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    AR

Consistent Form

enoch said:
chilled you say Lee worked from lists how many do you think was on his list ,as its something i have never done and only back big festivals and saturdays
how many 100 or 20?
Click to expand...

What most use as the selection method is what Lee 'appeared' to use to add horse's to his list.Rather than looking at a race as a seperate entity he evaluated all relevant races every day and when a horse appeared to be 'on the boil',placement became the deciding factor as to if a bet was placed or not.
 
what the horse done inside the distance......a wee lights came on dbmb
i,ve always sat at the computer and said right lets dig one out
the trick is to sit with weekender or whatever and watch for horses with good speed figures finishing with good comments,then give it 3 runs to be placed right
christ i,ve always started from scratch.....o well...Les
 
speed no use without form so its the first 4 home? ties in with the old fellow....are these the ones being marked off?

and its a rolling list...Doooh
 
The way I look at it Enoch is this(and I stand to be corrected on this),Lee looked at things differently to EVERYONE else but he had FAR MORE success than anyone that had posted at that time.There for LOGIC dictates he was doing something different or something more.He shared the views of many others on occassion so if his views were not different then it has to be his application of that view.

Of course I could be wrong after all I dont have the benefit of Lee's input to confirm or deny my view but the proof was never on the bottle that was just a label ;)
 
enoch said:
what the horse done inside the distance...
Click to expand...
Ah ha. The old "what it did or didn't do from the distance" nudge nudge wink wink. ;)

Here is the form from the Roushayd example. His three races leading up to his win, starting with the most recent.
Code: 
03Jun88 - Eps 12Gd Hc 22K 9-9 - Postion 6/9 (9½L Billet 9-0) 12/1 B Rouse
Headway 5f out, 3rd straight, hung right, one pace final 2f

14May88 - Nby 13Fm 7K 9-0 - Postion 4/9 (3¼L Merce Cunningham 8-7) 10/1 B Rouse
4th straight, every chance 2f out, unable quicken

14Apr88 - Nmk 12Gd Hc 5K 9-4 - Postion 3/8 (4L First Division 8-2) 5/1 S Cauthen
Every chance 2f out, ridden, ran on final furlong
I can't see any "quickened to challenge" etc in there. So I think perhaps the "what it did or didn't do from the distance" comment might apply in races where the CR seems to apply (from Chilled's earlier Lee pastings).

Happy head scratching. :confused:

(Don't tell Larry I edited this post will you. I'm in enough trouble as it is. Thanks :whistle: )
 
Enoch

Lee posted

Lists put you ahead because they immediately stop you looking for things that aren't there i.e. the winner of every race that you look at and that urge to bet to justify the time you've just spent in analysing it. With the aid of lists you will be studying races with horses in them that you know are capable of winning given the right circumstances – you will be looking to see if your horse is that winner in the race.

Particularly in Handicap races the majority of the field are there NOT to win, but instead being trained/readied to win. A horse needs to be in tiptop condition before the plan can be executed and the trainer, using a number of tactics, will do this at the racetrack. These tactics will include running their horse over an inadequate distance, on going it doesn't perform on, on a course that doesn't suit its running style, in a class that is too high, having it ridden in a way that will give it no chance, or a combination of all of these.

This will enable the trainer to get his horse fit and at the same time bring it down the handicap a few pounds, which can often give the trainer more entry options.
 
Cheers for the above post Chilled,I do have it and others on disc but can't access them at the moment.

EDIT; The above post ties in nicely with part of what I was actually hinting at.

Happy hunting ;) ;)
 
DBMB

No problem mate, hope your feeling better btw.

Enoch

VDW showed how to compile a few lists, which I think Lee also worked from.
 
Hello all,

Lee says Byron had something in it's last 3 runs that no other horse had. The obvious thing is b won a g2 then ran in 2 g1s before being dropped to a g2 which it won. In that race only crystal castle had previously won a g2 but was then dropped into a g3 which it lost then proceeded to go up and down in class repeatedly
 
Lee in reply to JohnD,

I can honestly say that although I make myself aware of who is in the plate, it would NEVER stop me making a bet when things line up.

Byron was consistent, in terms of the numerical picture; however, like I’ve posted above it wasn’t necessary in this situation. It was the form of his last 3 runs that gives the game away, and in this situation Byron had something in each run, that NO other horse had.




3rd LTO




An up-to-scratch renewal of this Group 2 prize, and a boost for the Gimcrack form, the front 2 both having come from that race; Born In America seemed to be in the race as pacemaker for Grand Reward, though it was a while before he picked up the gallop in front and the favourite was a little isolated from it when he did, drawn where he was. BYRON was a huge price considering he had actually passed the post in front of the favourite last time, though he found a bit more improvement to win, typically impressing with the way he travelled off the pace and showing a good turn of foot to go clear from over 1f out, wandering a bit but always looking like holding on; a smart juvenile, the Middle Park would be the obvious next race for him but his trainer presumably has that race in mind for Kheleyf as well; this win also saw Byron introduced into the 2000 Guineas betting but speed looks his forte at this stage and he wouldn't be sure to get 1m



2nd LTO




BYRON wasn't certain to stay but saw the trip out on his reappearance, chasing the leader and keeping on after leading from under 2f out until inside the last; he'd been trained by David Loder at 2 yrs when raced only at 6f on good to firm ground, winning the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury on his final start; he probably wouldn't be inconvenienced by a drop back in trip



LTO


Note English, Irish and German 2000 Guineas winners in opposition, plus Antonius Pius and the placed horses from the French equivalent as well as pattern winners such as Azamour and Pearl of Love, this looked every inch what it should be_a midsummer championship for 3-y-o milers;




BYRON, after getting a bit above himself in the preliminaries, ran just a fair race, fading after 2f out, having been slightly impeded by the winner; even though his best form is at 1m, he leaves the impression a drop back to shorter might benefit.

Dropped in Class & Distance plus is noted as having a turn of foot
 
Thanks Chesham, I don't normally sign in to the rp site so missed that.

However if the factor has to occur in all 3 runs then Byron has 2 things in its form or maybe it's one thing made of 2 factors. Thanks for your help and merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous New year
 
hedgehog said:
Thanks Chesham, I don't normally sign in to the rp site so missed that.

However if the factor has to occur in all 3 runs then Byron has 2 things in its form or maybe it's one thing made of 2 factors. Thanks for your help and merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous New year
Click to expand...

Just check out the 2nd Numerical Picture

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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