over 1f out, collared final 50 yds.
2. showed promise after 7 months off on first outing since leaving D. K. Weld, for whom he'd raced between 1m and 9f, lasting long enough with the good pace to think he could give new connections (who'd forked out 150,000 gns for him) some fun this year; prominent, every chance over 1f out, no extra only late on.
3. was back on softer going but clearly wasn't 100% on the day, reportedly coughing afterwards; mid-division, ridden 3f out, not quicken, not persevered with once held; well worth another chance.
4 Persuasion11.5168.0, 165.0, 163.482.0, 79.0, 77.4Master TFR: 95
TFR: 95, 85, 80
Tfig: 95, 70, 54		1. mirrored last season's feat of winning here in April, except this year it had taken him 2 runs to put him spot on rather than just one, a rather mixed record in between meaning he was able to race from a mark 3 lb lower this time around, which he just about exploited having always been well placed just behind the contested lead; never far away, effort when got gap final 1f, edged ahead post.
2. won this second time out last year from a higher mark but failed to come on appreciably for his reappearance run this time; held up, pushed along 3f out, one paced.
3. has tended to need his reappearance down the years and looked rusty after 5 months off; dwelt, raced off the pace, outpaced over 2f out, made little impression.
5 Sergeant Wilko18.0165.0, 169.3, 173.880.0, 84.3, 88.8Master TFR: 93
TFR: 88, 87, 93
Tfig: 80, 76, 93		1. was sensibly not asked to lead on this occasion but fared no better than last time; mid-field, pushed along soon after halfway, not quicken.
2. went backwards from reappearance, but he's going to be better off trying to boss lesser rivals; led, pushed along over 2f out, headed over 1f out, weakened; he's got a good record on softer than good with the turf season just around the corner.
3. starts this year on an appealing mark after a low-key end to 2025 and made a sound return from 4 months off having undergone a breathing operation during his time off, never easy to dominate a race like this here; led, ridden over 2f out, headed over 1f out, kept on.
6 Perfect Part12.0166.4, 164.8, 102.581.4, 79.8, 17.5Master TFR: 94
TFR: 88, 91, ---
Tfig: 79, 83, 3		1. ran to a similar level as in the Spring Mile 15 days earlier but was never seen with a winning chance, again lacking a change of gear; mid-field, pushed along 3f out, not quicken.
2. has been given a chance by the assessor, 7 lb lower than when last contesting a handicap, and offered something to work on after 6 months off, if anything looking suited by the longer trip; broke on terms, raced far side, waited with, headway under pressure under 2f out, kept on.
3. was well held after just 7 days off; very slowly away, labouring over 2f out, always behind.
8 Mudamer17.5162.8, 163.2, 147.480.8, 81.2, 65.4Master TFR: 92
TFR: 91, 92, 65
Tfig: 57, 92, 41		1. had usual cheekpieces back on and, although unable to justify support, again ran well with recent return behind him; led, effort towards stand side over 2f out, tackled from 2f out, headed final 1f, kept on, had the run of the race; can continue to give a good account.
2. reverted to the tactics that had worked so well twice around Catterick last autumn and ran up to his best after 5 months off; raced near side, led group, pushed along under 3f out, kept on, first home in group.
3. found run of good form coming to a halt back up in grade, under a much more patient ride than for his 2 recent wins; held up, ridden early in straight, made no impression.
9 Brighton Boy19.0159.6, 159.8, 159.478.6, 78.8, 78.4Master TFR: 86
TFR: 85, 82, 82
Tfig: 75, 47, 57		1. failed to come on for recent run, though was caught a bit wide from his draw; prominent, ridden home turn, close up 1f out, weakened.
2. absent 8 months ahead of first start since leaving Andrew Balding for 20,000 gns, went without the cheekpieces and is entitled to do better with this run behind him; mid-field, raced freely, ridden over 2f out, plugged on final 1f.
3. struggled faced with a much tougher task than last time; raced freely, led until over 1f out, weakened.
10 Glenfinnan20.0146.0, 127.0, 125.466.0, 47.0, 45.4Master TFR: 90
TFR: 71, 41, 29
Tfig: 64, 27, 6		1. ran better than last time, racing closer to the pace than ideal and likely to be eligible for 0-80s for the first time in his career when next seen, probably worth a second look at such a level given he's back down a good mark on the pick of his 2025 form; chased leader, typically took strong hold, ridden over 2f out, held when hampered over 1f out, faded.
2. without the headgear this time, wasn't seen to best effect after 5 months off from his high draw on the wing but he proved more miss than hit in 2025; mid-field, took strong hold, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out.
3. back in headgear, ran poorly having reverted to his headstrong ways; raced off the pace, took strong hold, hung right over 1f out, eased off.
 
Sullybomb said:
I find it a very interesting topic Chesham Chesham thanks for sharing your views and the screenshots from the old Smartersig magazines, and everyone else who is getting involved. Keeping things simple is certainly something I struggle with when it comes to Horse Racing, this approach/method proves that it doesn't have to be too complicated. (y)

Managed to get a winner using the method in my own interpretation.

View attachment 167252
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Good to see others using it and incorperating their own ideas. Its always a method i have come back too time and time again. Simple but effective at narrowing the field. Excellent use of the method and a nice price of the winner.
 
One thing to consider with the elimination

one of Leodis Leodis examples from the 2 winners that he highlighted pre race, was Sterling Knight. Today’s win not included in the data profile below

IMG_0198.jpeg


When a horse is galloping, its gait is asymmetrical, meaning the sequence of footfalls is not perfectly mirrored on both sides. In this gait, one foreleg and one hind leg will reach further forward than the others—this is known as the lead leg.

Racehorses change their lead legs during a race for three primary reasons: fatigue management, cornering balance, and tactical acceleration.

1. Fatigue Management and Muscular Efficiency​

The most critical reason horses change legs is to delay fatigue. During a full gallop, the lead foreleg acts as a pivot and bears the entire weight of the horse (often exceeding 1,000 lbs) plus the multiplied force of momentum at a specific point in the stride cycle.

Because the workload is unbalanced, the muscles, tendons, and ligaments on the leading side tire much faster than those on the non-leading side. By switching the lead leg, the horse shifts the biomechanical burden to the opposite side of its body. This allows the fatigued muscles a brief active recovery while maintaining top speed, maximizing stride efficiency over a distance.

2. Navigating Turns and Centrifugal Force​

Just like a motorcycle leans into a bend, a horse must adjust its balance to counteract centrifugal force when navigating a turn at high speed.

  • Inside Lead: To maintain balance and maximize speed, a horse must lead with its inside leg around a bend. On a left-handed track (like Epsom or Cheltenham), the horse must be on the left lead around the turns. On a right-handed track (like Ascot or Sandown), it must be on the right lead.
  • Changing on the Straight: A horse will typically run on its "wrong" (outside) lead down the straightaways so that it is fresh to switch to the "correct" (inside) lead right as it hits the turn.
If a horse fails to switch to the correct inside lead on a bend, it will lose its balance, drift wide, and bleed momentum.

3. Tactical Acceleration (The "Kick")​

You will often see jockeys actively ask their horse to change legs as they come off the final bend and enter the homestretch. This tactical maneuver taps into the rested side of the horse's musculature.

When a horse successfully executes this switch, the fresh muscles provide an immediate, visible burst of kinetic energy and renewed stride length. This is often what commentators refer to when they say a horse "found another gear" or "quickened" in the closing furlongs. Conversely, if a horse is deeply fatigued and refuses or struggles to change legs when asked, their stride frequency usually drops, and they will struggle to finish the race strongly.

The Biomechanics of Track Bias​

Sterling Knight’s profile is a perfect, real-world example of how lead leg dominance dictates a horse's optimal racing conditions. His victory today on Newmarket's straight Rowley Mile aligns beautifully with a horse that possesses a pronounced biomechanical asymmetry.

Just like humans are naturally left or right-handed, many racehorses are deeply "one-sided." In Sterling Knight's case, his winless record on right-handed tracks combined with his success going left-handed strongly implies a heavy dominance for his left lead leg.

Here is how that mechanical preference translates directly into his track record:

  • Left-Handed Tracks: The horse can naturally drop onto his preferred left lead to navigate the turns. He remains perfectly balanced against the centrifugal force, maintaining his momentum without fighting his own anatomy.
  • Straight Tracks: On straight courses like Newmarket, centrifugal force is entirely removed from the equation. Without the pressure of a bend dictating balance, a one-sided horse is free to gallop entirely on their terms, utilizing their dominant leg when they need maximum power.
  • The Right-Handed Penalty: When asked to tackle right-handed bends, a left-dominant horse faces a biomechanical dilemma. If they refuse to switch and stubbornly stay on their left lead, they will lean outward against the curve, drifting wide and burning excessive energy. If they are forced onto their weaker right lead to make the turn, their stride frequency and efficiency plummet.
This physical bias is exactly why certain horses can look like entirely different animals depending on the orientation of the course.
 
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