Sullybomb
Gelding
I'm with you
TheBluesBrother with Cancelled.
Daily Racing Insight
- Thread starter mlmrob
- Start date
TheBluesBrother with Cancelled.
pete
Sire
Tamzan was the only selection I had from
TheBluesBrother ratings today. After running through my layer checks the horse was a "yes" bet
Cancelled showed up second on my interpretation of the ratings, but is discounted as a runner that likes to sit off them and strike late, the slow projected pace was the main thing to rule that one out.
TheBluesBrother ratings today. After running through my layer checks the horse was a "yes" betFinal Betting Synthesis & Conclusion
We have now layered all the necessary information, strictly following your weighting parameters. Here is the final profile for Tamzan:- Primary Speed Figures (30-40% Weight): PASS. Ranked #1 overall with a Gap of -1.33, comfortably clearing the +3.0 Target Differential threshold.
- Layer 1: Ground/Going (10-15% Weight): PASS. Proven ability to run peak numbers (MR 54) on Good to Firm ground over a mile.
- Layer 2: Pace/Draw (10-15% Weight): PASS. Maps perfectly as a prominent runner (91%) in a race forecast to have a very slow pace.
- Layer 3: Extended Form/Class (10-15% Weight): PASS. The only horse dropping in class (from 0-80 down to 0-75) while simultaneously dropping 2lb in the weights.
- Layer 4: Sectionals/Runstyle (10-15% Weight): PASS. Proven ability to unleash a massive sprint off a slow pace (110.80% FSP), mathematically clocking faster closing sectionals than the primary speed danger.
- Layer 5: Jockey/Trainer Form (10-15% Weight): PASS. Both Rob Hornby and Marcus Tregoning are in red-hot form (23% and 17% win rates over the last 14 days) and have excellent course stats.
Cancelled showed up second on my interpretation of the ratings, but is discounted as a runner that likes to sit off them and strike late, the slow projected pace was the main thing to rule that one out.
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I don't think i've read this sort of approach from yourselfTamzan was the only selection I had from
Final Betting Synthesis & Conclusion
We have now layered all the necessary information, strictly following your weighting parameters. Here is the final profile for Tamzan:
The Final Verdict:Tamzan is an exceptional betting target. She passes every single layer of our analytical model without raising a single red flag. Her tactical profile perfectly exploits the vulnerabilities of her main rivals, and her connections are in peak form. She warrants a confident bet.
- Primary Speed Figures (30-40% Weight): PASS. Ranked #1 overall with a Gap of -1.33, comfortably clearing the +3.0 Target Differential threshold.
- Layer 1: Ground/Going (10-15% Weight): PASS. Proven ability to run peak numbers (MR 54) on Good to Firm ground over a mile.
- Layer 2: Pace/Draw (10-15% Weight): PASS. Maps perfectly as a prominent runner (91%) in a race forecast to have a very slow pace.
- Layer 3: Extended Form/Class (10-15% Weight): PASS. The only horse dropping in class (from 0-80 down to 0-75) while simultaneously dropping 2lb in the weights.
- Layer 4: Sectionals/Runstyle (10-15% Weight): PASS. Proven ability to unleash a massive sprint off a slow pace (110.80% FSP), mathematically clocking faster closing sectionals than the primary speed danger.
- Layer 5: Jockey/Trainer Form (10-15% Weight): PASS. Both Rob Hornby and Marcus Tregoning are in red-hot form (23% and 17% win rates over the last 14 days) and have excellent course stats.
Cancelled showed up second on my interpretation of the ratings, but is discounted as a runner that likes to sit off them and strike late, the slow projected pace was the main thing to rule that one out.
pete before today, those layers are easily understood to a large extent but how do you arrive at the 10 - 15%, also can you say more about "PRIMARY SPEED FIGURES 30 - 40%.The logic behind the thought that a lack of pace wouldn't suit CANCELLED was spot on and having watched the race again i belive didn't help VENETIAN SKY who having been held up lacked the speed needed to overall TAMZAN who might now have been a fortunate winner for the second time.
So this "FINAL BETTING SYNTHESIS" might be of great interest going forward.
pete
Sire
Its just a basic check of each of the things I would look at normally when evaluating a race.
The first step here is to start with speed figures. I take the average of the best 3 from last 6 runs. Then look for a standout as a starting point.
This method starts from a pure look at speed figures. So that target and the 30/40% has to be the main focus for this particular method.
From there .. i check the "target horse" for track and trip and going suitability by uploading extended profiles to look at the conditions under which the horse has run its best numbers ... then compare those to the race today.
Then I use a couple of services to look at the pace / draw v the competition and ensure we can be competitive in this race v this opposition.
At each stage I ask for a red flag / green flag / yellow flag ...
If the horse fails two or more of the steps its a pass on the for me and I move on to the next target.
The % was really just to try and make the ai understand not to overreact to positive or negative stats in just one of the categories.
Before I introduced this it would wildly swing negative if it found for example that a horse had never won at 1 mile ... even though it had won at 7f and 1m1.
This way it understands that a negative only accounts for a small portion of the overall deep dive .. and will proceed as normal unless two red flags or a few yellow flags emerge.
The rest is pretty self explanatory.
If the horse passes the track / trip / going and pace / draw then we move on to look at class bands where it has been competitive in the past to ensure it is running at the correct level today at which it can be competitive. I also upload the profile of any dangers identified in the speed / pace models too so we can evaluate against the main competition.
Then I ask which sectionals we need to look at in more depth in order to confirm or rule out any of those main dangers v the target horse ... and finally I upload a jockey and trainer table showing form for last 1 or 2 years and last 14 days to look for positives or negatives with connections.
That covers most basics .. and allows me to target based on the main subject of the initial "way in" to the race (the speed figures) and check most other things without sending the bot off on random thoughts and wild swings in moods as i move from layer to layer.
I found the more you allow it to think for itself.. the less useful it becomes. So i keep it on a tight string and explain up front what we are doing, what we are looking for and what the full process looks like for each step before we even start.
Its using and pulling the info I feed it without being able to think. Just tell me what is there ... i don't need you to be thinking about it. Just read the data and report back.
The first step here is to start with speed figures. I take the average of the best 3 from last 6 runs. Then look for a standout as a starting point.
This method starts from a pure look at speed figures. So that target and the 30/40% has to be the main focus for this particular method.
From there .. i check the "target horse" for track and trip and going suitability by uploading extended profiles to look at the conditions under which the horse has run its best numbers ... then compare those to the race today.
Then I use a couple of services to look at the pace / draw v the competition and ensure we can be competitive in this race v this opposition.
At each stage I ask for a red flag / green flag / yellow flag ...
If the horse fails two or more of the steps its a pass on the for me and I move on to the next target.
The % was really just to try and make the ai understand not to overreact to positive or negative stats in just one of the categories.
Before I introduced this it would wildly swing negative if it found for example that a horse had never won at 1 mile ... even though it had won at 7f and 1m1.
This way it understands that a negative only accounts for a small portion of the overall deep dive .. and will proceed as normal unless two red flags or a few yellow flags emerge.
The rest is pretty self explanatory.
If the horse passes the track / trip / going and pace / draw then we move on to look at class bands where it has been competitive in the past to ensure it is running at the correct level today at which it can be competitive. I also upload the profile of any dangers identified in the speed / pace models too so we can evaluate against the main competition.
Then I ask which sectionals we need to look at in more depth in order to confirm or rule out any of those main dangers v the target horse ... and finally I upload a jockey and trainer table showing form for last 1 or 2 years and last 14 days to look for positives or negatives with connections.
That covers most basics .. and allows me to target based on the main subject of the initial "way in" to the race (the speed figures) and check most other things without sending the bot off on random thoughts and wild swings in moods as i move from layer to layer.
I found the more you allow it to think for itself.. the less useful it becomes. So i keep it on a tight string and explain up front what we are doing, what we are looking for and what the full process looks like for each step before we even start.
Its using and pulling the info I feed it without being able to think. Just tell me what is there ... i don't need you to be thinking about it. Just read the data and report back.
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A bit of support for this thread even on the sunday, maybe tomorrow's 7.15 notts could also encourage some enthusiasm.
I have a rather simple approach in that Owen Burrows has run his filly DIANE CHASSERESSE 3 times now and possibly aimed at getting a favourable mark, that's how it work's.
I'm always suspicious when horses are slow out of the gates at the best of times simply because it is the easiest way to play the game, it's never going to be easy to argue the case and it is just my opinion that this filly's mark might be a few pounds higher if she had been ridden with more zest, particularly lto, she was last out of the traps and managed to pass a few late on without much assistance as i see it in what looked to be a reasonable novice with some rated in the 80s, so if we take that view that she was ridden gently, in a decent novice and now upped another 2f maybe ?
This race is effectively a 0-65 cl6 so unless i'm talking crap any ability close to the 70+ mark would be good enough, bet365 just opened 4/1, will watch for any movement.
I have a rather simple approach in that Owen Burrows has run his filly DIANE CHASSERESSE 3 times now and possibly aimed at getting a favourable mark, that's how it work's.
I'm always suspicious when horses are slow out of the gates at the best of times simply because it is the easiest way to play the game, it's never going to be easy to argue the case and it is just my opinion that this filly's mark might be a few pounds higher if she had been ridden with more zest, particularly lto, she was last out of the traps and managed to pass a few late on without much assistance as i see it in what looked to be a reasonable novice with some rated in the 80s, so if we take that view that she was ridden gently, in a decent novice and now upped another 2f maybe ?
This race is effectively a 0-65 cl6 so unless i'm talking crap any ability close to the 70+ mark would be good enough, bet365 just opened 4/1, will watch for any movement.
mlmrob
Sire
She piqued my interest
T
tacker with this Timeform comment
Report: after 7 weeks off, was still green but again showed a bit; very slowly away, in rear, denied a run over 2f out, forced to switch over 1f out, still plenty to do entering final 1f, steady headway late on, not unduly punished; appeals as the type who can take off in handicaps as her stamina is drawn out (will be suited by 1¼m+).
She has a nice pedigree that will be suited by the step up to 10f, half sister to Alfred Boucher, rated 104 at his peak. The dam was unraced but she was a half sister to Mores Wells, rated 115 at his peak. Dam sire was Authorized.
Report: after 7 weeks off, was still green but again showed a bit; very slowly away, in rear, denied a run over 2f out, forced to switch over 1f out, still plenty to do entering final 1f, steady headway late on, not unduly punished; appeals as the type who can take off in handicaps as her stamina is drawn out (will be suited by 1¼m+).
She has a nice pedigree that will be suited by the step up to 10f, half sister to Alfred Boucher, rated 104 at his peak. The dam was unraced but she was a half sister to Mores Wells, rated 115 at his peak. Dam sire was Authorized.
Hmm, Timeform are very good at this sort of analysis
mlmrob , appreciate the response.Have you just taken the profit now and not allowing it to run but with stake money safe
mlmrob ?Anyway my saver was accepted at 2.72 so still need the win for a profit but without the risk of losing my stake.Have you just taken the profit now and not allowing it to run but with stake money safe